Not sure where we're going, but...

Signs in Syria right now suggest either an ultimate Assad victory -- which is what Minister of Strategic Affairs Yuval Steinitz is suggesting: http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Steinitz-Assad-may-prevail-in-Syrias-civil-war-316031 -- or a dividing of the country with Assad's Alawites in control of a portion of the country (and Sunnis and Kurds likely dividing up the rest).

I wrote last about Syrian encroachment towards Quneitra and Israel's border.  Two things have evolved in this context.

First, Israel sent a warning to Assad not to move tanks into the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria that was established in 1974, after the Yom Kippur War.  Assad sent a message back, via a third party, that his troops were there only to go after rebels.  He had no intention of attacking Israel and asked that Israel not respond.

This, then, remains Assad's position: he has no desire to tangle with Israel when he's still deeply immersed in fighting the civil war.  This caution, of course, does not prevent him from saber rattling, so that he also warns that of a "strategic response" to Israel and yesterday, according to the Lebanese paper, Al-Akhbar, he said he is serious about opening up a Golan front. ,

~~~~~~~~~~

What has also happened, is that the UN force in that demilitarized zone -- the UN Disengagement Observer Force, UNDOF -- is falling apart.  Austria has decided to pull out its 380 troops, the single largest contingent in the force, and UN Secretary General Ban is scrambling to find replacements.

Prime Minister Netanyahu took this opportunity to make the point, at Sunday's Cabinet meeting, that Israel must rely on herself and cannot depend on international troops for security.

But we really don't have to consider this situation for the point to be made: This is a given, in light of a long history of failures of UN troops.  The most egregious situation, in my opinion, involved UNIFIL -- the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, which was reinforced in 2006, when the war with Hezbollah ended.  According to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, this force was supposed to prevent the rearming of Hezbollah via armaments smuggled from Syria.  

Today Hezbollah has more rockets, and better, than before the war.  I remember reading a report in which an officer with UNIFIL said they weren't seeing any reinforcements coming across the border from Syria. But then he also indicated that there were no missions sent out at night. Duhh.  You think just maybe that's when the smuggling took place?  The motto for these troops seems to be "Look nice and avoid danger."  Or perhaps, "Pretend to be doing the job, but favor Arab states when it's possible."

~~~~~~~~~~

National Security Advisor Maj. Gen. (res.) Ya'akov Amidror has written a briefing for the JCPA on "The Risks of Foreign Peace Keeping Forces in the West Bank":
"UNIFIL in southern Lebanon is more prone to intervene against Israeli self-defense operations than against acts of aggression by Hezbollah."

http://jcpa.org/article/the-risks-of-foreign-peacekeeping-forces-in-the-west-bank/

Credit: TimesofIsrael

~~~~~~~~~~

Netanyahu referred to UNDOF now to emphasize that Israel will never rely on international forces:  Kerry, looking for ways to restart the "peace process," recently proposed that perhaps international forces might replace Israeli forces in the Jordan Valley, if a state were to be established.  Nothing doing, he's saying -- and he will raise this issue with Kerry in the future.

~~~~~~~~~~

But Kerry, it has now been announced, will not be coming here this week, as had been planned.  

Some sources are saying that he's remaining in Washington to participate in high level talks on Syria (about which, more below). 

http://www.timesofisrael.com/kerry-postpones-israel-visit/

While other sources are indicating that he wants to give Abbas more time to drop its pre-conditions for negotiations.

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=9873

~~~~~~~~~~

Those conditions are familiar to all of us: Freezing all building beyond the Green Line, acknowledging the '67 line as the basis for negotiations, etc.

Netanyahu calls preconditions an "impassable obstacle."

But this doesn't deter our "peace partners."  The PLO just renewed its call for "right of return"  -- to which Israel has responded that this is contrary to the whole notion of "two states for two people," which would mean "refugees" going to the Palestinian state.

And there's more, this time from Jabil Rajoub -- former head of the West Bank Security Forces under Arafat, and currently a member of Fatah Central Committee and chairman of the Palestinian Football (Soccer) Association.  In an interview on an Arab channel, regarding an upcoming visit to the area by the famous Barcelona Football Club, he was asked if the team would also visit the "occupied" lands. 

His response:

"They are coming to the occupied lands. All of Palestine - from the [Jordan] river to the [Mediterranean] sea [i.e., all of Israel] - it's all occupied."

Palestinian Media Watch picked this up.
 
http://www.palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=157&doc_id=9153

Kerry is even dimmer than I already think he is, if he returns to this area any time soon in an attempt to get those talks moving.

~~~~~~~~~~

As to the demand for a building freeze...

Netanyahu has now said that construction in communities in Judea and Samaria will continue, "and continues today...we need to realize what is going on around us. We have to be smart about it, not just correct.  Settlement in the blocs wouldn't substantively change the ability to reach an agreement, the real question is whether or not there is a will to recognize the Jewish State."

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4390688,00.html

And indeed, the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics figures show housing starts in Judea and Samaria rose significantly in the first three months of 2013 compared to the same period last year,

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4390241,00.html

~~~~~~~~~~

However...

Yesterday, Israel Army Radio, drawing on data from the Housing and Construction Ministry, reported that since the beginning of 2013 not one apartment has been marketed beyond the Green Line in Jerusalem.  Israel Lands Administration sources indicated that the Prime Minister's Office was directly delaying marketing of plots for housing in eastern Jerusalem.

To this, Avigdor Lieberman, head of Yisrael Beitenu and chair of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, responded:

"One should view this as a temporary hiatus. We have an interest in Kerry succeeding. You don't always have to be right; you can also be smart."

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/lieberman-acknowledges-east-jerusalem-settlement-freeze-we-want-kerry-to-succeed-1.528906

His observation that "you don't always have to be right; you can also be smart," is too close to Netanyahu's "we have to be smart about it, not just correct," to be a coincidence.  Enough said, here.

This information is not really news -- we knew it.  What I wonder about is the dynamics of a situation in which building in a portion of our united -- never again to be divided -- capital is frozen by Netanyahu, while he crows about building that is going on in Judea and Samaria.

Maybe I'm looking for logic when there isn't any.  Maybe it's just that Kerry whispered in Netanyahu's ear that this is what might have the strongest impact on Abbas. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Now as to Syria, and US policy there.  There had been talk about enforcing a no-fly zone, and that was rejected.  Then it was decided that rebels would be "vetted" -- to rule out the more radical elements -- and "lethal" armaments that would help them to take down the Assad regime would be provided to them. 

Today, however, we're hearing that an immediate policy assessment is being called for because the rebel movement has become increasingly fragmented.  One problem, then is that it's close to impossible to weed out the radicals and provide assistance with any assurance that it will go only to relatively secular, moderate rebels -- or to identify the rebel group with the strength that might allow them to succeed.

In addition, the fragmentation has weakened the rebels. The American administration is alarmed by the turning point in the civil war, which means that even if they determine to whom to send the weapons, it may be too late.  Having taken Quasyr, Assad is now projecting a "major offensive" in the coming days, with the goal of fully taking Aleppo,  Syria's largest city, it is currently held by a mix of government loyalists and different,  Some 5,000 Hezbollah fighters have now surrounded the city. 

There is an expressed US concern about supply routes to get the weapons in, and time for training so they can be effectively used. 

Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is cited by the JPost as saying, "Assad has established a relatively secure corridor along the Lebanese border...When you start actually drawing the map, you see what rebel-held really means, and it's very sketchy.

~~~~~~~~~~

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) has accused the Obama administration of "fiddling while Syria burns."  And indeed, indecisiveness is the mark of this administration.  On Syria, Obama missed the boat.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/White-House-reassess-policy-on-arming-Syria-rebels-316105

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/6/11/june-11-2013-slogging-along.html

On May 16, I had written about plans to establish a new Palestinian Arab city near Jericho, reportedly to be called Nu'aimah, which would house tens of thousands of residents and require the transfer of almost 2,000 dunam (500 acres) of land from the Jordan Valley Regional Council -- which is in area C -- to the PA for the project.

