Motzei Shabbat (After Shabbat)

We have a government.  I felt reasonably confident this would be the case by now -- as the deadline for Netanyahu has run out and Obama is coming this week.  But it's been an insufferably long and complex road getting to that coalition.

I had actually begun a posting last Thursday, when a coalition seemed to be in place. And then I stopped, because yet another roadblock had appeared.

Now, I am less inclined to cover all the ground I would have covered two days ago.  Let me simply make some more general observations.

~~~~~~~~~~

No matter how you view this just-completed process of coalition formation, Netanyahu is the loser.  He has made a series of regrettable errors, beginning perhaps with the inclusion of Tzipi Livni -- if not before, with his attacks on Habayit Hayehudi.  His image as a savvy individual who can turn internal political situations to his liking has been badly tarnished. 

Last week, what he did was to demonstrate -- hardly for the first time -- that he caves. 

This was with regard to Lapid's demands that Rabbi Shai Piron be Education Minister in place of Gideon Sa'ar.  He was publicly adamant: "No no and no! Take it or leave it."  Had he said, "Well, I'm not in favor, but I have to consider all ramifications and then we'll see," it would have felt different. 

Yes, there was a deal that was offered, to make it more palatable for him to back down (and more on this below).  I understand, for example, that Bennett and Lapid agreed to withdraw a demand that Livni's role be reduced.  But the overall appearance of backing down was unfortunate.

What we were reminded of, in the course of this dispute, is that if he says, "No, I will not remove Jewish residents of Judea and Samaria from their homes," it is not necessarily something we can count on.  And Obama is due in days.

~~~~~~~~~~

Then what happened is that Netanyahu had agreed that both Bennett and Lapid would have the (honorary) title of Deputy Prime Minister. But when the papers were offered for signing, it was discovered that this had been excised.
"How can I trust you?" Bennett asked, with very good reason, as he declined to sign.

This was, quite simply inexcusable.  With only two days to go, it was a pathetic stunt.  Perhaps vindictive, because he had been pushed into caving on something he wanted.  Perhaps -- as well placed sources in Likud are rumored to have said -- he did this at his wife's bidding.  It doesn't matter.  The decision was his.

The coalition was finally able to come together because Bennett and Lapid agreed to relinquish their titles.  And so, just under the line, Netanyahu was able to report to President Peres that he has a coalition.  This happened about an hour ago, as I am now writing. If he looks happy in the picture below, it's simply because he's got himself a government.  Pheww!  Not that he has the government of his choice.

 
Credit: Times of Israel
 
~~~~~~~~~~

If Netanyahu has been a political loser during this process, it is quite obvious that Bennett and Lapid have been the winners.  These are two men whose political stars are definitely rising -- which is discomfiting Netanyahu more than just a bit.  That fourth term as prime minister, to which he aspires, is looking less and less likely.

Bennett has been hailed as a peace maker -- for it was he, doing shuttle diplomacy, who managed to arrange the deal on the education minister.

What is most remarkable here is that the bond between Bennett and Lapid has not been broken in the course of everything that has gone on -- and in spite of the fact that politically they do not always agree. This is said to be a personal bond formed out of mutual respect and jointly agreed determination to act on principle.

It should only be!  And only time will tell.  A political alliance built on principle and mutual respect?  This would signal an incredible new day in politics, and great things for the nation. But I'm not ready to celebrate yet.

I've already written about, and continue to feel, an unease about Lapid because he is too sure of himself for a political novice, and exhibits more than a bit of arrogance.   But quite frankly, in the face of how Netanyahu has behaved of late, the fact that there are new faces, new people with declared principles, seems to me very definitely a positive for our future.

There are serious questions being asked about how long this coalition, with its built in tensions, can last.

~~~~~~~~~~ 

The 33rd government will consist of four factions totaling 68 mandates -- Mofaz, with his Kadima party, was not included. 

There are certain agreements that have been reached.  The size of the government has been downscaled -- something that was necessary: A technique for handling political assignments for all coalition factions without pain has been to increase the number of ministries. Now there will be roughly 21 ministers plus some deputy ministers.  Some responsibilities that would have been assigned ministry positions are being categorized otherwise.  There is an agreement that next time there will be only 18 ministers. 

A bill will be introduced requiring the electoral threshold to be five mandates. 

I will table for now what is being proposed regarding army and national service for haredi yeshiva students -- as this highly contentious issue requires a closer look.

~~~~~~~~~~

According to the Jerusalem Post, there is still some disagreement about party assignments, even though the coalition agreements have been signed.  We may not have final assignments in all instances until the swearing-in on Monday.

The new government is certainly not bad in all respects and actually has some quite promising things going for it:

Bennett will be part of the Security Cabinet, which is good, and both Bennett and Lapid will serve in the special committee overseeing the "peace process," along with Netanyahu, Ya'alon (Defense Minister) and Livni, as negotiator. 

How Lapid will stand on negotiation-related issues remains to be seen, and is a matter of no small importance.  He is, as far as I can determine, somewhere between Livni and Bennett in his position.  Livni has already attacked Habayit Hayehudi, which she sees as an obstacle to her desire to achieve an "agreement."   She says that she hopes Lapid doesn't move over to where Bennett is.

~~~~~~~~~~

Bennett will head an expanded Religious Affairs portfolio.  Some very positive changes may come from this.  It is my understanding that his deputy, Rabbi Eli Ben Dahan, will be given free reign in most matters.

Extremely welcome news is the fact that Uri Ariel (Habayit Hayehudi) will be Housing Minister.

It is also welcome news that Moshe Ya'alon (Likud) will be Defense Minister -- especially as rumors had Mofaz in this position.  Ya'alon is a solidly good guy, but not primarily an ideologue -- he tempers his positions according to the political situation. 

What is disconcerting is that his deputy will be Ofer Shelah (Yesh Atid), a leftist with anti-"settlement" leanings.  We'll see in coming days how resolute and strong Ya'alon is.  Ya'alon had been Minister of Security Affairs. That ministry has been cut and I would assume security affairs will be subsumed within the Defense Ministry.

Ze'ev Elkin (Likud), one of the good guys, is being replaced as Coalition Head by Yariv Levin, and it is not altogether clear as I write what role Elkin will play.  Elkins co-chaired a Knesset Caucus on the Greater Land of Israel, and I'm waiting to see where he goes with that.

Yuval Steinitz (Likud), who was Finance Minister (and a good one), is being replaced by Lapid, and will be Energy and Water Minister.

Gideon Sa'ar (Likud), who is being replaced by Piron as Education Minister, will be Minister of Interior.

Yuli Edelstein (Likud), another of the good guys, is going to be Knesset Speaker, replacing Ruby Rivlin.  Edelstein was Minister of Public Diplomacy and Diaspora Affairs.  That ministry has been cut, and it is not clear which ministry will pick up this work.

~~~~~~~~~~

You can see a full line-up here, but keep in mind that there may still be some adjustments, and that this was drafted before Bennett and Lapid were told they would not be Deputy Prime Ministers.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/guess-whos-coming-to-the-cabinet-table/

~~~~~~~~~~

It will, undoubtedly, be necessary to return to the political issues.

But our focus now very badly needs to be on the presidential visit and a host of problems of huge proportions that we must contend with. 

Whatever my comments about Netanyahu being the loser in an internal political struggle, the fact remains is that he is our prime minister and will be facing down Obama in just days. 

In this, I will voice support and prayers for his strength. May he keep his eye on the principles that matter for all of us here in Israel.  And may our people come together in order to contend with major problems.

~~~~~~~~~~
 
© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/3/16/march-16-2013-lets-move-on.html

Actually, outrage upon outrage upon outrage.  What a day.

Let's start with the coalition formation and Lapid.  With all of the concessions Netanyahu had made for him, it was not enough.  Lapid wanted Rabbi Shai Piron, second on the Yesh Atid list, to be Minister of Education and Netanyahu wanted Gideon Sa'ar to retain that position. 

There were several issues at stake, beyond the matter of which party controlled that important ministry:

Netanyahu was concerned that the yeshivas, which are under the umbrella of the ministry, would not get a fair shake from Yesh Atid; to that end, Bennett, whose party, it seems likely, will control Ministry of Religious Affairs, petitioned for the yeshiva budgets to be moved to its jurisdiction.

Meanwhile, Lapid was going on about how the future of the country depended on control of the Ministry of Education.  He's not wrong, and that's just what I'm worried about. What future for the country does this arrogant man have in mind?

Oh, and we should not forget that he had promised Rabbi Piron that, if he joined the Yesh Atid list, he would be Minister of Education. Excuse me?  How did he make such a promise?

And so, yes, I found the situation outrageous in several particulars.  

The high drama went on over the course of the day. 

 
Credit: telegraph (uk)

Needless to say, the prime minister was greatly irked.  "Take what you have or leave it!"  he reportedly said to Lapid at one point.  Calling him "inflexible," he warned, "You're not getting the Ministry of Education." 

Reports went out about Netanyahu beginning negotiations with Shas, assuming that Lapid might well be out of the coalition.

Bennett did shuttle diplomacy, trying to bridge the differences and counseling compromise.  But from a Habayit Hayehudi source came the quote:

"All hell is breaking loose.  Lapid thinks Bibi will fold, but Bibi won't.  It's a game of chicken gone wrong."

~~~~~~~~~~

But guess what?  Bibi DID fold. And as far as I am concerned, that too is outrageous.  It seems to be his MO.  Perhaps Shas was holding him up for too much, imagining the coalition would depend on them.  Perhaps Netanyahu was beside himself because he had no government, time was almost up, and Obama was coming.  Perhaps there are compromises in other areas that are not yet clear.