At that time, I indicated reports that Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, on learning about this project, ordered it stopped immediately.  But the stop was until Ya'alon "could formulate a position on the issue."

So I conferred upon Ya'alon a "tentative bravo."  "...we'll have to wait to see what position he formulates," I wrote."

And now we know what his position is (at least on the record).  He has given the project his go ahead. 

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168504

And it is this that is absolutely NOT ACCEPTABLE.

~~~~~~~~~~

We might say that we should not be surprised.  Although this part of the picture is not making it broadly into the media,  my information is that Kerry is leaning hard on the Netanyahu administration regarding concessions to the PA, and this project had the "endorsement" of the secretary of state.  I would say, understanding him as I do, that Ya'alon, left to his own better judgment, would never have given this the go-ahead.  It's likely that he got the word from his boss, Netanyahu, after Kerry had "whispered" in his ear.

But I do not shrug and say, "nu, this is the way it is.  This is the political situation."  Not at all.

There simply is a time to say "NO," no matter how many words -- tender or threatening -- Kerry may have whispered in Netanyahu's ear.  The first and overriding reason is because this puts 10,000 Arabs in the Jordan Valley. And, you may have noticed, Netanyahu -- who insists that he will never cave on security -- has referred to the Jordan Valley as an area that is important for Israeli security.

And then there is the fact that this is, Area C, fully Israeli land under Oslo -- an area on which the Arabs have no business building.  What is happening is they are encroaching on this land in order to put facts on the ground.  And we're going to cooperate with this??? 

NOT ACCEPTABLE. 

We have a government that is voluntarily giving our land away.

~~~~~~~~~~

David Alhiani, chairman of the Jordan Valley Regional Council, says this is land that was slated for development by the Council.  What is more, he says that the development of this region by the PA will effectively close off a large part of the Jordan Valley to Israelis.

Alhiani's take is different from mine:

"The people who are going to be getting this city are criminals who started out by squatting and living in tents, then moved on to makeshift shelters, and finally began illegal construction of homes. Now the government is giving its stamp of approval to this behavior.

"The problem has been clear and growing for years, he added, but the Civil Administration chose to ignore it – and is now trying to 'cover its tracks' by officially legalizing the city."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168412#.UapFdNJmiSo

Incensed, he says the Jordan Valley Regional Council is going to fight this.

~~~~~~~~~~

I hope that you will also be incensed. 

Please! Write to Defense Minister Ya'alon immediately and tell him it is wrong to surrender Area C land in the Jordan Valley to the PA.  Tell him that issues of security and Israeli rights to the land are at stake. Ask him to reverse his decision before it is too late. 

This is especially important if you are an Israeli citizen (which he should be informed of) -- and I ask you to share this with other Israeli citizens as well.  If you are Likud voter, and disappointed with how the Likud coalition is acting, let him know this, as well.

myaalon@knesset.gov.il

Write also to Prime Minister Netanyahu with the same message:

Memshala@pmo.gov.il and also pm_eng2@it.pmo.gov.il (underscore after pm) use both addresses 

No speeches, keep it short and respectful, but make your message clear. 

At the bottom of this e-mail, I will prove addresses for other members of the coalition who should be contacted about this.  Making noise does make a difference.  Please, take the time. 

~~~~~~~~~~

In my last posting I asked you to contact JNF about the outrage of a fee paid to Bill Clinton for a speech he will give here in connection with Peres's birthday celebration.  Some of you have since written to me to share the response of JNF, which is that it wasn't involved.

I will simply say this:  A friend here took the time to investigate the story (thanks Judith!) and what seemed to be the case is that everyone was blaming someone else.  There was no real consistency to the stories.  It did not take long to conclude that it was unlikely that we'll ever know the full story. 

Paying Bill Clinton (or his foundation) half-a-million dollars for a speech is obscene in my book no matter who here in Israel is paying.

And you might like to see Michael Widlanski's right-on comments regarding Peres's bash, more broadly.
http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/06/04/blowing-on-shimon-peress-candles/

But in the end this is very small potatoes compared to giving away part of the Jordan Valley to the Arabs.

~~~~~~~~~~

A follow-up on little Zakkai here:

Remember Zakkai?  He had four surgeries by the age of two for persistent tumors on his spine.  After all (benign but aggressive) tumor tissue appears to have been removed, it re-emerges.

Zakkai just had a new scan of his spine, and his parents write:

"Friday's scans indicate that Zakkai's tumor has reared its ugly head again... it sounds like we're heading for some additional interventions.

"...x-rays indicate that the curvature of his spine has gotten worse (in both respects, left/right and front/back).  Accordingly, our orthopedic surgeon wants to discuss options as well..."

Please, friends, continue to pray for this little boy.  Rephael Zakkai Avraham ben Yakira Avigael

~~~~~~~~~~

After more than two weeks of fighting, the Syrian army -- with considerable assistance from Hezbollah -- has now bested rebel troops in Qusayr, near the border with Lebanon.  The city has been significantly leveled.

But with this Syrian army victory comes a major change in the dynamics inside of Syria: Assad is beholden to Hezbollah, which is now not just doing operations against Israel from its Lebanese base (something that Syrians respected), but is also operating in Syria against Muslims and is seen as an occupying force by some. 

What is more, Hezbollah's vicious fighting has exacerbated sectarian tensions in the region.  Rebels, who are mostly Sunni, have expressed a particular hate for the Shiite Hezbollah fighters.
“We will not forget what Hassan Nasrallah did,” said Abu Zaid, 40, a fighter from Qusayr. “We will take revenge from him and his organization even after 100 years.”

One activist charged Hezbollah with "placing a burden on the shoulders of generations" of Shiites, similar to the burden borne by Germans after their leaders "committed massacres against the Jews."

Many Sunnis in Lebanon, who had had enormous respect for Hezbollah at one time, now consider that Nasrallah's troops have betrayed them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/middleeast/syria.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Not surprisingly, there are reports of some 12 rockets launched at Baalbek, in Lebanon -- almost certainly by rebel Syrian forces.

Rather than slowing down, the war is widening.  It is disconcerting that CNN, citing the Pentagon, says that US intelligence agencies have identified three Russian amphibious warships in the eastern Mediterranean.  It is believed that they are carrying weapons shipments that might be used to resupply the Syrian regime.

~~~~~~~~~~

There has also been fierce fighting today at Quneitra, which is the Syrian city closest to the border with Israel -- actually 70 meters from an IDF post.  Old Quneitra is in the Israeli Golan.  Rebels seized the Quneitra Crossing briefly, but then it was retaken by Assad's troops, who took heavy losses in the battle.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4389000,00.html

~~~~~~~~~~

According to information acquired by Israel Hayom, part of Hezbollah's intentions in establishing a presence in Syria may be to ultimately use the Golan as a base for attacking Israel. 

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=9765

~~~~~~~~~~

Speaking to the Knesset yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered a message (in English, a language they both understand) to putative president of the PA, Mahmoud Abbas:  "Give peace a chance."

To which I say, "Mr. Prime Minister, give us a break already."

Explained Netanyahu:
"We are willing to discuss initiatives that are offers, not dictates,  We are in favor of negotiating without preconditions immediately."

But Abbas has said, "The ball is in Israel's court," referring to the need to freeze building over the Green Line.  (In point of fact, there is no official freeze, but there is one to a large extent de facto.)

And Palestinian Arab negotiator Saeb Erekat declared:

"Of course we want to negotiate. No one benefits from the success of Kerry's efforts more than us...But we want to know the agenda of the talks. We want the Israeli prime minister to utter the word 1967."

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=9795

And there are other demands up front by the PA as well.

So, how long do we keep playing this nonsensical game?

~~~~~~~~~~

As if we didn't have enough reasons already to by-pass the whole "peace process" debacle, here's one more from Khaled Abu Toameh, "Radical Islam Arrives in Ramallah" (emphasis added)

"What happened on Tuesday In Ramallah -- often referred to as the bastion of Palestinian secularism and moderation -- serves as a reminder that radical Islam has found its way to this West Bank city.

"Hundreds of Muslim fundamentalists marched through the streets Tuesday to mark the 92nd anniversary of the fall of the Caliphate.

"The Palestinian Authority, which had in the past cracked down on Hizb-ut-Tahrir [Party of Liberation], the radical organization that led the march, instructed its security forces not to intervene, even as PA spokesmen condemned US Secretary of State John Kerry's efforts to revive peace talks between the Palestinians and Israel.

"Hizb-ut-Tahrir is a radical, Islamist political organization that calls on all Muslims to unify under an Islamic state ruled by Islamic law, Sharia, and a Caliph. The march in Ramallah was organized by members of its Palestinian branch, who, along with their fundamentalist followers, lamented the long-ago decision by the Grand National Assembly in Angora, Turkey, to depose Caliph Abdul Medjid Effendi and abolish the Caliphate."

"...Palestinian Authority officials have not offered an explanation as to why Hizb-ut-Tahrir, whose members are frequently targeted by Palestinian security forces in the West Bank, was given permission to hold a rally in favor of jihad [holy war] against Israel.

"Some Palestinians, however, said that the decision to allow the fundamentalists to hold a rally in Ramallah was aimed at sending a message to Kerry about the challenges and threats facing the Palestinian Authority.

"The Palestinian Authority leadership, according to this theory, is using the Muslim radicals to scare Western donors into continuing, or perhaps increasing, their financial aid to the Palestinian government in the West Bank.

"But at the same time the Palestinian Authority is also shooting itself in the foot. Hizb-ut-Tahrir is an organization that openly despises the Palestinian Authority leaders, dubbing them traitors and collaborators with the enemies of Islam."

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3751/radical-islam-ramallah

~~~~~~~~~~

So, if there's any good news on the "negotiation" front, it's the fact that I'm starting to read that Kerry is getting weary of the non-existent "process" and may turn his attention to other things.  Mazel tov.  I'd say there's more than enough to keep him busy.

~~~~~~~~~~

The not-so-good news has to do with some decisions -- official and unofficial -- by the Obama administration.  Please see Shoshana Bryen of the Jewish Policy Center on this.

Bryen refers to the "leak" of top-secret information about specifications for the heretofore-secret US-Israel installation for Israel's Arrow 3 missiles.  She says it probably was not an accidental leak, but rather an attempt to keep Israel in line.

And then there is the new appointment of Samantha Power to be US ambassador to the UN.  A serious matter that has many people greatly disturbed.

"She was prepared in 2002 to put a major American military presence in the West Bank to safeguard Palestinians from presumed Israeli brutality, and she was openly willing to have the United States force its will on Israel."

http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/4340/it-wasnt-an-accident

~~~~~~~~~~

You might also want to see the ZOA release in opposition to Power's appointment, complete with considerable documentation.

http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=61185

~~~~~~~~~~

E-mail the following members of the coalition re: the projected turnover to the PA of Israeli land in the Jordan Valley.  These are all people who should hear you.  Let them know that this is a time for standing on principle:

Likud-Beitenu
Ofir Akunis -- oakunis@knesset.gov.il
Danny Danon -- ddanon@knesset.gov.il
Ze'ev Elkin -- Zelkin@knesset.gov.il
Yuli Edelstein -- yedelstein@knesset.gov.il
Tzipi Hotovely -- zhotovely@knesset.gov.il
Yisrael Katz -- yiskatz@knesset.gov.il
Uzi Landau -- ulandau@knesset.gov.il
Yariv Levin -- ylevin@knesset.gov.il
Miri Regev -- mregev@knesset.gov.il
Gideon Saar -- gsaar@knesset.gov.il
Yair Shamir -- yshamir@knesset.gov.il
Yuval Steinitz -- ysteinitz@knesset.gov.il

Habayit Hayehudi
Uri Ariel -- uria@knesset.gov.il
Naftali Bennet -- nbenet@knesset.gov.il
Uri Orbach -- uorbach@knesset.gov.il
Ayelet Shaked -- ashaked@knesset.gov.il
Orit Struk -- ostruk@knesset.gov.il

~~~~~~~~~~
 
© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/6/6/june-6-2013-not-acceptable.html

Howard Grief, z"l, passed away yesterday here in Jerusalem.  To those of us who work closely on issues concerning Jewish rights in the land and Jewish sovereignty, he provided not only an enormous amount of historical and legal information, but a perspective. He served as an inspiration because of his tireless dedication, even in the face of severe illness. 

I dedicate this posting to him, so that all who read this should know the debt we owe to him.

~~~~~~~~~~

An international lawyer, born and educated in Montreal, Grief made aliyah in 1989 and served as a legal adviser in international law on matters pertaining to the Land of Israel for the ministry of Professor Yuval Ne'eman, during the administration of Yitzhak Shamir.

As he did his extensive research, Grief developed the thesis that de jure sovereignty over the entire Land of Israel was vested in the Jewish People as a result of the Resolution of the San Remo Conference, adopted in April 1920, which made reference to the Balfour declaration.

He lectured and wrote on this issue extensively, and in 2008 authored his comprehensive treatise, The Legal Foundation and Borders of Israel under International Law.

Here you can see a position paper on the subject he wrote for the Ariel Center for Policy Research:

http://www.acpr.org.il/pp/pp147-grief-E.pdf

And here an enlightening video in which he makes his thesis clear:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF4_hM8kbfc

~~~~~~~~~~

Baruch Dayan HaEmet. Receive our gratitude, Howard Grief, and rest in peace.

~~~~~~~~~~

And here a personal note:

It's been a hard lesson, but I'm learning it: there are only 24 hours in a day.  Right now, as much as I am motivated to write these posts frequently, there are a host of other matters to which I must devote time: a significant project on behalf of Israel, conferences, etc.  And the personal: a bat mitzvah of a granddaughter, visiting with relatives from abroad.

And, not to be forgotten, kaitana savta (Camp Grandma), coming soon, which means grandchildren sleeping here and going on outings with me.  Not only a time I treasure and measure as a great priority, it is an experience that keeps me sane, provides perspective, and strengthens me for the work I do.

And so my friends, know that all is well, but that in the coming weeks my postings are likely to be less frequent than is my norm.  I will post to the best of my ability.

~~~~~~~~~~

The Middle East is on fire:  It goes from awful to horrendous to catastrophic. 

Inside of Syria, the fighting continues with enormous intensity, most notably in the two-week long battle for Qusayr, near the Lebanese border.  Reports there are of 400 killed and 1,000 wounded since the beginning of the battle.  The humanitarian situation is said to be horrendous, with doctors having run out of supplies.

See: http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=61149 scroll down.

Recently Hezbollah's leader Sheikh Nasrallah declared, with regard to battling on behalf of the Syrian troops, particularly in Qusayr: 

"We will continue to the end of the road; we accept this responsibility and will accept all sacrifices and expected consequences of this position."

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4386003,00.html

This was hardly an altruistic position, as Assad's Syria is Nasrallah's lifeline and source of armaments. Qusayr is near the Lebanese border and provides the pathway for the transmission of those armaments. 

Hezbollah reportedly has 11,000 fighters there now.  Qusayr had been in rebel hands, but Assad's troops are attempting to retake the city; there has been no decisive winner as the battle goes back and forth.

~~~~~~~~~~

What is happening, however, is that the presence of Hezbollah in Qusayr has spurred rebel action in Lebanon, in retaliation.