Perhaps.  Perhaps. But dearly do I wish the prime minister had not caved before Lapid.  I don't like what I see coming down the road with him.

What seems to be the case is that there will be 68 mandates in the coalition, with Mofaz not included.  All agreements are not finalized yet, and so at this point there is little more to report.  A government will be announced soon enough and particulars will become clear.

~~~~~~~~~~

One of the things we apparently do know now is that MK Uri Ariel (Habayit Hayehudi) will be Minister of Housing, which is most welcome information. (There indeed will be some things to celebrate in the new coalition.)

Credit: Flash 90

But here's the outrage: Robert Serry, a UN envoy, and really bad news, publicly made a statement about how regrettable this was, for it would mean more housing in Judea and Samaria and cause Israel international condemnation.

Someone asked his opinion?  Would he do this with any other sovereign nation?  MK Ariel's assumption is that Serry made this statement before ministry assignments were announced in hopes of reversing the situation.

~~~~~~~~~~

And this is even more outrageous, by far:

Obama, during his visit here, will be addressing students in the International Convention Center (Binyanei Ha'uma) in Jerusalem.  Students from every university in Israel were invited, except from Ariel University.

Why?  Clearly because Ariel, a very fine university and fully accredited, is -- shock and horrors! -- over the Green Line.

MK Yoni Chetboun (Habayit Hayehudi) met with students from the university, who expressed their anger, and then wrote a letter of protest to US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro.

If the Embassy action on behalf of the president is not reversed, Ariel students intend to go into Jerusalem and protest outside during Obama's talk.

~~~~~~~~~~

Tzipi Livni, who has been pegged by Netanyahu to do negotiations with the PA, spoke yesterday at the Herzliya Conference.  She said:

It is "critical for us to reach a final status agreement" [with the Palestinian Arabs]...

"In the negotiation room we need to stop talking about who has the greater right to be here."

And this, my friends, is probably the greatest outrage of all.

~~~~~~~~~~

Tomorrow is another day.

~~~~~~~~~~
 
© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/3/13/march-13-2013-outrage.html

I was going to send this posting out yesterday.  It was substantially written. But, I saw that there had been progress in the negotiations on the coalition -- it was looking more rational, more hopeful.  That is, according to credible rumors.  And so I thought if I held off a bit I might be able to announce a government. Silly me.
 
From rumors of "very close" we suddenly moved to an announcement of a breakdown in the negotiations.  At this point I am pointing my finger at Lapid.  Likud is accusing him of reneging on an agreement that had been reached, and Bennett is saying that what Lapid is now demanding with regard to draft regulations would hurt nationalist yeshivas and is unacceptable to him (i.e., Bennett). There have been round the clock negotiations aimed at coming to a final agreement, but as I write, still no resolution. More talks are scheduled for tonight.
 
I had pegged Lapid from early on as someone too sure of himself, too arrogant -- exhibiting neither a willingness to compromise (which is what politics is often about), or to understand that changes don't happen all at once. He's about "fixing" everything immediately (as he perceives the need to do fixing) because he got 19 mandates.
 
It is likely that a coalition will come together in short order.  Netanyahu has only until this Shabbat and he's out of time. What we must wonder, however, is how long a coalition that has such tensions built into it can remain stable.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
What I will mention here is that the names being floated for various ministries have me more hopeful than I had expected to be at this point.  All specifics will follow when the assignments are announced.  It's being said that Lapid wants to be Finance Minister.  That would be regrettable, for as far as I can discern, he knows zilch about financial management; Yuval Steinitz (Likud) has done a fine job in that department and really would like to retain the post.  And there's talk about dissension over the education ministry, which Gideon Sa'ar (Likud) has managed exceedingly well.
 
The issues of the Finance and Education Ministries are two instances of a problem that has arisen:  As members of other factions are being considered for a number of major posts, members of Likud are disgruntled and feeling left out, ironically even as theirs is the ruling faction.  The problem of ministry assignment is exacerbated by the fact that part of the coalition negotiations involves reducing the number of portfolios.
 
To add to the problem, some of the younger members on the Likud list, serious vote-getters (I have in mind Tzipi Hotovely, pictured), are being passed over by Netanyahu for old guard cronies.  This is not sitting well with those whom the prime minister would ignore. 

Credit: Israelnationalnews
 
What a business this is!
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
As the clock on the coalition negotiations ticks away, Netanyahu surely has the coming visit of Obama in mind.  Meanwhile, the president is making his own preparations for coming.  Significant among those preparations is an off-the-record meeting he had with close to 24 American Jewish leaders last Thursday, during which he assured them that he wouldn't be bringing a peace plan with him. 
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
According to reports from participants of that meeting, when asked what actions he will take to stop Iran, Obama said:
 
"I’m not going to beat my chest to prove my toughness on this."
 
A snide and decidedly non-reassuring comment.
 
He then provided a quote, frequently attributed to a Chinese military tactician, regarding the need to give "a golden bridge" to a "proud people" in order to provide them with a face-saving way to retreat to a diplomatic solution.
 
So...Obama's still being Obama, still clinging to his fantasies.  His refusal to beat his chest, figuratively, comports with his routine refusal to be tough, insisting that enemies can be won over better with kindness. 
Why he imagines that the Iranian leaders are looking for a face-saving way to retreat to diplomacy is beyond me, and what I worry about is what "golden bridge" he hopes to offer them.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
About the same time that Obama was talking about giving the Iranians a chance to step down to negotiations, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was declaring that Western nations had only acknowledged a "fraction" of Iran's nuclear rights. "Western nations did not accomplish anything that can be construed as a concession" -- which, of course, he insists Iran is entitled to.
 
http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2013/mar/07/khamenei-tweets-iran-needs-more-concessions
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Barry Rubin has just written about Obama's foreign policy approach, hardly for the first time (emphasis added):
 
"On the eve of President Obama’s first visit to Israel as chief executive, I have just returned from briefing a high-ranking official of country x about the Middle East. We kept coming back to a vital theme: the incredibly shrinking power of the United States. Try to explain American behavior to neutral, open-minded third parties for whom U.S. policy activities have become just plain bizarre!
 
"...there’s been for all practical purposes a profound–albeit possibly temporary–transformation in the governance of the United States. Regarding foreign policy, all the old rules don’t apply—credibility; punishing enemies and rewarding friends..."
 
http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/03/why-as-president-obama-is-a-disaster-and-why-as-a-country-israel-should-applaud-obama/
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
The Palestinian Arabs in PA areas are also preparing for the Obama visit to the region.  Activists associated with a group called "Palestinians for Dignity" are calling for "huge demonstrations" because Obama's policies are "supportive of the occupation."  They said he was "persona non grata in Palestine" because of US support for Israel.  And they are calling for "demonstrations against the idea of returning to the negotiations."
 
Will Obama also offer them a "golden bridge"?
 
~~~~~~~~~~
For his part, Hamas leader in Gaza Ismail Haniyeh has declared Obama's visit a "trap" and calls upon Abbas not to fall into it:

"We are convinced that Obama’s visit will not produce the necessary breakthrough for our people."

Obama’s visit "will focus on regional developments and will only address our cause in a way to undermine Palestinian national reconciliation efforts and to relaunch the absurd so-called negotiations."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/166045

~~~~~~~~~~

Haniyeh's assessment of Obama's intentions is, of course, on the mark. What's noteworthy here is that this statement by a Palestinian Arab leader with whom Abbas is supposed to be negotiating "unity" makes it harder for Abbas to accept Obama positively.  He will be labeled a traitor, one who sacrifices the good of the people in order to please the American president.

In other words, radical is "in."

~~~~~~~~~~

On Friday, the Muslim Sabbath, following afternoon prayers at the mosques on the Temple Mount, worshippers began throwing rocks at the Israeli officers stationed at the Mughrabi Bridge -- this is the bridge that runs between the Western Wall Plaza and the Mughrabi Gate, the only gate available for non-Muslims to enter the Mount. 
 
When Israeli police entered the Mount, rioters not only threw rocks at them, but also two fire bombs.   Six of the police required hospitalization for treatment.
 
Police -- calling the situation a "new escalation" -- used stun grenades and tear gas to disperse the crowd. 
 
Situations such as these are not only enraging but remind us how badly we have lost sovereignty over what is rightfully ours.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
The situation in Syria, right at our border, is escalating.  IDF soldiers can hear guns firing, and see the battles. 
 
Last Wednesday, 21 Philippine peacekeepers were kidnapped by the Martyrs of Yarmouk rebel forces in an attempt to force Assad forces to withdraw from the Jamla area.  The peacekeepers were part of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) that has been monitoring a ceasefire line between Syria and Israel in the Golan Heights since 1974.  They have now been released to Jordan, but there is talk of the UN force withdrawing.
 
Now rebels operating near the Golan border have vowed to "liberate" the Golan from Israel after Assad has been taken down.  Assad, they have declared, is severely remiss for not having done this a long time ago.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
According to Ayal Zisser, former director of the Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies:
 
"A significant number of the rebels in the Golan Heights area belong to the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, but alongside that group are a whole host of other armed militias. These groups lack a central leadership and are mainly composed of outlaws and bandits out for a fight. These gangs seek control of the rural regions and the Syrian periphery."
 
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=3635
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
There is a reasonable anticipation not simply of trouble on the Golan border with Syrian rebels, but with Hezbollah, which is surely acquiring advanced weapons from Syria in the midst of the current turmoil.
 
What I repeat here has been said before, and I consider it of the utmost importance in terms of Israeli policy.  Last week a senior IDF officer, who declined to be identified, said:
 
We want to preserve the quiet, and we want the other side to know that if they take a step that necessitates we exact a price, they will pay dearly.
 
"The way they behave will have repercussions on the population and infrastructure of southern Lebanon.
 