According to the Lebanese National News Agency, on Friday night 16 mortars and rockets were fired from Syria into the Hezbollah Shiite stronghold of Baalbek, a major population center in the Bekaa Valley.

As a result, sectarian Sunni-Shiite tensions inside of Lebanon have also increased.

~~~~~~~~~~

The other day, a spokeswoman for the US State Department said:

"We demand that Hezbollah withdraw its fighters from Syria immediately."

An exercise in powerlessnes.

Obama is still speaking obliquely about arming rebel forces, which likely would have the effect of prolonging and intensifying the war, not ending it.

~~~~~~~~~~  

At the very same time (see the same imra source cited above), Iraq is seeing the worst violence since 2008. A UN envoy describes Iraq as "ready to explode."  During May there were somewhere between 600 and 1,000 deaths (depending on source cited) and well over 1,000 injuries.

While the political issues here are complex, in large measure the violence is the result of growing sectarian tensions -- a seriously disgruntled Sunni minority (which had ruled the country under Saddam Hussein) responding to a Shiite majority and the government.

~~~~~~~~~~

I had cited Dore Gold the other day, in an article about the impending break-down of the borders of Arab states that were arbitrarily drawn after WWI.  And here we see the handwriting on the wall, folks:  Increasing sectarian tensions, Sunni vs. Shiite.  The old borders are, in the end, unlikely to hold them, as Arabs move across those borders to join with others of the same Muslim sect.

We see this tendency in the TV sermon last Friday of cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi in Qatar, who advised Sunnis everywhere to go fight against Assad.  Denouncing Assad's Alawite sect (an offshoot of Shiite Islam) as "more infidel than Christians and Jews," he said that, "Everyone who has the ability and has training to kill ... is required to go."

Declaring that there is no more common ground between Sunnis and Shiites, he charged Shiite Iran with trying to "devour" Sunnis.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4386949,00.html

~~~~~~~~~~

And in Turkey (which is 80% Sunni Muslim but not Arab): Days of exceedingly serious riots, directed at the Islamist government of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.  Protesters clashed with riot police and set fire to buildings belonging to the ruling AK (Justice and Development) party.  Some of the worst violence took place in Istanbul, where demonstrators set up barricades, as well as in other major cities.

The rioting began when government plans were announced for the redevelopment of Istanbul's Taksim Square, which has traditionally served as a rallying point for mass demonstrations,  But it quickly morphed into something a great deal more serious.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4387461,00.html

Credit: Telegraph (UK)

Security is tight as Erdogan blames the riots on "foreign extremists" and calls Twitter a "menace." 

Protests are being voiced about the excessively tough methods employed by Turkish security forces.  Other sources of discontent include limitations on alcohol, the massive Syrian refugee problem, which people believe has not been handled well, and the relationship with the Kurds.

Analysts are not in agreement as to whether this can be seen as the Turkish version of the "Arab Spring."

~~~~~~~~~~

Speculations about delivery of those Russian S-300 missiles to Syria have been enough to make one's head spin:  Some are in Syria already, they're on the way, they are being used as a threat and aren't coming...

What seemed to me most significant as those speculations circulated was a statement by Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, that, should the missiles arrive, "we'll know what to do."  It seemed pretty clear to me that this man was not bluffing: Israel was not about to sit still while Syria took possession of equipment that would not only shift the balance of power with regard to Israel attacks inside of Syria, but would permit the Syrians to hit commercial planes over Ben Gurion Airport. 

It was just a question of when in the process of Syria setting up those missile installations we would hit -- the key factor being taking them out before they were operational.

~~~~~~~~~~

Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered a similar message to Putin when visited Russia last month, saying that the delivery of those missiles “is likely to draw us into a response, and could send the region deteriorating into war.” 

What seems obvious now is that the Russians also understand that Israeli leaders were not bluffing.

Now Ya'alon has told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that, if Russia does decide to deliver those missiles to Russia (something not yet clear), “it will happen only in 2014.”  (Emphasis added)

According to the Russian daily Kommersant, the S-300 missiles would only be delivered in the second quarter of 2014. What is more, they would not become operational for another six months because of required testing and training.

While a Lebanese paper, al-Diyar, reported that Putin has offered Assad other "effective and powerful weapons,”  but obviously not as effective as those S-300 missiles.

And Israeli sources have learned that Syria has only paid one-third of its contract with Russia. “It is not clear to me that the Russians are interested in transferring the weapons. Right now, it’s more of a threat,” said Channel 2′s Ehud Ya’ari, 

http://www.timesofisrael.com/no-s-300-for-syria-this-year-israels-defense-minister-assesses/

OK, then, A signal lesson in being tough and resolute.

~~~~~~~~~~

Ah that Obama and company would learn something from this.

See the comment by Avraham Ben-Zvi that "Obama is no Kennedy":

"Unlike during the Cuban missile crisis, the [Russians have] identified a profound and basic leadership void in Obama's Washington."

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=4533

~~~~~~~~~~

I remain aghast that in the face of all this Mideastern violence and upheaval Sec. of State Kerry remains focused on the "peace process."

But at least our Defense Minister, Moshe Yaalon, see straight.  Yesterday in his briefing before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, he said that:

"The crux of the matter is education in the Palestinian Authority, and if I open a PA textbook and see that Israel doesn't appear on the map, or that Tel Aviv is designated as a settlement, and when a 3-year-old boy is brought up to admire suicide bombers -- you can sign any agreement and in the end it will blow up in your face."

He also spoke about the very real threat of terror coming from Judea and Samaria, which is prevented by the IDF, which has freedom to operate.  The implications of pulling back, then, are glaringly obvious.

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=9725

~~~~~~~~~~

Mahmoud Abbas, who functions as PA president (but is NOT president because his term of office expired in January 2009, and new elections were never held) has now appointed a replacement for Salam Fayyad, who retired as PR prime minister: 

Rami Hamdallah, the British-educated linguist professor and president of an-Najah University, and a man with no political experience or affiliations.  Guess that's one way to quell partisan fighting about which candidate would be best. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Mahmoud Abbas, who functions as PA president (but is NOT president because his term of office expired in January 2009, and new elections were never held) has now appointed a replacement for Salam Fayyad, who retired as PR prime minister: 

Rami Hamdallah, the British-educated linguist professor and president of an-Najah University, and a man with no political experience or affiliations.  Guess that's one way to quell partisan fighting about which candidate would be best. 

A man like this is going to appeal to Western governments, which is likely a key reason for his selection by Abbas, who did not consult the PLO before making his announcement.

One has to wonder what would prompt this man to take such a position and what was said to him behind closed doors.

Barak Ravid opines that "His chances of success are so low that some would say agreeing to take the post is akin to taking a suicide mission."

http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/diplomania/rami-hamdallah-is-a-good-man-on-a-suicide-mission.premium-1.527424

~~~~~~~~~~

A expression of outrage that must be shared:

President Shimon Peres is about to celebrate his 90th birthday with a huge bash.  Outrageous enough, but that's not what's got me here.

Within the same time frame as this event, there will be other events sponsored by the Jewish National Fund (Keren-Kayemet LeYisrael).  Former president Bill Clinton will celebrate with Peres and give a talk on sustainability at the Peres Academic Center in Rehovot, which is where the birthday will be celebrated.  (The precise connection to this event and other JNF events is not clear.)

The Clinton fee for this -- which will go to the Clinton Foundation -- is $500,000. And JNF is paying it!  Got that?

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168511

Are you incensed yet?

JNF, which takes Jewish money ostensibly so that trees can be planted and Israel can be developed, paying Clinton half a million dollars.  JNF defense is that this will promote an increase in activities. And I say, garbage.

I ask, please, that you register your protest to JNF and let them know you're not only angry, but finished donating to them.