I don't in any way expect the casualty ratio to be similar. I want things to be as bad as possible for the other side and as good as possible for us."
 
The officer said Israel would try to give Lebanese non-combatants time to evacuate, but recognized that there would be non-combatant casualties.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
This is all about the despicable, the immoral, habit -- engaged in by Hezbollah and Hamas equally -- of deliberately storing weaponry and establishing rocket launching sites in civilian areas, assuming that Israel will be afraid to hit those areas.  But the more Hezbollah has sophisticated weaponry that can do serious damage to the Israeli population, the more important it becomes for the Israeli military to take out that weaponry before many Israelis can be killed.  Intentions are to act very fast indeed.
 
The moral responsibility for this situation falls on Hezbollah shoulders.  Israel responsibility is to the lives of Israeli citizens.  Bad press cannot be a factor here.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
We know full well how quickly the world points a finger at Israel. 
 
During Operation Pillar of Defense in November, two of the Palestinian Arab dead were the baby son of a BBC Arabic Service journalist and his 19-year-old sister-in-law.
 
A Times of Israel reports,
 
"Images of the bereaved father tearfully holding the corpse of his 11-month-old baby went around the world." 
 
And Human Rights Watch declared that according to "news reports and witnesses," Israel was responsible.
 
Well, guess what?  A UN report now says that it was a Palestinian Arab rocket that killed the child and the woman.  The UN. 
 
http://www.timesofisrael.com/un-clears-israel-from-charge-it-bombed-11-month-old-baby/
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 
 
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/3/11/march-11-2013-not-quite.html

Mostly a bit of news and a variety of materials that are worthy of being shared.

Let me begin with a brief update on the little boy I've been tracking -- Zakkai.  He's making good progress in his recovery and is becoming more like himself.  But all is not smooth: he's clingy, which is understandable considering the trauma he's had; wants to be carried on stairs, which he finds difficult to navigate; and still has some discomfort.  Since his balance isn't good and he has other problems connected to the surgery on his spine, he has rehabilitation specialists working with him to help him regain his former mobility.

Please God, a matter of time.  The family prays for a return to normalcy.

~~~~~~~~~~

The Center for Near East Policy Research, which has produced a variety of materials on UNRWA over the years, has just put out a new video on the "Right of Return" as taught in the UNRWA schools. 

See this and understand why UNRWA is part of the problem, and why peace is not possible while the Palestinian Arab kids in its classrooms continue to be taught to kill Jews in order to regain "their" land.  This is stunning documentation -- you get it from the mouths of students, teachers and administrators themselves (with subtitles).  What the kids say is most stunning of all:

http://israelbehindthenews.com/bin/content.cgi?ID=5381&q=1

This is one of those things that everyone should know about.  UNRWA would have people believe that it is a "humanitarian" organization benignly serving a population disenfranchised by Israel.

Please spread this around broadly.

~~~~~~~~~~

Lawrence Korb, who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense during the Jonathan Pollard affair, was here this week.  You can find here (scroll down a bit) a video clip from his news conference on Tuesday, making the case for Jonathan's release.  He provides important background information:

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/165918#.UThAAzd5dae

~~~~~~~~~~

Unreal. Incredible. But no surprise in this unreal and incredible world.  John Brennan, who by all accounts makes Chuck Hagel look good, has been confirmed by the Senate as the next CIA head.

What is there to say that hasn't already been said?

~~~~~~~~~~

Barry Rubin, whom I cite often because of his sharp analyses, gave me a laugh today. And when I can laugh about Secretary of State Kerry, I think it's worth sharing:

Said Rubin:

"In practically his first outing as secretary of state abroad, John Kerry made some remarkable statements in a meeting with young Germans. The main thing being widely quoted is this:

"'In America, you have a right to be stupid if you want to be,' he said. 'And we tolerate it. We somehow make it through that. Now, I think that’s a virtue. I think that’s something worth fighting for.”'

"Of course, there’s a right to be stupid in America! Indeed, just this week it’s been expanded into having a right to be simultaneously stupid and secretary of defense!"

http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/02/what-john-kerry-doesnt-know-about-democracy-and-also-about-islam/

Rubin also quoted Kerry saying something else so incredibly insensitive and impolitic that I did a double-take:

"You know, education, if you make the most of it, if you study hard and you do your homework, and you make an effort to be smart, uh, you, you can do well. If you don’t, you get stuck in Iraq."

For those of us who might doubt that even Kerry would really say anything quite so obtuse, we are provided with a video clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPYVdV6WzwM

America is in a heap of trouble.

~~~~~~~~~~

It was announced yesterday that Obama has decided to skip a planned speech in the Knesset when he's here, opting for a more "politically neutral" venue instead.  Apparently he's afraid of being interrupted by right wing MKs. 

MKs Avi Wurtzman (Habayit Hayehudi) and Tzipi Hotovely (Likud-Beiteinu) have written to the president urging him to reconsider.

US "sources" are saying that rumors that the president will be demanding a timetable for withdrawals from Netanyahu are not true -- that he intends to present a "general framework" for peace and no more.  Do not ask me what a "general framework" means, or how it differs from the 100 previous frameworks that failed.

~~~~~~~~~~

Who knows, by the time I next write, there may be a coalition. There was no way Netanyahu was going to miss that March 16 deadline set by Obama, upon which his coming would depend.

For a while now it's been a question of who blinks first and according to latest rumors, it's Yair Lapid who has, surrendering his demand for the Foreign Ministry (which is being saved for Lieberman). Apparently agreement is now close.

There's a great deal yet to discover.

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/3/7/march-7-2012-sharing.html

Nothing concrete to report yet on the coalition, as, again, there are mostly rumors.  Based on what I'm reading, however, I confess to a great unease that Lapid sees himself as a reformer upon whom formation of the coalition depends -- and who thus can, with his demands for entry into that coalition, instantaneously restructure much of Israeli society.  Whether he's right or wrong on specific issues, I fear a heavy-handed audacity that is only going to tear the society apart. 

Not that the haredi parties are behaving in a manner that is going to bring our society cohesiveness, either.

Reports have it that the formation of the coalition is being held up because Lapid demands the foreign ministry and Netanyahu is saying he promised it to Avigdor Lieberman and intends to keep that promise.

~~~~~~~~~~

I hope they were listening:

General James Mattis, head of US Central Command and the top US commander in the Middle East, in a briefing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that the current regime of sanctions and diplomatic relations is not working to stop Iran, which is enriching uranium beyond any plausible peaceful purpose.

“I think we have to continue sanctions, but have other options ready,” he explained, saying that these other options don't necessarily entail open conflict, but a military operation is "one of the options that I have to have prepared for the president."

~~~~~~~~~~

That's all well and good, except for the fact that the new US secretary of state has just undercut the option of a military operation with his recent remarks.  At an ABC News interview in Doha, Qatar, John Kerry said:
"I’m not going to get into red lines and timing publicly except to reiterate what the president has said again and again, which is he prefers to have a diplomatic solution.

"He would like to see the P5+1 process, the negotiation process, be able to work, and avoid any consideration of any military action."

http://www.jta.org/news/article/2013/03/05/3121231/kerry-obama-would-prefer-to-avoid-considering-iran-strike

Excuse me, but the head of the US Central Command said this wasn't working and yet Obama would prefer to continue with the "P5+1 process"?

If you were running Iran, would you be afraid that Obama might order a military hit?

Rhetorical question.

But the fact that Iran's leaders are not afraid of this severely weakens the potential impact of the sanctions and diplomacy.  It's not -- agree or else.  It's more like -- golly gee, I really want this to work.

Kerry's refusal "to get into red lines and timing publicly" is quite deliberate. But the whole point, which he chooses to evade, is for the Iranians to be informed quite openly that there's a line beyond which their behavior will not be tolerated.

~~~~~~~~~~

I feel positively schizoid as I write this, for Netanyahu's internal political conduct has been making me crazy, and yet I must continue to recognize him as the most forthright of all national leaders on the issue of Iran.  Forthright in words, at any rate -- in how he paints the situation; how he will act, remains to be seen.

Netanyahu was supposed to attend the recent AIPAC Conference in Washington, but could not because the coalition is not yet formed. And so, two days ago, he addressed the Conference by audiovisual hook-up.  With regard to Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons -- which he maintains will be the first topic of his conversation with President Obama -- he said this (emphasis added):

"...Iran has made it clear that it will continue to defy the will of the international community. Time after time, the world powers have tabled diplomatic proposals to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue peacefully. But diplomacy has not worked. Iran ignores these offers. It is running out the clock. It has used negotiations to buy time to press ahead with its nuclear program.

"...The sanctions have hit the Iranian economy hard. But Iran’s leaders grit their teeth and move forward. Iran enriches more and more uranium.  It installs faster and faster centrifuges Iran has still not crossed the red line I drew at the United Nations last September.  But they are getting closer and closer to that line.

"And they are putting themselves in a position to cross that line very quickly once they decide to do so.

"Ladies and Gentlemen, To prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, we cannot allow Iran to cross that line. We must stop its nuclear enrichment program before it will be too late.  Words alone will not stop Iran.  Sanctions alone will not stop Iran.  Sanctions must be coupled with a clear and credible military threat if diplomacy and sanctions fail. I deeply appreciate something that President Obama has said repeatedly. And you’ve just heard Vice President Biden say it again. Israel must always be able to defend itself by itself against any threat to its existence. The Jewish people know the cost of being defenseless against those who would exterminate us. We will never let that happen again...We have our place under the sun. And ladies and gentlemen, we shall defend it."

http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/03/04/full-text-of-netanyahu-speech-to-aipac-2013/

~~~~~~~~~~

An AIPAC panel discussion on the Iranian issue highlighted the serious divisions between Israel and the US on the matter of stopping Iran, divisions often masked by feel-good rhetoric about how both countries want the same thing. 

Amos Yadlin, former head of IDF Military Intelligence, said it clearly (emphasis added):

“We all share the same data, the same intelligence. We are also on the same page on the strategic goal to prevent Iran from being nuclear. But between the floor and the ceiling of the problem, there are doors and windows where we’re not in the same place. We should be much closer on how to prevent Iran to go nuclear.

“The time is running out in 2013. The difference between the United States and Israel on the question could be summed up by 'three ‘T’s': a different trauma, a different trigger (this would be the red line), and maybe not enough trust.

“We, the Israelis, come [to the issue] with the Holocaust. We are six million Israeli Jews listening to Ahmadinejad calling for Israel’s destruction. You come with a different trauma, Iraq. You don’t want another war, understandably.

"But this is not a war, this is a one-night operation, and we should speak about it." 

http://www.timesofisrael.com/aipac-panel-hints-at-deep-us-israel-divide-on-iran/

~~~~~~~~~~ 

One last, important, word on AIPAC.  Please read what Daniel Pipes has to say in "When AIPAC went AWOL":

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=3613

~~~~~~~~~~

Yuck! Locusts, some millions that constitute part of the huge swarm that first hit Egypt, have arrived in the Negev. This is the worst infestation in Israel in perhaps 50 years. 

Credit: forumgarden

The Ministry of Agriculture made preparations for their arrival, with aerial and land spraying done to minimize the damage to crops. 

~~~~~~~~~~

To demonstrate that not everything is worrisome, I'd like to backtrack just a bit and end with something good that happened last Friday: The International Jerusalem Marathon.

Credit: Jerusalem-marathon.com

The city was shut down, with roads closed to traffic, but the event was one that garnered good will for the city and excellent PR.  There were multiple running courses of different lengths -- from professional to amateur -- that were designed to take participants through various historical layers of the city. 

Some 20,000 participants joined the run, including people from 52 different countries.  The race was won by won by Abraham Kabeto Ketla of Ethiopia, who set a new time. 

Credit: Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

In the women's division, the winner was Mihiret Anamo Anotonios, also of Ethiopia.

~~~~~~~~~~

Of course, an international event that tracked Jerusalem's Jewish history, and brought considerable good will for the united city's Jewish administration, did not sit well with the PA.  The Arabs attempted -- with precious little success -- to get people to withdraw from the marathon and -- with absolutely no success --warned the municipality not to allow participants to run in eastern "occupied" Jerusalem, and definitely not near the Temple Mount, which, they said, belongs only to them.

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/3/6/march-6-2012-worrisome.html

There is a lot of hard work to do, a lot of heavy pulling, to bring our nation to where it needs to be.  I hold on to hope that all will yet be well, but am sorely disheartened.

Yesterday, I quoted Naftali Bennett, head of Habayit Hayehudi, thus:

"for days after the election the Likud refused to speak to the Jewish Home. They boycotted us… we expected to be a natural partner and to be the first to enter the Netanyahu government."  The message he claims he got was, "the religious Zionist party won’t enter the coalition, at any price."  

What Netanyahu did was foolish, I said. Rude.  Conveying to the newcomer Bennett a sense of being excluded.  But, I asked, now that Netanyahu had contacted Bennett was the prime minister's original rudeness sufficient reason for Bennett to have fashioned his current policy as he has? 

Today, I have a likely answer, from someone very close to Habayit Hayehudi.  Bennett, I was told, understood that once he broke his alliance with Lapid, Netanyahu would take in Lapid, and leave him out.

Oh.

Bennett's impression that Netanyahu was determined that the religious Zionist party would never enter the coalition was not just a response to a snub early on; Bennett apparently recognized this behavior as a reflection of a deeper Netanyahu intention.

~~~~~~~~~~

Today I also heard another story about Netanyahu's intentions. This is the second time I have heard it.  At first I discounted it as hearsay.  Now, although I cannot confirm with absolute certainty that the charge is accurate, I no longer can discount it.

Someone inside of Yesh Atid maintains that Netanyahu told Lapid that if he breaks with Bennett and comes in by himself, it will be easier to take down settlements.

Uh huh.

The endorsement of the Tekuma rabbis makes a whole lot of sense now.

~~~~~~~~~~

And still I am not done.  The AIPAC convention has been going on in Washington, and lame duck Defense Minister Ehud Barak addressed the thousands gathered there.

A "full fledged peace deal with the Palestinians" was not possible now, Barak said.

Good that he says this upfront, I thought.

Then he said that an interim agreement should be attempted to protect Israel's security.

I was no longer sure this was good, depending on what he was referring to.

~~~~~~~~~~

And then...he said that if this couldn't be achieved, it might be necessary for Israel to take unilateral steps to prevent a bi-national state: Israel may need to "consider unilateral steps that would include demarcating a line within which Israel would keep the settlement blocs and ensure a Jewish majority for generations to come." Israel would establish a "long term security presence on the Jordan River." (Emphasis added)

Say what???  UNILATERAL steps??  We did that once already, when we pulled out of Gaza.  We saw what that brought us.  What he's suggesting here is that without an end of conflict agreement with the Palestinian Arabs, without a mutually agreed upon border, Israel should pull back from some parts of Judea and Samaria and fully turn over land to them. 

A very very bad idea.  I can only touch here upon all of the reasons why it's a terrible idea.

Note first that he refers to settlement blocs, so be certain that there are many Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria that would be demolished under such a plan.  Many Jews who would be torn from their homes.

We would be relinquishing rights to the land -- something we should not do.

~~~~~~~~~~

But beyond this, we would be diminishing Israel's security.  A border is only an internationally recognized border if parties on both sides agree.  Israel "demarcating a line" would not be recognized internationally and would certainly not be recognized by the PA, which would demand we keep pulling back until we were behind the '67 armistice line. 

Once we pulled back, we would be UNILATERALLY relinquishing the practice by the IDF of doing  operations to take out terrorists and training centers, and weapons caches and weapons manufacturing sites in Palestinian Arab areas.  The fact, my friends, is that the IDF does these operations nightly.  It's what has kept things quiet, because the PA security forces will not do this.  (I'll come back to this in more detail in a future posting.)  Without an IDF presence in these areas, security and intelligence and military officials agree, there is a great likelihood that Hamas would take over.  Abbas is very weak.  And so then we would have Hamas on our eastern border as well as at our southwest in Gaza.  

Great idea!

Please note that Barak refers to a security presence in the Jordan Valley (to prevent smuggling of weapons and entry of foreign forces).  But he says "long term," not permanent. But how long is "long term," and what happens after that?

With all of this I still haven't mentioned the question of what would happen to certain high places in Samaria if there were a pullback.  All Barak spoke about was retaining settlement blocs, not retaining land for security purposes and strategic depth. If Arabs had control of those high places they could even hit the airport. 

~~~~~~~~~~

No done deal here. Just an idea floated -- perhaps even a trial balloon.  We must respond and be vigilant to the greatest degree possible.

I assure you, Barak did not speak without Netanyahu's go-ahead.

I provide here the e-mails of key members of Likud-Beitenu.  Please!  write to them. Tell them that you know about Defense Minister Barak's outrageous suggestion at AIPAC that unilateral withdrawal from parts of Judea and Samaria might have to be considered. 

Provide a couple of lines on why this is a terrible idea.  Say that Barak is lame-duck, on his way out, and had no business speaking for Israel in an international forum at this point.  And urgently request that they do everything within their power to assure that there are no withdrawals:

Danny Danon: ddanon@knesset.gov.il            Moshe Ya'alon: myaalon@knesset.gov.il
Tzipi Hotovely: zhotovely@knesset.gov.il        Ze'ev Elkin: zelkin@knesset.gov.il
Yuli Edelstein: yedelstein@knesset.gov.il        Ruby Rivlin: rrivlin@knesset.gov.il
Moshe Feiglin: mfeiglin@knesset.gov.il            Gideon Sa'ar: gsaar@knesset.gov.il
Ofir Akunis: oakunis@knesset.gov.il                Uzi Landau: ulandau@knesset.gov.il
Yisrael Katz: yiskatz@knesset.gov.il                Yariv Levin: ylevin@knesset.gov.il
Yair Shamir: yshamir@knesset.gov.il                Avigdor Lieberman: aliberman@knesset.gov.il

Click on each address; write one message and copy and paste to each, with an individual salutation added.

The new government must not be a one-man show. The actions of key members of the Knesset will be critical in helping to keep the prime minister accountable and honest in his political dealings.  Members of the ruling faction must be roused to take a responsible role here.

Please, share this broadly.

~~~~~~~~~~

One other significant point must be made here, before I move on:

Barak referred to taking this action in order to "ensure a Jewish majority for generations to come."  Well, it is a crock that if we retain all of the land to the Jordan River we will become a minority, swallowed up by an Arab majority. This is a scare tactic, used as a reason to give up land.

See here with regard to Jewish and Arab birthrates and their implication for Israel:

http://www.theettingerreport.com/Demographic-Scare/Jewish-Arab-Demography-Defies-Conventional--Wisdom.aspx

And here, information about misrepresentations in the PA census, which leads people to believe there are more Arabs in Judea and Samaria than there are:

http://www.theettingerreport.com/Demographic-Scare/The-Two-State-Religion.aspx

~~~~~~~~~~

The other concern I have had in these last few days has to do with sinat hinam.  Causeless hatred, which, we are taught, is what brought about the destruction of the Second Temple.  If we do not love our fellow Jews, do not unite for common causes, then we cannot be strong.

I have been vastly uncomfortable with the notion that the haredi parties, which are fighting for the status quo in yeshiva exemptions, should be excluded from the coalition.  That exclusion will not bring compromise or peaceful settlement, but bitterness.

And sure enough, I've seen some very bitter comments from haredi leaders who have said, You don't want us?  Wait until we're in the government again, and see what we'll do to you.  I have even seen threats to vote against retention of settlements.  A bad way to go.