Means of contact provided on the website:  customerservice@jnf.org and (888) JNF-0099.

Regional offices can be located here: http://www.jnf.org/about-jnf/in-your-area/.

~~~~~~~~~~

Let's end on a positive note.

"The official PA daily reported on a visit by the PA Minister of Health, Hani Abdeen, to Israel's Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem. The daily noted that 30% of the child patients in Hadassah are Palestinians and that the Israeli hospital is training '60 Palestinian medical interns and specialist physicians who will be returning to the [Palestinian] Authority areas to carry out their work.' The hospital has a special program to train Palestinian doctors to treat cancer among children, reported the PA daily."

http://www.palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=157&doc_id=9049

~~~~~~~~~~
© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

~~~~~~~~~~

Mahmoud Abbas, who functions as PA president (but is NOT president because his term of office expired in January 2009, and new elections were never held) has now appointed a replacement for Salam Fayyad, who retired as PR prime minister: 

Rami Hamdallah, the British-educated linguist professor and president of an-Najah University, and a man with no political experience or affiliations.  Guess that's one way to quell partisan fighting about which candidate would be best. 

A man like this is going to appeal to Western governments, which is likely a key reason for his selection by Abbas, who did not consult the PLO before making his announcement.

One has to wonder what would prompt this man to take such a position and what was said to him behind closed doors.

Barak Ravid opines that "His chances of success are so low that some would say agreeing to take the post is akin to taking a suicide mission."

http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/diplomania/rami-hamdallah-is-a-good-man-on-a-suicide-mission.premium-1.527424

~~~~~~~~~~

A expression of outrage that must be shared:

President Shimon Peres is about to celebrate his 90th birthday with a huge bash.  Outrageous enough, but that's not what's got me here.

Within the same time frame as this event, there will be other events sponsored by the Jewish National Fund (Keren-Kayemet LeYisrael).  Former president Bill Clinton will celebrate with Peres and give a talk on sustainability at the Peres Academic Center in Rehovot, which is where the birthday will be celebrated.  (The precise connection to this event and other JNF events is not clear.)

The Clinton fee for this -- which will go to the Clinton Foundation -- is $500,000. And JNF is paying it!  Got that?

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168511

Are you incensed yet?

JNF, which takes Jewish money ostensibly so that trees can be planted and Israel can be developed, paying Clinton half a million dollars.  JNF defense is that this will promote an increase in activities. And I say, garbage.

I ask, please, that you register your protest to JNF and let them know you're not only angry, but finished donating to them.

Means of contact provided on the website:  customerservice@jnf.org and (888) JNF-0099.

Regional offices can be located here: http://www.jnf.org/about-jnf/in-your-area/.

~~~~~~~~~~

Let's end on a positive note.

"The official PA daily reported on a visit by the PA Minister of Health, Hani Abdeen, to Israel's Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem. The daily noted that 30% of the child patients in Hadassah are Palestinians and that the Israeli hospital is training '60 Palestinian medical interns and specialist physicians who will be returning to the [Palestinian] Authority areas to carry out their work.' The hospital has a special program to train Palestinian doctors to treat cancer among children, reported the PA daily."

http://www.palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=157&doc_id=9049

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/6/3/june-3-2013-a-tribute.html

Ah that I were a mind reader.  But, alas, I am not.  So I garner as much information as I can, and rely on my analysis and my intuition.  Sometimes that's not enough.

Last time I wrote, I alluded to a statement by Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz (Likud), who had  criticized Peres' eagerness for that "two state solution" and his fawning over Abbas.  Peres doesn't speak for the government, he said, and, "every declaration of this sort, certainly on the eve of negotiations, does not help Israel's stance." 

I caught that "on the eve of negotiations," and pointed it out with some unease, but with no certainty about what he was saying.

~~~~~~~~~~

Yesterday, Steinitz had something else to say.  "The government’s position is very clear, and I support it: We do support two states for two peoples..."  he told Times of Israel."

Oh, I see.

He even added that, “We are ready to make painful concessions on two conditions: that there will be peace and security."  That's in spite of the fact, which he conceded, that there are many members of the coalition who are solidly opposed to a "two state solution."

http://www.timesofisrael.com/this-government-is-in-favor-of-two-states-for-two-people/

~~~~~~~~~~

There are those who will see this as a caving of the Netanyahu government -- a sign of some dangerous things to come.  And perhaps they are right.

But I am seeing it differently, and far more tentatively.

First -- and this is purely my own speculation -- I can see Netanyahu having told Steinitz that, after saying that Peres didn't speak for the government, he would have to make a statement that was on behalf of the government.  After all, Peres was in there, tight with Kerry, and embracing Abbas -- which made the US  and the international community more broadly very happy. It wouldn't pay to be too negative and let the world think that Israel was not on board. 

So, Steinitz made his statement, which made headlines.

~~~~~~~~~~

Is Steinitz really ready to see us make "painful concessions" for the right deal?  Does this genuinely represent what Netanyahu wants to see?  That's what I don't know.

But I would like to share Steinitz's full statement, which sheds more than a little light on his position:

"Genuine peace would entail a 'real recognition' of Israel as a Jewish state and the end of all claims and incitement against Israel...Israel’s security requirements include a 'total demilitarization' of a future Palestinian state. Jerusalem would have the right to supervise and control that arrangement in order to be able to prevent arms smuggling or 'any other negative security developments in the West Bank.'" 

Well...

I don't know how we define "real" recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, as versus "fake" recognition, but it's moot, for Abbas won't recognize Israel as the Jewish state in any terms.

End of claims is standard as a criterion for the peace agreement.  But the end of all incitement?  I believe this is a new stipulation.  We're talking about a PA that still teaches its students about jihad and honors terrorists (who, not incidentally, would love to see Israel leave Judea and Samaria so that they might operate more freely).

As to "total demilitarization" (which is not possible, really) we all know that the PLO is not going to go for this.  And then with the further stipulation (which I believe is also new) that the Israeli government supervise and control the arrangements to prevent "negative security developments." In Steinitz's dreams, maybe.  Nowhere else.  Were Israel to "supervise and control," the PLO would not have a sovereign state.

So, he says he's for a state for the Palestinian Arabs -- he's "on board."  But then insists upon parameters that he knows full well would NEVER be accepted. 

This might be called game-playing, and in a way it is.  But I think it's more.  I think he's saying that in an ideal world he would be for two states, and he doesn't want to appear negative in this regard. But because he doesn't trust these guys as far as he can throw them, the stipulations he outlines are essential for Israel's security.

My gut tells me that this is probably Netanyahu's real position.

It's a far cry from Peres' nauseating "you are our partner and we are yours. You share our hopes and efforts for peace."

~~~~~~~~~~

I must comment here on a statement made by head of the Israeli negotiating team Tzipi Livni -- who met with Kerry in Amman earlier this week.

She wants the international community and the Europeans in particular, to pressure Abbas to come to the table.

"It's the only way to have negotiations," she declared at a conference sponsored by The Israel Project.  "[Abbas] needs to know that the Europeans, and the world, they want him to sit in the negotiating room."

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Livni-Abbas-must-be-pressured-to-negotiate-314625

Is Livni so obtuse that she doesn't realize that if Abbas must be forced to "sit in the negotiating room" it means he doesn't want to be there, and thus, will never constructively and sincerely negotiate "peace"?

It certainly appears that "negotiations" have become an end in themselves.

~~~~~~~~~~

Rumors about a proposal for negotiations to be advanced by Kerry abound.  And I will pass over much of what is being said  because it is without verification or documentation.  The PLO's Saeb Erekat declared recently that Kerry was about to announce a "plan."  Maybe. But that's Erekat talking and not a spokesperson for the US State Department.