~~~~~~~~~~

Only late today did I see a comment by Lapid that offered a glimmer of hope regarding the possibility of moving past this unfortunate situation.  At a faction meeting today, he said that Yesh Atid wants to represent everyone’s interests, including the ultra-Orthodox.

“I hope to establish a good, broad government that’s good for the people, and not for the politicians. And even the ultra-Orthodox will find that Yesh Atid is not only not against them, but takes care of them too.”

A bit audacious for my taste.  HE hopes to establish a government?  And he thinks he can represent everyone's interests?  Not sure about that.  But the tone is certainly conciliatory.  He's saying he cares about the ultra-Orthodox as well.  Now we have to see how he demonstrates this.

~~~~~~~~~~

Bennett's statement seems more modest, more in keeping with the tone that might be expected of a newcomer:

"We rolled up our sleeves and are working very hard to help Netanyahu form a government that serves the people."

~~~~~~~~~~

In any event, both Lapid and Bennett are saying that while meetings are going well, it is not time to close on coalition agreements yet.

May it come for good things in the end.

~~~~~~~~~~

In closing, a correction:  I got fooled. The story about Mick Jagger doing concerts here in Israel in spite of pressure on him not to was a Purim gag coming out of France. Got it from a good source, so I guess a whole lot of people were fooled.  My thanks to David Orbach, who alerted me.

~~~~~~~~~~
 
© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/3/4/march-4-2013-a-heavy-struggle.html

Now I'm referring not to the state of the world, but to the state of Israeli politics.  I am so often proud of who we are. But now?  I would gladly grab hold of certain political shoulders and shake until the heads that sit on those respective shoulders rattled.  Where? I want to ask. Where is your devotion to the state and the greater good during these difficult times?

To whose shoulders am I alluding? There is, in my opinion, enough blame to go around.  No one that I'm seeing stands up as a leader (or even a potential leader), resolute in his vision, embracing his fellow Jews, and focused on the nation and not his own political future or that of his particular party.

Do I know what's in people's heads?  Not with any clarity.  Which makes posting difficult.

~~~~~~~~~~ 

On Friday, the coalition negotiations between Likud Beitenu and Habayit Hayehudi broke down.  These are the two parties that should have been natural allies, logical coalition partners. 

Prime Minister Netanyahu has secured from President Peres another 14 days in which to form a coalition.   President Obama has said if a government is not formed by the 16th of this month, then he will cancel his trip, scheduled for the week after. 

Today the prime minister met with Shas. There had been reports that he absolutely refuses to exclude them because of Bennett-Lapid demands.  And there have been other, more recent, reports that he told Shas he wants to include them, but that because of Bennett and Lapid, it will be difficult to do so.

Following this meeting, Netanyahu had a long meeting with Bennett, which is being described by members of Habayit Hayehudi as "positive and productive." There was discussion of the party joining the coalition, although there is at yet no announcement.

~~~~~~~~~~

I am reluctant to repeat rumors or level charges that are no more than hearsay, and yet I feel I must at this point give my readers some window into what is going on here.

By way of a re-cap:

Fault lies first with Netanyahu who ran a regrettable campaign.  The lack of vigor with which he and his party campaigned resulted in fewer mandates for Likud-Beitenu than had been expected and plenty of anger within Likud circles.

What is more, Likud ran a very negative campaign, with the negativity leveled first and foremost against Habayit Hayehudi.  This was stupid and counterproductive.  There are rumors, which apparently do have some basis in fact, regarding bad blood between Netanyahu and Bennett, head of Habayit Hayehudi, who once worked for Netanyahu. 

However, what has been the case, as well, is that Bennett's posture as an up-and-coming leader in the nationalist camp threatened Netanyahu -- who has exposed his insecurities.  Compared with the previous strength of the "old" Habayit Hayehudi (aka the National Religious Party), this new incarnation with Bennett at its head was demonstrating great promise in the polls and it was looking as if Likud was at risk of losing voters to Habayit Hayehudi. 

Thus apparently did Netanyahu level criticism against Bennett.  His hope, surely, was that disenchanted potential Habayit Hayehudi voters would turn to Likud.  What I see is that, seeking a new young face, they instead moved over to Lapid and Yesh Atid.  Netanyahu bears some responsibility for the 19 mandates Lapid garnered.

~~~~~~~~~~

Since the coalition negotiations began 28 days ago, there are only two discernable facts we can point to:

First, Netanyahu brought Tzipi Livni on board and gave her an incredible amount of power -- Justice Ministry and responsibility for negotiating with the PA -- for her six mandates.  A very foolish move that I have already described as a betrayal of the principles of many inside the Likud-Beitenu faction and of those who voted Likud-Beitenu.

And then, the partnership, the "mini-coalition" of Bennett (on the right in the picture) and Lapid. At first this was no more than suggested by rumor, but the fact of this agreement has become clear in recent days. 

Credit: Zimbio

Bennett says he joined with Lapid only because Netanyahu had treated him badly, not negotiating with his party in good faith and passing over him when others were approached. 

Bennett: "for days after the election the Likud refused to speak to the Jewish Home. They boycotted us… we expected to be a natural partner and to be the first to enter the Netanyahu government."  The message he claims he got was, "the religious Zionist party won’t enter the coalition, at any price."  (Whether this was a literal message or the "feeling" he got, he does not say.)

Likud had denied this, saying that Bennett was approached first. 

But it's now clear that this wasn't so, because Likud negotiator David Shimron said today that, "They are trying to punish us because Bennett’s phone rang after Gal-on’s."  Zahava Gal-on, head of the far left Meretz party.  It made the press when Netanyahu contacted her, as well as others, immediately after the elections.  This was before Bennett had been called.

Foolish of Netanyahu. Rude.  Conveying to the newcomer Bennett a sense of being excluded.  But is this sufficient reason for Bennett to have fashioned his current policy as he has?  Once he was called, would it have been prudent for him to have moved on rather than attempting a power play?

~~~~~~~~~~

The two issues that Bennett and Lapid have raised mutually have been the position of Livni and the matter of legislation that would require haredim who are learning in yeshivas to also serve in the IDF or do national service.  This second issue has been an enormous hot potato, and I have concern that rigid positions on both sides are causing divisions within the country at a time when we can ill-afford this. 

Part of what disturbs me is that I'm hearing that Lapid says he doesn't want to sit in a coalition with the haredi parties. Although we cannot know what's being said in closed rooms or hinted between the lines, this stipulation certainly seems more stringent and stiff-necked than saying he would of course sit with them but wants to see them negotiating a compromise on the issue of haredi service.  A compromise, even if a modest beginning -- a concession that some compromise is necessary.

On the other hand, there are haredi leaders demonstrating no willingness to compromise. They are reported to have said some very disturbing things.  One rabbi allegedly said he would rather sacrifice the settlements than sacrifice Torah.  That got my dander up, big time.  (Translation here: they would sit with Labor.) And then charges against Bennett, who is an observant, kippa-wearing Jew, about his being against Torah.   

~~~~~~~~~~

This business of saving Torah.  Oi v'voi.  When the nation was founded, the Jewish people had just undergone the Holocaust, and the horrendous destruction in eastern Europe of Torah scholars. Ben Gurion, in a desire to strengthen Torah study -- and the population of those studying -- within the new Jewish state, structured a plan by which ultra-Orthodox men studying in yeshivas would be exempt from army service.  That plan has been retained since Ben Gurion's time.  The haredim have come to see this as an entitlement, and have come to believe -- many with great and passionate sincerity -- that the mantle of preserving Torah rests with them.

But back then there were hundreds studying in yeshivas and today -- thank Heaven! -- there are tens of thousands.  More studying than has ever been the case.  The haredim protest that they are serving Israel as much as those who serve in the IDF -- that it is this religious study that guards Israel.  Who can say otherwise? 

But no one is suggesting that the yeshivas be closed.  There are proposals that would defer the age at which these yeshiva students could be drafted.  And proposals that say that the finest of Torah students -- however they would be identified and however many would be included in this category -- would still be exempt, and still be permitted non-stop study.  Part of the problem, of course, is that there are multiple proposals with various proponents arguing for what they have advanced.

It should also be noted that there currently are alternatives within the IDF that permit a combination of study and military service, alternatives that must be expanded and seriously developed.  I have in mind the Hesder Yeshiva programs and the battalion called Nahal Haredi.  There are some haredim who do serve now, and this practice needs to be publicized and encouraged.   

~~~~~~~~~~

There are multiple problems with the current deferment system for yeshiva students.  One is that not every haredi man is automatically a scholar who merits the latitude of being exempt from other duties.  While there are pious and devoted men who spend long hours in their study, there is a certain percentage of the haredi population that simply takes advantage of that exemption.

Another is the sense within the larger population (and to a considerable extent this is what Lapid represents) that the burden of serving must be equalized.  The haredi population must give, in service to the State.

And even beyond the issue of military service, there is the question of their subsequently joining the ranks of the employed and thus contributing to the economic wellbeing of the nation -- and, in the process, becoming less isolated and more firmly part of the social fabric of the nation. 

~~~~~~~~~~

It is my own conviction that changes are necessary, but that they have to be made slowly and with awareness of the sensibilities of the haredi community, so as to avoid tearing this nation apart.  It is my impression that the IDF is not prepared to accept all of them immediately in any event, if ever.

~~~~~~~~~~

And there is yet one other part of the equation here that must be addressed, and that is Yair Lapid and his manner of conducting himself.  His 19-mandate victory went to his head and he has made some unfortunate  statements:  Failing to project the humility and the desire to garner experience that we might hope for from someone new at politics, he has presented himself as someone who can come in and change matters forthwith.  This is unsettling and suggests the possibility of rash judgment.

~~~~~~~~~~

There has been a good deal of criticism of Bennett, and talk about what is in his head, that he has held fast to this agreement with Lapid, with whom he hardly agrees on all particulars.  Of late, Netanyahu has been working to break apart that mini-coalition, bringing Bennett in, and leaving Lapid out.

What makes it somewhat less likely that Netanyahu can succeed is this:

Four key rabbis of the Tekuma faction of Habayit Hayehudi have now come out supporting Bennett's agreement with Lapid.  Tekuma, please understand, came from National Union, which is to the right politically; Uri Ariel, Bennett's second on the list and the one who has been doing negotiating for the party, is from Tekuma.

Rabbis Dov Lior (a big name), Haim Steiner, Isser Klonsky and Haim David Halevi have released a letter that they sent to Bennett and Ariel:

“In the light of updates we have received from MKs and members of Jewish Home, and taking into account the media stories on the matter, we wish to 'strengthen the hands' of the path Jewish Home has chosen, as it works to preserve the world of Torah and the communities of the Land of Israel. We support the cooperation with Yesh Atid and with Yair Lapid." 

Interesting..."to preserve the world of Torah and the communities of the Land of Israel."

~~~~~~~~~~

Here is the situation for Netanyahu:

In spite of enormous pressure on Shelly Yachimovich of Labor, she refuses to join the Likud-Beitenu coalition because the factions are too far apart on basic issues.  Pheww!! 

He does not want to alienate the haredi parties.  But he wants a coalition.

Thus, he may have to take both Bennett and Lapid, without Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ).  That would bring him 68 mandates or 70 if he brought in Kadima.

Or, if he can draw Bennett away from Lapid, he can include Shas and UTJ with Bennett for 67 mandates or 69 with Kadima. 

In either event, I would say he will have to restructure his deal with Livni, even as he retains her party in the coalition.

My prediction is that we're on the cusp of a resolution here.  What we will still need to watch, even after resolution, is which party is granted which portfolios.  If he does lure Bennett from Lapid, what he offers Habayit Hayehudi will be a big part of the story.

Another major part will be the selection of Defense Minister. This will tell us a good deal about what Netanyahu intends and how secure he is.

~~~~~~~~~~

Sincerely do I hope I have helped my readers to wrap their heads around a crazy and complex situation, and not simply caused confusion.  Hopefully, in my next post I will be able to turn to other matters. 

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/3/3/march-3-2013-deplorable.html

The mess is of considerable proportions, as I see it.  Redeemable, yes.  With determination, inner confidence, strength and faith.  But are we seeing these factors in play sufficiently?  A friend told me today that she's feeling demoralized, and she's not alone.

I actually had hopes a day ago, that by the time I sat down to write today, late in my day, there would have been an announcement about Bennett having signed on to the coalition.  Yesterday Likud was saying that it was coming any minute -- maybe last night, maybe during the day today.  Now reports have it that it will be in the "next few days."  Obviously, while there has been progress, everything is not going quite as smoothly as certain parties would have us believe. I believe the catch is Livni's role in the government.

The parameters of the current political situation are beginning to become less clouded.  The deal between Bennett and Lapid was, it seems, not that neither would join without the other, but that neither would negotiate terms that were unacceptable to the other. And so, apparently Bennett held out for hardi draft terms that are acceptable to Lapid, and Lapid is making noise about the roles Livni is slated to play, a matter of greater concern to Bennett.

~~~~~~~~~~

While perhaps we are close to being able to assume that Bennett ultimately will sign on, it is still not clear at all whether Lapid will.  The latest news says negotiations with him begin tomorrow, but he's hedging his bets and also maneuvering himself into position to head the opposition, should he not join the coalition.  (Were he to head the opposition, Lapid would work day and night to bring the government down.  Surely Netanyahu realizes this.)

If they both do join, with Likud having accomodated their terms, then it will be apparent that Netanyahu's ploy in bringing on Livni was a huge failure.

~~~~~~~~~~

But we're not there yet. Netanyahu is also hedging his bets. Maariv has it that he's currently courting Shelly Yachimovich of Labor for all he's worth -- allegedly promising Labor both the Finance Ministry and the Industry, Trade, and Labor Ministry, the two top economic portfolios; with an additional promise to back MK Binyamin Ben Eliezer to succeed Shimon Peres as president.

If he brought in Yachimovich he'd attempt to wash his hands of both Bennett and Lapid, and would take in the hareidi parties, Shas and UTJ, along with Livni and Mofaz.

This, my friends, makes my hair stand on end, which is quite a trick since I have curly hair. It would represent an absolute betrayal of those who voted for Likud and of the members of the Likud faction itself, many of whom are right wing. 

Perhaps Yachimovich is too smart to allow herself to be used by Netanyahu, and perhaps both Bennett and Lapid ultimately will be on board.  But I think it's time the prime minister heard from us.

This is a communication that is particularly important for Israelis to send.

Let him know that you are a voting Israeli and consider his moving left a betrayal of those who elected him and of the faction he is supposed to represent.  Tell him that he's being watched, and that how he behaves now will directly affect his political future.  If you've voted Likud in the past and do not think you will next time around -- tell him!!

If you are Israeli, please share with others. If you are not an Israeli, but have relatives or friends who are, send this to them.

E-mail: Memshala@pmo.gov.il and also pm_eng2@it.pmo.gov.il (underscore after pm) use both addresses. 

~~~~~~~~~~ 

Now we come to the issue of Iran, an ugly situation that is rapidly deteriorating into one more ugly still. It is because of this situation, beyond all others, that Netanyahu's political games are so incomprehensible and so deplorable. 

He tells the world how important facing down Iran is, and I have praised him mightily for doing so.  But he's not putting Israel in the proper place for facing down the threat -- this requires a strong, cohesive, right wing government. 

~~~~~~~~~~ 

The Telegraph (UK) has published pictures, taken recently, of a heavy water production plant, in Arak, Iran, 150 miles southwest of Teheran.  Heavy water is used in operating a reactor that produces plutonium, which can be used to produce an atomic bomb.  The pictures show activity, including a cloud of steam, that indicates heavy water production. 

What is more, pictures show anti-aircraft missile and artillery sites protect the plant.  IAEA inspectors have been denied access to the plant since 2011.  And Iran is stonewalling on providing any information about what's going on there. 

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4350002,00.html 

~~~~~~~~~~ 

This is being referred to as Iran's plan B for securing a nuclear weapon.  But Iran's plan A is still in operation, and being accelerated!  

And so I must ask, how stupid are the world's leaders?  Do they not understand what they're going to be facing down the road?  Or do they understand and -- for totally incomprehensible reasons -- just not care?  Perhaps they delude themselves that it won't be so bad, and that containment will work.  Perhaps they are simply cowards. 

Today, the second round of negotiations between P5 + 1 nations and Iran, at Almaty, Kazakhstan, ended.  Nothing was achieved, but Reuters reports that the Iranians were "upbeat," seeing the talks as a "positive step" in which the six powers tried to "get closer to our viewpoint."    

The only thing that was decided was that experts would meet in Istanbul in March, and that political discussions would resume in Almaty on April 5. 

~~~~~~~~~~ 

"I hope the Iranian side is looking positively on the proposal we put forward," said EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.  

The attitude expressed by her exemplifies precisely what's wrong with these negotiations.  I have noted this on previous occasions. They are being conducted as if between two equal parties:  You give this, I'll give that.  I make an offer and see if it pleases you.  Instead of a clear message (however it is couched diplomatically): We don't like what you're doing.  Continue as you have been and we'll ensure that you are stopped.  If we have to, we'll blow you to kingdom-come. Now would you like to discuss how to dismantle your program? 

A spokesman for Ashton said, "We are looking for flexibility from the Iranians."  A splendid example of "head in the clouds" thinking. 

~~~~~~~~~~ 

Israeli officials seem the only ones who are seeing matters straight, with regard to these meetings. Said one official: 

"The Iranian strategy is clear: to draw out diplomacy and continue to engage, but in parallel to continue enriching uranium.  They are engaged in a consistent strategy to draw out the talks. Their ultimate goal is to keep taking, and one day surprise the world with nuclear tests." 

While the negotiating parties are talking about making an offer to Iran regarding cutting back sanctions in return for certain actions, the Israeli officials are speaking about "dramatically upgrading" the sanctions, which must be backed by a credible and convincing military option.  

An official in Jerusalem clarified, saying that the international community must clearly state what the "or else" part of the "stop the bomb or else" equation is. 