David Ignatius of the Washington Post says that Kerry is "seeking agreement on basic parameters - the borders for a Palestinian state and an understanding about Israel's security requirements - that would allow negotiations to begin in earnest."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-a-new-road-map-to-middle-east-peace/2013/05/27/b6cbf8ca-c6f5-11e2-9245-773c0123c027_story.html

This is unmitigated nonsense -- simply a sample of what passes for analytic writing but is nothing of the sort.  An agreement on borders BEFORE negotiations have begun?  Understand that "borders" encompasses, in addition to the question of retention of communities past the Green line, the issue of Jerusalem: united, or eastern Jerusalem as the Arab capital.  What Kerry wants, of course, but will not get, is Israeli agreement to use the '67 line, with adjustments, as the basis for negotiations.

~~~~~~~~~~

According to Ignatius, Kerry is also "reanimating" the Arab League "Peace Initiative," Heaven help us.  If Kerry thinks Netanyahu is going to go for this, he's got his head in the stratosphere.  (Never mind: even if Kerry doesn't think Netanyahu will go for this, he has his head in the stratosphere.)

This is Ignatius's logic: 

"The bottom line for Israel is that rather than just a two-state solution, it would get a 22-state solution (the Arab League members) and even a 57-state solution (if you add in the additional Muslim countries in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation)."

Wow! All Israel would have to do for this is return to the dangerous and unjust pre-'67 lines and allow "refugees" to return.  In other words, commit suicide.  And I'm aghast that he imagines the OIC would also go along with this deal.

~~~~~~~~~~

But take a look at what Guy Bechor says about this (emphasis added):

"Who does the Arab League represent? Only the regimes of the Sunni countries, or what's left of them. The Shiite countries - Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon - no longer cooperate with this League. So Israel makes peace with the Sunnis; but what about the others? We must keep in mind that the territory the IDF will withdraw from will be seized immediately by armed Salafis from all across the Arab world – as was the case in Sinai and Syria. Who will come to Israel's aid when it is attacked? The fighters of the 'peace-loving' Arab League?

"Moreover, according to the League's regulations, any amendment to the Arab initiative requires a vote among the heads of the Arab states, or, at the very least, their foreign ministers. But this will never happen, as no Arab leader will ever vote in favor of any such change. This initiative has always been nothing more than a diplomatic whim, and the Arab street will never accept it. Indeed, the Arab media hardly reported on this 'amendment' to the initiative, because it is virtual.

Note: I've been saying there has been no amendment, even though I keep seeing commentators, including Ignatius, who talk as if there has been.  Bechor sets it straight.

See his entire informative piece:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4383848,00.html

Credit: idc

~~~~~~~~~~

I highly recommend this article, "More Peace, Less Process," by Ben Cohen (emphasis added):

"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has already visited the Middle East four times since President Barack Obama named him to the post back in February.  Perhaps anticipating the large number of yawns that such a statistic is likely to produce, Kerry directly addressed, during his latest jaunt, the growing number of peace process skeptics on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian divide.

"'There have been bitter years of disappointment. It is our hope that by being methodical, careful, patient, but detailed and tenacious, we can lay out a path ahead that can conceivably surprise people...'

"However much Kerry would like us to believe that there are routes to peace that haven’t yet been explored, there is a dreary sense of deja vu about his words. Every day, it seems, an American politician declares that time is running out...

"...it’s now 2013, and there is no State of Palestine, only a Palestinian Authority (PA) that shuns direct negotiations in favor of a unilateralist strategy...Moreover, the Palestinians are openly distrustful of U.S. efforts. 'I’m hesitant to say we are seeing a miraculous transformation in American policy and its blind strategic alliance with Israel,' said the PLO’s Hanan Ashrawi upon Kerry’s arrival, conveniently regurgitating the widespread myth in the Arab world that American Middle East policy is determined solely by Israeli imperatives.

"Nor has Palestinian rhetoric changed for the better. The eliminationist desires of the Palestinian leadership—and I’m not talking here about Hamas, but about our ostensible peace partner, the PA—remain as ingrained as ever...

"The traditional approach of American and western negotiators has been to play down this kind of rhetoric as ideological baggage that will disappear once meaningful progress has been made. Time and again, this patronizing, even racist, manner, which treats Arab politicians as tantrum-prone children who say things they don’t really mean, has been proved wrong by events. And yet, the template for peace negotiations has barely been modified during the last 20 years.

"Which is why negotiators at the State Department would be wise to consult an important new paper published by two Israeli academics, Joel Fishman and Kobi Michael, in the academic journal, the Jewish Political Studies Review. Introducing the notion of a 'positive peace,' Fishman and Michael warn against efforts to create a Palestinian state without worrying about its governance and internal political culture...

"Positive peace, the authors assert, is not just the about the absence of war, nor about elevating the right of national self-determination above all other considerations. 'The real problem,' they write, 'is that, long ago, the would-be peacemakers, in their haste and fear of failure, did not frame the problem correctly. They failed to ask the right question. In order to avoid disagreement, they concentrated on process and postponed the substantive issues of content...'

"In the Israeli-Palestinian context, a positive peace entails a complete overhaul of the zero-sum attitude toward Israel that has become institutionalized in Palestinian politics. For decades, the Palestinians have regarded negotiations as simply one of several avenues in pursuing their war on Israel’s existence...

"Fishman and Michael cite the pioneering Israeli scholar Yehoshafat Harkabi’s observation that in Arab discourse, the idea of peace with justice is equivalent to the vision of a Middle East without Israel. And in marked contrast to American worries that time is running out, they point out that as far as the Palestinians are concerned, we’ve got all the time in the world...

"Though they don’t say it explicitly, there is a strong sense in the paper that negotiations that are not preceded by meaningful, internal political reform in the Palestinian entity will share the miserable fate of the Oslo Agreement. And if that’s correct, then the 'path that could conceivably surprise people,' as John Kerry put it, begins not with discussions about settlements, water rights or the size of the Palestinian security forces, but with what the Palestinians themselves believe about the world around them—and whether they are capable of change."

http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/05/28/more-peace-less-process-the-key-to-israeli-palestinian-negotiations/

Credit: stljewishlight

~~~~~~~~~~

You might also like to see a piece -- "Memo to Kerry: It's not the economy, stupid" -- by David Horovitz, which explains the fallacies behind Kerry's $4 billion initiative, which is supposed to come from private business persons but is exceedingly unlikely to appear.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/memo-to-kerry-its-not-the-economy-stupid/

~~~~~~~~~~

In my last posting, I wrote,  "the Russians expected that Israel would refrain from further attacks inside Israel on armaments bound for Hezbollah.."  I believe for almost all of my readers it was clear that I meant attacks inside of Syria, but I do appreciate it when an eagle-eyed reader picks up the error. And so I note it here.

The Syrian situation is deteriorating further and I hope I'll get to that next posting.

~~~~~~~~~~
 
© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/29/may-29-2013-reprise.html

It passes for "diplomatic" news of a sort, but consists in good part of unmitigated nonsense.

The World Economic Forum in Jordan has just ended; in attendance were Israeli President Shimon Peres, Secretary of State John Kerry and putative president of the PA Mahmoud Abbas -- all of whom spoke.

And it was the words of President Peres that caused many here in Israel to want to tear their hair out.  His statement included, first, this:
"...President Abbas, you are our partner and we are yours. You share our hopes and efforts for peace, and we share yours. We can and should make the breakthrough..."

And then, far worse:

"The 'Arab Peace Initiative' is a meaningful change and a strategic opportunity. It replaces the strategies of war with the wisdom of peace."

http://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-shimor-peress-speech-at-the-world-economic-forum/

~~~~~~~~~~

It is essential that I correct Peres here.  As I have already written, there has been no change. A delegation representing the Arab League in Washington conceded the "possibility" of a change, but the entire Arab League did
not sign off on it: 

Arab League head Nabil Elaraby has stated clearly that there have been no amendments to the 2002 plan.

http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=594880

In any event, that change, had it been accepted, would have been miniscule, and would certainly not have represented a "strategic opportunity."  The reference was to "minor" land swaps, with the '49 armistice line still considered the basis for negotiations (and eastern Jerusalem to be Arab), and with insistence upon retention of the "right of return."  It is nothing more than a plan for weakening Israel.