This is what they're afraid to do. 

~~~~~~~~~~ 

In addition to "unnamed Israeli officials," the prime minister himself made a statement today about the need for "military sanctions": 

“We have the problem of Iran that is continuing to defy the international community, [and] doesn’t seem to seek an end to its military nuclear program,” said Netanyahu.  "It continues to defy all the international standards and I believe that this requires the international community to ratchet up its sanctions and make clear that if this continues there will be also a credible military sanction. I think no other means will make Iran obey the wishes of the international community.” 

http://www.timesofisrael.com/after-talks-end-netanyahu-calls-for-military-sanctions-on-iran/ 

~~~~~~~~~~ 

Israel's Channel 10, cited by Times of Israel, on Monday reported that:

"US President Barack Obama will tell Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that a 'window of opportunity' for a military strike on Iran will open in June,

"Obama will come bearing the message that if diplomatic efforts and sanctions don’t bear fruit, Israel should 'sit tight' and let Washington take the stage, even if that means remaining on the sidelines during a US military operation...Netanyahu will be asked to refrain from any military action and keep a low profile, avoiding even the mention of a strike." The report cited unnamed officials.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/obama-to-tell-netanyahu-us-gearing-up-for-strike/

~~~~~~~~~~

Well, in the context of the above discussion, I felt it responsible to report this, while indicating that I find it very hard to believe.  Especially is this so with Hagel now to be secretary of defense.

What is most credible about this is the fact that Obama indicates he would not want Israel involved, clearly so that it would not appear to the Arab world that the US was allied with Israel or acting on Israel's behalf.  President Bush senior pulled something similar when he went after Saddam Hussein.

Plus, there is the remote possibility that the exposure of Iran's plan B, which is now starting to be operational, might be stiffening Obama's back and forcing him to face realities.

But, as I've discussed before, it's a tough sell, getting Israel to sit back and trust Obama on this. Nor is it prudent Israeli policy to put Israel's security in the hands of another nation. 

I ponder what is expected to happen in June that would allegedly open the "window of opportunity" that is referred to.  And whether this would bring us past our own "window of opportunity" for striking.  That is, if we waited, and the US failed to strike, if we would find we no longer could because we lack the equipment to hit those reinforced bunkers.

~~~~~~~~~~

That Iran is a menace to Israel is evident even beyond the issue of its nuclear arms development.  In recent days, terrorist plots against Jews and Israelis have been exposed in Nigeria and Cyprus.

http://www.jns.org/news-briefs/2013/2/21/iran-backed-terror-plots-against-israelis-revealed-in-nigeri.html

~~~~~~~~~~

Mick Jagger and the Rolling Stones are coming to perform here in Israel on Monday, April 15,to help celebrate our 65th Independence Day. This is in spite of pressure brought to bear by British, European and US Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) groups.

"We’ve been slammed and smacked and twittered a lot by the anti-Israeli side," said Mick Jagger, the band’s leader... "All I can say is: anything worth doing is worth overdoing. So we decided to add a concert on Tuesday.'

"This is a huge mistake for the Stones," declared BDS proponent Rabbi Lynn Gottlieb. "They stand to lose a lot of money as a result of showing solidarity with Zionism, because their most devoted fans also support boycotting Israel."

"I don’t really count myself as a very sophisticated businessperson," Jagger responded..."I’m a creative artist."

Credit: Spinner

Well bravo!  So heartening to know we have friends of courage.

And Gottlieb?  She should hang her head in shame for her statement.  Her head should hang so low that she can never lift it up again. Opposed to someone who shows "solidarity with Zionism," and calls herself a "rabbi."

How bitterly ironic is this situation.

You can see further information on Israel Matzav:

http://israelmatzav.blogspot.ca/2013/02/mick-jagger-and-rolling-stones-to-defy.html

I whole-heartedly endorse the suggestion -- made by the person who sent me this information -- that everyone go out and buy some of Jagger's music so that he comes out ahead on this.  (Thanks Paul R.)

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/2/27/february-27-2013-a-mess.html

What's negative?  Oh, I won't say everything. Should never say that.  But there's a great deal that is, and the sense one gets when surveying the situation is an enormous weariness.
 
Let's begin with coalition formation here in Israel.  PM Netanyahu was given 28 days to form that new coalition.  By my calculation, his mandate from President Peres began on February 3, which brings us to this Sunday, March 3.  He can then request an extension of 14 additional days. After that, if he has no government, he will have struck out.
 
Maybe he will get his act together.  A good number of people continue to think so. (See the latest news, below.) But he'd better hustle.  So far, the only one officially on board is Tzipi Livni and her party of the same name.  Already there's dissension within her party, because she seemed to have passed over number two on the list, Amram Mitzna, for number three, Amir Peretz, with regard to a ministry.  Although this is hardly worth belaboring, it gives a sense of how disorganized, how unpleasant, matters are.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Good old Tzipi. She has given an interview to (the US) Channel 2's program "Meet the Press," during which she said that she objected to construction in E1, as well as in the northern Jerusalem neighborhood of Ramat Shlomo.  We should renew negotiations with the PA, she said (although she did not indicate how that would happen if the PA was unwilling to do so) and “avoid provocations that only turn the world against us.”
 
No surprise that she would say this -- it's a reiteration of her earlier refrain as foreign minister. But it remains just as offensive as it was the first time around.
 
As to the building in Ramat Shlomo, it's been on the books for years.  It was back in 2010 that a routine announcement was made about the building while VP Biden was here. The Americans went ballistic, claiming we had embarrassed the vice president, and so the project was shelved.  That is, until this past December.  As I write, no actual building has been started.  And if Tzipi had her way, it would never start, so as to keep the US and EU content.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Neither Bennett of Habayit Hayehudi or Lapid of Yesh Atid have yet joined the coalition.  And there is question as to whether Shas will -- and whether Shas and Yesh Atid will sit together. As well as whether Lapid and Bennett will continue to honor their reputed agreement that neither would join the coalition without the other.
 
We are facing a world that is smoldering and close to going up in flames, and the first order of business now should be coming together in strength to cope with the threats Israel faces.
 
And so I have had limited patience with the fact that, at least until now, coalition discussions have reportedly revolved around such issues as whether hareidi yeshiva students will have military deferments until age 21 or age 24, whether there will be 200 exemptions or 1,000.  Yes, these issues must be resolved, slowly, in my opinion.  In the long run it's important for the country.  But first things first.
 
The qualified positive news -- as I write -- is that Bennett has said that for the first time negotiations with Likud are making progress: "have finally begun to deal with essence [policies that would be adopted by the government]. This is good news." 

Credit: Flash 90
 
The next meeting between Likud-Beitenu and Bayit Hayehudi is said to be critical.  And Yesh Atid?  Not part of these negotiations, apparently -- although Lapid is aware of them.  He has to make a decision as to whether to also join the coalition.  (That means, the way I'm reading it, that it's not that he's being excluded, which would mean Bennett broke the deal, but that it's not clear if he wants in.)
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Let's look, briefly, at some of the ways in which the world is smoldering:
 
The Palestinian Arab violence in Judea and Samaria has not abated, but, if anything, has increased.  This is all about the prisoners, but now with a new hook.  On Saturday, Arafat Jaradat, who had been arrested because of his involvement in street violence, died in the Megiddo Prison. 
 
His death is said by Israeli authorities to be the result of heart failure.  At first it was thought a heart attack killed him.  An autopsy, which ruled that out, has found no evidence of foul play and no definitive reason for his death.  Some signs of external injury were found that are consistent with attempts to resucusitate him -- such as broken ribs, but not sufficient to explain his death.  More tests are being run.
 
See here for an article about how CPR resuscitation can legitimately cause broken ribs and more:
 
http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=60191
 
The Palestinian Authority is claiming that he died as the result of torture.  Declared Abbas, "Israel wants anarchy by killing our children."  The funeral, attended by thousands, was in the village of Sa'ir near Hevron yesterday.  Jaradat was given a 21 gun salute at his funeral.  A hero. A martyr. 

Credit: Guardian (uk)
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
PM Netanyahu has sent messages, both directly and via third parties, to the Palestinian Authority, telling them to use their influence to cool the riots. This was seen as a way of telling Abbas that he was seen as having control here. 
 
There are at present varying opinions at the whether the violence will cool down.  Right after the funeral, it was high.  Roughly 150 Arabs tossed Molotov cocktails, and improvised grenades at IDF soldiers at Rachel's Tomb near Bethlehem, endangering worshippers at the Tomb as well.  There were also 500 rioting in Beitunya, 100 rioting near Kalkilya, and clashes between some 50 Palestinian Arabs and Israeli security in Beit Omar. Another 200 rioted in Beit Anunu, while Hevron was the site of violence as well.
 
A statement by Abbas yesterday, however, is being interpreted by some as a sign that he did want to cool it without seeming to back down:  "We know how to act and we won't allow them [Israelis] to drag us to their square." 
 
Seems to me wishful thinking, as the violence has continued during the day today.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
There are two interpretations of what this violence now is about.
 
One position maintains that this is the beginning of a new intifada and the other, that this is a tactic being employed before Obama visits. The two positions are not mutually exclusive.
 
Khaled Abu Toameh says this:
"There are many signs that the Palestinian Authority is seeking to escalate tensions in the West Bank ahead of US President Barack Obama's visit to the region next month.

"Although the Palestinian Authority probably does not want an all-out confrontation between Palestinians and Israelis at this stage, some Palestinian Authority officials in Ramallah believe that a 'mini-intifada' would serve the Palestinians' interests, especially on the eve of Obama's visit.

"The officials hope that scenes of daily clashes between Israeli soldiers and Palestinians in the West Bank will prompt Obama to exert pressure on the Israeli government to make far-reaching concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

"This is why the Palestinian Authority leadership has been encouraging its constituents lately to wage a 'popular intifada' against Israel, each time finding another excuse to initiate confrontations between Palestinians and Israel.

"...By encouraging a 'popular intifada,' the Palestinian Authority leadership is hoping to bring the Palestinian issue back to the top of the agenda of the US Administration and Israel.

"Palestinian Authority officials have in recent months expressed concern over the lack of interest in the Palestinian issue both in the US and Israel.

"The Palestinians have been absent from speeches delivered by Obama over the past few months, and the majority of parties that ran in the last Israeli elections did not even mention the Palestinian issue.

"But now that all eyes are once again turned toward the Middle East in anticipation of Obama's planned visit, the Palestinian Authority is working hard to draw the world's attention to the Palestinian issue, and hoping to achieve its goal by encouraging clashes between Palestinian protesters and the IDF and Jewish settlers in the West Bank.

"Although the violence has thus far remained on a low flame, it is expected to intensify as the date of Obama's visit approaches." (Emphasis added)

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3598/palestinians-plan-violence

~~~~~~~~~~

Note that Abu Toameh says, "...the Palestinian Authority probably does not want an all-out confrontation between Palestinians and Israelis at this stage," which means they may seek a larger confrontation later.

But even if the PA intends to foment only a "mini" intifada, matters could well get out of hand.

What fascinates me is that the PA believes that by behaving violently they can gain points with Obama. They are not necessarily wrong.  But how perverse is this situation.  Violence works.  The Palestinian Arabs should receive concessions when they've put aside violence, and show eagerness for genuine compromise, and only then.

~~~~~~~~~~

A Grad Katyusha rocket was fired from Gaza into Ashkelon this morning.  The first time that this has happened since the end of Operation Pillar of Defense in November.  No one was injured but a road was damaged.

A connection between this and the increased violence in Judea and Samaria?

~~~~~~~~~~

According to several sources, Assad has fled from the border area of the Golan, which is now controlled by rebel forces.

 “The regime wants the rebels to take control of all villages on the border area so that Israel intervenes in the conflict, and then Assad can accuse Israel of conspiring against him,” according to Aiman Abu-Jable, an anti-Assad activist on the Israeli side of the Golan.

See here for further details:

http://www.timesofisrael.com/rebels-claim-to-control-syrian-side-of-israel-border/

~~~~~~~~~~

There are reports that Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah has flown to Iran for treatment for cancer.  According to the Voice of Lebanon, he has severe cancer-related complications. Hezbollah is denying that he has died.

http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/02/26/hezbollah-denies-death-of-nasrallah-as-rumors-spread-he-is-in-iran-for-cancer-treatment/

~~~~~~~~~~

Top of the list in terms of our smoldering world is Iran/Hezbollah. But the subject is sufficiently complex so that I have decided to table serious discussion for my next posting.

~~~~~~~~~~

I  will close with a very positive, inspiring Youtube -- "This is Israel: Resilience."  We have so very much to be proud of.  With all the frustrations, Israelis are special.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q2nLAWVzU4&feature=player_embedded#!

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 
 
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted. 

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/2/27/february-26-2013-decidedly-negative.html

Purim will be celebrated Saturday night and Sunday here, as elsewhere in the world, except for walled cities such as Jerusalem, where Shushan Purim will be celebrated on Sunday night and Monday.

The story of Purim is one of a threat to the existence of the Jewish people, overcome against great odds because of the determined actions of Mordecai and Esther.  God's name is not mentioned anywhere in the Megillat Esther.  We are to understand, however, that God is present, working behind the scenes.

The lessons -- that we must trust in God, even when we cannot see his hand., and that we must act decisively on behalf of our people -- are of paramount importance today.   It should not escape us that the story of Esther takes place in Persia, which is the modern Iran.  Nor should we forget that Mordecai refused to bow down to the wicked Haman.

~~~~~~~~~~

Today is a fast day: We fast just as Queen Esther and Mordecai fasted before she approached the king to ask him to save the Jews.

Then, after Shabbat comes the celebration, and the acts of charity and giving.

Credit: JoyfulJewish

~~~~~~~~~~ 

I do not expect to post again until Monday, at the earliest.

~~~~~~~~~~

Here, I would like to pick up on yesterday's topic, as fuzzy as the larger picture remains.  Will either Bennett and/or Lapid ultimately join the coalition?  My crystal ball is foggy today, so I am unsure.  Bennett is putting out mixed messages right now.

My gut tells me that ultimately he will, which (if the deal with Lapid holds) means Lapid will too.  It is Bennett's perspective that concerns me, however.  We need his nationalist voice in the government, if Netanyahu is to have a government. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Yesterday I wrote about reference to Livni as a fig leaf and her insistence that she will never play that role:  If she finds Netanyahu is not serious about negotiations, she will leave, she says.

And so this is yet another scenario that I didn't describe yesterday.  Maybe she WILL be out of there -- walking away in no time at all. 

~~~~~~~~~~

And...it is still possible that if neither Bennett nor Lapid signs on for the coalition, that Netanyahu may have to throw up his hands and say he has no government.  An incredible prospect in light of his reputation (badly tarnished at this point) as a very savvy politician. 

But, in all honesty, a prospect that might not be bad in light of the latest rumor I've picked up: I'm being told that Netanyahu has offered Mofaz -- with TWO mandates -- the Ministry of Defense. An impeccably reliable source was said to have confirmed this.  We'll see in due course.

~~~~~~~~~~

Moshe Arens has written a piece on Israel's persistent and deluded hope that it might be possible to make peace with the Palestinian Arabs, "Vain hope springs eternal."

In this article he explores the various reasons why Israelis keep coming back to this notion, and what the repeated failures have been.

"And so it went, one disappointment after another. As the saying goes, 'Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.' Israel has been fooled not once, not twice, but at least five times in a quest for peace that has gone nowhere."

Now says Arens, "Abbas is not capable of fulfilling the two basic requirements Israel would demand in any agreement involving significant territorial concessions: First, that the agreement would constitute the end of the conflict and that no further Palestinian demands would be made of Israel. And second, that the territories ceded would not become bases for terrorist activities against Israel."  (Emphasis added)

http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/vain-hope-springs-eternal.premium-1.504412

~~~~~~~~~~

I alluded obliquely yesterday to Livni's prior role as negotiator with the Palestinian Arabs.  She served that role when Ehud Olmert was prime minister and conducted talks with PA negotiator Ahmed Qurei (Abu Ala'a).  In 2008, Qurei praised Livni for insisting that Jerusalem had to be kept on the table in negotiations:
"There can be no peace without Jerusalem. How can the Palestinians agree to such a peace? If you want peace, you have to put Jerusalem on the table. [Livni] didn't say she would give up Jerusalem, but she will leave it on the table."

Now there have been charges by Bennett with regard to her readiness to give up Jerusalem, which charges she denies, saying she safeguarded the city. 

But the final point here is that even with a prime minister more receptive to making enormous compromises, she was not able to pull it off.  

~~~~~~~~~~

Where Israel is likely headed right now, when all this talk is done, is not to the negotiating table, but to a new intifada.  I've been reporting for some time now on increased violence by Palestinian Arabs -- most recently, it has been violence that broke out during demonstrations for the release of hunger-striking prisoners. That violence has continued intermittently.

On Tuesday, Kadoura Fares, a Fatah official, said that there will be increased violence if the four hunger striking prisoners are not released immediately.

"Sometimes the fire starts out small and expands to a large inferno," he said.  He sought to imply in his statement that they don't want trouble, but sometimes emotions just get the better of them.

In reality, the PA has been milking the prisoner issue as a way to pressure and delegitimize Israel.  Not to mention, as an excuse for upping the violence.

The last intifada was supposed to have started spontaneously when Ariel Sharon went up the Temple Mount -- as if Jews have no right to be there, and the presence of a Sharon there so upset Muslims that they went wild.  The fact of the matter is that the violence had been planned beforehand by Arafat, and that he was merely waiting for a pretext.  I have documented evidence on this.

So what is the situation now?  Is the plight of the prisoners meant to be another pretext?

~~~~~~~~~~

There are two issues that the Palestinian Arabs are protesting.  One is the fact that Samer Issawi (their "celebrity" prisoner) and Ayman Sharawna were picked up after having been released in the Shalit exchange and re-arrested for breaking the terms of their release agreements.

But then there are two others -- Tareq Qaadan and Jafar Azzidine -- who are in prison under administrative detention.  And I think it's important to clarify what this means.  These men have not been charged in court and sentenced.  Their imprisonment, for a specific period of time only, was approved by a court, after having received information on their actions/connections/plans.

Israel is not a country where people are thrown into prison on a whim and the key thrown away.  There is strict judicial oversight in cases such as these. And there are solid reasons why the situation has to be handled this way:

We are, quite simply, at war.  To try some of these terrorists might mean exposing contacts or methods of securing information, perhaps putting people at risk or creating the inability to secure further important information.  And so, the court is provided with classified information and makes a decision.  If these guys are in prison, there is a reason. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Other information confirms the likelihood of more Arab violence:

"A senior IDF officer warned Thursday morning during an interview on Army Radio that army analysts believe it is likely the PA will choose to launch an intifada over returning to the negotiating table for final status talks with Israel.

"The officer, who serves in the regions of Judea and Samaria, said Thursday in an interview on Army Radio that soldiers are currently training to deal with four-week confrontation scenarios."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/165496

~~~~~~~~~~

And then this last piece of information on Palestinian Arab violence:

Tekoa is a community in Gush Etzion, not far outside of Jerusalem.  Once upon a time, the road into Tekoa was dangerous, as it made its way past Arab villages.  But in recent years, with the construction of a new road, the way was considered safe.  That is, until last night.

People I know and care about were in a vehicle travelling on that road, when Arabs threw large rocks at the car.  Only because the windshield had been reinforced were they saved from a lethal situation -- the window broke into spiderweb-like cracks but did not shatter inward. 

I have now learned that there were other cars on the road that were attacked at the same time.

The Arabs are becoming bolder and more lethal.

What I tremble to anticipate is that in the run-up to Obama's visit, we'll do "confidence building" gestures such as letting terrorists out of prison, or cutting back on checkpoints. When instead (forgive my political incorrectness) we should be breaking a few heads. They have to fear us.

~~~~~~~~~~

After Purim, I will want to look in more detail at recent evidence of world-wide involvement in terrorism of Iran and Hezbollah.  But for now, enough.  More than enough.

I look forward to my grandchildren in costume, and to the Purim meal (seudah) and a great deal more. 

Chag Purim Sameach!

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

 http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/2/21/february-21-2012-purim.html