~~~~~~~~~~

That Peres touted it the way he did is particularly disturbing, because the world has the impression that he officially speaks for Israel.  He does not.  His position is largely ceremonial, although that rarely stops him from making inappropriate statements.

(You can see the official description of his office here: http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=61098)

Many government ministers were incensed by Peres' statements.  Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz (Likud) said, before yesterday's Cabinet meeting:

"I didn't know that Peres became the government spokesman.  I think the government has its own spokespeople.  The position of the president of Israel is respected, but the government makes policy decisions, and I think that every declaration of this sort, certainly on the eve of negotiations, does not help Israel's stance."

Credit: TimesofIsrael

Well stated.  But, "on the eve of negotiations"?  Does he know something we do not?

~~~~~~~~~~

Tourism Minister Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beitenu), for his part, alluded to the well-known observation by former foreign minister Abba Eban that the pre-67 lines were "Auschwitz borders." 

Credit: Presstv

He observed that (emphasis added):

"What country would start talks that aim to break down its ability to defend itself? I hear people talking about a Palestinian state that must be established. There's a long list of Arab states that are falling apart -- Syria, Libya, Yemen. The Palestinian Authority, with which we once signed an agreement, split into Judea and Samaria, and Gaza.  Why would we work to create a state with unclear chances of survival?"  (See article below by Dore Gold for much more on this.)

"Whoever wants something serious should stay away from the idea of a Palestinian state."

Amen.

~~~~~~~~~~

While Trade Minister Naftali Bennett (Habayit Hayehudi) said (emphasis added):

"...most of Israel opposes an agreement involving pre-'67 lines and understands that it will lead to Hamas terror reaching the coastal plain and the center of the country.

"The Israeli public, which experienced the results of Oslo -- thousands of deaths -- knows with its healthy judgment that the way to peace and security is through strength and not weakness and withdrawals."

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Steinitz-Peres-doesnt-speak-for-government-314421

Credit: flashtrafficblog

And Amen again.

~~~~~~~~~~

Abbas, for his part, made requisite statements about peace and the readiness of the PA to work for it, but called for the same old freeze on building, release of prisoners, and eastern Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state.  He also made clear that there would be no acceptance of temporary borders or an interim state (which proposals I've discussed recently).

And he added something else here -- taking down the security fence, which he refers to as the "apartheid wall."

http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=61101

~~~~~~~~~~

As to Abbas as a "peace partner," it's instructive to see this Palestinian Media Watch release regarding a PA TV show that called for raising Palestinian flags "at the entrance to every village and town in Palestine to declare that this land is the land of Palestine."   By "Palestine," they mean anywhere between the river and the sea.  This is made obvious by the call for those flags in cities solidly within the Green Line, such as "Jaffa, Nazareth, Haifa, Acre, Lod, and Ramle."

http://palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=157&doc_id=9062

It's important to keep tabs on such declarations, and to share them, so that there is no doubt about what Abbas stands for when he's not double-talking for the West.

~~~~~~~~~~

In fact, let's look at one more indictment of the PA:

Remember Evyatar Borovsky, father of five small children, who was recently knifed to death by Salam Al-Zaghal.  Three days after that horrendous terror attack, Sultan Abu Al-Einein praised it.  Al-Einein?  Formerly an advisor to Abbas, and currently Head of the Palestinian Council for NGO Affairs.

On PA TV, he said:

"We salute the heroic fighter...he went against the settler and killed him. Blessings to the breast that nursed Salam Al-Zaghal."

http://www.palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=157&doc_id=9094

You can see a video of his extended statement on this site.

The blood runs cold at this, and to suggest that Abbas is someone who "shares our hopes" is slightly (if not seriously) obscene.

~~~~~~~~~~

And then there's Kerry, who made his big announcement at the Forum:  A $4 billion economic plan to "revitalize" the Palestinian Authority.  That's not pocket change.  Tony Blair is to head this initiative, about which not much is yet known.  While Kerry envisions enormous growth in the Palestinian Authority, my attitude is far more wait and see.  I suspect he's underestimating the degree of corruption in the PA, and the capacity of its leaders to avoid self-sufficiency.  That's only a start regarding the potential flaws in what he's attempting.

To his credit, Kerry allowed that this economic plan is not a substitute for a "political process." And he stated that the "political process" was his top priority.

You can see Kerry's full remarks, plus some comments by IMRA's Aaron Lerner, here:

http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=61107

~~~~~~~~~~

Two rockets hit in Shiyah, a Shi'ite neighborhood of Beirut, yesterday in what is thought to be an attack on Hezbollah inside of Lebanon by Sunni rebel forces from Syria in retaliation for Hezbollah support of Assad.  It is considered no accident that this happened after Hezbollah head Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah declared intention to keep fighting with Assad to the end.  Lebanon is itself shaky and divided -- with significant Sunni/Shi'ite tensions, and this may signal not only exacerbation of that situation, but the more direct involvement of Lebanon in the Syrian civil war. 

It seems to me significant that the rockets were launched from inside Lebanon.  Hezbollah fighting is fierce in the battle in Qusayr, which is not far from the Lebanese border.

~~~~~~~~~~

Rumors regarding the status of the S-300 missiles Russia is supposed to deliver to Syria have not stopped.  One story had it that Netanyahu, on his visit to Russia, convinced its leaders not to send the missiles.

Yesterday, the Times of Israel ran a story, citing a "senior Israeli official" who denied that this had happened.  However, it was the assessment of this official that ultimately Russia would renege on the deal: "It’s likely that the Russians will try to stall for time and use this as a bargaining chip without following through on the deal."

Two factors seem to play into this assessment.  One is the sizeable Russian Jewish population in Israel.  Russian officials do take into consideration the impact of their policies on this expatriate group.  And Netanyahu, along with National Security advisor Ya'akov Amidror, had impressed upon the Russians the damage that these missiles would be able to do to planes landing and taking off at Ben Gurion Airport.

Deputy Foreign Minister Ze'ev Elkin, who attended the meeting in Russia as a translator, would say only that, “it would be wrong to classify the meeting as a failure."

All of this is reassuring.

The official cited, however, said that the Russians expected that Israel would refrain from further attacks inside Israel on armaments bound for Hezbollah.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-syria-s-300-deal-still-on-senior-israeli-official-says/

~~~~~~~~~~

I find this Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA) briefing -- "Is Egypt Heading toward a Military Regime" -- by Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, to be of particular interest.

Months ago I was advised by one of my Arabic-speaking academic sources that the Egyptian army, which opted to remain quiet for the moment, still wielded some power and might move in due course.  After I had reported on this, there was no apparent sign of this happening, until now...

"Today, Egypt is on the verge of chaos. Amid a sudden popular wave of affection and longing for the Mubarak days, there is renewed talk of the army retaking power. As Morsi’s government fails to achieve true democracy, respect human rights, restore security, or improve economic welfare, an increasing number of people are calling on the army to return to the political scene as Morsi’s only possible replacement. A recent poll found 82 percent supporting such a move."

http://jcpa.org/article/is-egypt-heading-toward-a-military-regime/

This is the best thing that could happen not only for Egypt, but for the sake of Israeli and Western interests as well.  When Mubarak was thrown out, it was thought that movement would be towards a more "democratic" and less repressive regime. But this, of course, is not what happened. 

The military would not only stabilize the situation, acting against radicals, it would introduce a more pro-Western tone. 

~~~~~~~~~~
Far more significant is an article by Dr. Dore Gold, president of the JCPA, who suggests that we are on the cusp of some radical shifts in the Middle East.

During World War I, "Sir Mark Sykes, representing Britain, and Charles Francois Georges-Picot, representing France, reached a secret understanding dividing the...territories of the Ottoman Empire into spheres of influence that would be dominated by [each country]." This is referred to as the Sykes-Picot Agreement. When the League of Nations assigned Mandates after the war, they reflected this agreement:.."the borders of at least five Middle Eastern states would eventually be determined by the original Sykes-Picot Agreement."  These states' borders were "artificial" or arbitrarily drawn for political reasons.

Now, says, Gold, there are serious analysts talking about a breakdown of what had been established a century before, as a result of "the Arab tsunami and its aftershocks."

The focus is particularly on the Syrian-Iraqi border and the possible break-up of Syria.  There is also growing influence of Turkey to be considered -- with Turkey aspiring to regain sovereignty over areas lost with WWI. As well. there is the increased strength of Kurdish groups in Syria, northern Iraq and Turkey -- leading to the establishment in time of Kurdistan.  Ultimately Iraqi could also disintegrate. 

Gold anticipates the possibility of cross-border cooperation of Sunni Muslims. "If they are politically dominated by the same branch of al-Qaida, then the emergence of a new Afghanistan in the heart of the Arab world might be the result. If more moderate forces among the Iraqi Sunnis emerge, then it should not be ruled out that they might consider some federal ties with their western Sunni neighbor, Jordan, which would give them an outlet to the Red Sea."

Writes Gold, "however the political systems in Syria and Iraq evolve, it is clear that the map of the Middle East is likely to be very different from the map that the colonial powers fixed during World War I...It is difficult to exaggerate the importance of this change should it transpire." (Emphasis added)

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=4441

~~~~~~~~~~

Gold observes that:

"The only boundary in the Middle East that Western diplomats have become rigidly obsessed with, despite the far more profound changes that are occurring across the region, is not even formally an international border under international law, but only an armistice line from 1949 -- what is inappropriately called the 1967 border. While a solution to this territorial dispute must be addressed, the final borders drawn between Israel and it's neighbors will have to take into account the current dramatic strategic shifts." (Emphasis added)

As Uzi Landau suggests, above, there is something exceedingly myopic about trying to establish a new Arab state just when other Arab states are falling apart.  We might call it obtuse.  Or dumb.  Certainly a very important reason for not moving to negotiations now.

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/27/may-27-2013-what-is-this.html

There are several items of news requiring attention that can, in one respect or another, knock you off balance. 

But let us start with this indisputable winner, because it will take the time required to read the rest of my post before you get your breath back. 

Most of you probably know that a UK soldier, not in uniform, was killed yesterday on the street in broad daylight by two Islamic terrorists -- both of whom are believed to be native British, and at least one reportedly a convert to Islam -- who then proceeded to behead him with a meat cleaver, while calling “Allahu akbar.”  Eye witnesses described the victim as having been hacked "like a piece of meat."  The terrorists were shot by police, taken to a hospital, and then arrested.

~~~~~~~~~~

Many of the sites I pulled up when searching for data on this referred to a "likely terrorist event," or "what appears to be terrorism."  So tentative, so cautious.

A British security officer said it seemed to be "ideologically motivated." 

You think?

~~~~~~~~~~

Today, British Prime Minister David Cameron said (emphasis added):

"This was not just an attack on Britain and on the British way of life, it was also a betrayal of Islam and of the Muslim communities who give so much to our country..."

http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/UK-PM-Cameron-says-London-attack-was-betrayal-of-Islam-314142

Credit: ccurrentaffairs

~~~~~~~~~~

Now it strikes me that Cameron is just a tad afraid of guys like this.  He did allude to "terrorism," but then he quickly disassociated what happened from Islam.

Well...let me tell you what one of the attackers said (emphasis added):

“We swear by almighty Allah we will never stop fighting you until you leave us alone. Your people will never be safe. The only reason we have done this is because Muslims are dying by British soldiers every day.

“We must fight them as they fight us. An eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth...You people will never be safe. Remove your government, they don’t care about you. Do you think David Cameron is going to get caught in the street when we start busting our guns? Do you think your politicians are going to die?

“No, it’s going to be the average guy like you, and your children. So get rid of them. Tell them to bring our troops back so we, so you can all live in peace.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/10073910/Woolwich-attack-terrorist-proclaimed-an-eye-for-an-eye-after-attack.html

~~~~~~~~~~

These terrorists, reports indicate, speak with a London accent.  But they are of Nigerian heritage.  The "us" is Muslims in Nigeria.  What is clear here is the threat. The threat against the British people generally and against Cameron and the British government specifically.

~~~~~~~~~~

So lets jump to a report from three years ago by American Robert Leiken, author of Europe's Angry Muslims.  In this report for CNN, entitled, "London breeding Islamic terrorists," he writes:

"Since the mid-90s, London has been a haven for foreign jihadi preachers, organizers, agitators and propagandists, many of them recipients of generous welfare benefits.

"'Londonistan' attracted second-generation British Muslims who spurned the folk Islam and customs of their immigrant parents but were repelled by a British culture they regarded as decadent and racist...

"About 100,000 British university students are Muslims. About a quarter of them belong to Islamic Societies, and half of those are active members.

"With the ascendancy of identity politics in Britain, Islamic Societies, rather like African-American student associations of yore, have become the hub of students professing to seek 'social justice.' But their idea of justice is to indict as the world's real terrorists the U.S. and Israel...

"Islamic Society members vary widely. They may be moderate Sufis, apolitical pietists, democratic Islamists, windy radicals or extremists like Abdul Mutallab. Many of them believe that violence is acceptable if their religion is under attack, which is little comfort, because the central plank of radical Islam is that their religion is under attack worldwide...

"But if we begin to point fingers at Britain, we will need two hands. The danger from Britain has its source in nearly every institution in British society: a Parliament that cannot pass counterterrorism legislation, police that do not arrest because evidence is not strong enough to convince a British court, security agencies that do not disclose to the media information about suspects, Islamic organizations that tell Muslims that such silence proves that the suspects have been falsely accused, a press that allows the public to believe such claims, jurors who then hold prosecutors to impossible standards and a once-glorious culture of tolerance that has lost its bearings.

"London has become a fertile field in the jihadi playground, along with Yemen, Pakistan and Somalia.

"Our great friend has allowed herself to become a strategic resource to our common enemies and a liability in the struggle against terrorism."

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/01/04/leiken.abdulmutallab.london/index.html

~~~~~~~~~~

So for Cameron to disassociate this terror attack from Islam is extremely disingenuous.  For him to have cited, as he did, ostensibly "brave" pieties about how in Britain they know how to deal with such attacks by going on with their lives is pathetic.  For he is refusing to grapple with Britain's essential problem.  And in refusing he becomes part of the problem.

London is in a whole lot of trouble.

~~~~~~~~~~

Well, Secretary John Kerry is here, so can peace negotiations be far behind?  Actually, yes...

Credit: JewishJournal

In greeting Kerry today, PM Netanyahu said they would be talking about Syria and Iran...

"But above all, what we want to do is restart the peace talks with the Palestinians.

“It’s something I want, it’s something you want.  It’s something I hope the Palestinians want as well and we ought to be successful for a simple reason: When there’s a will, there's a way."

http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israel-raise-hopes-for-mideast-peace-restart/

I know. This is hard to swallow. But consider how blatant it is.  With Russian rockets in Syria and the possibility of a nuclear Iran sitting on his shoulders, is it remotely plausible that "most of all" he wants to restart peace talks?  This is Netanyahu playing his game, and playing it well enough so that Kerry voiced appreciation for his "seriousness." 

This is what it's about for Netanyahu: appearing serious on the issue before the (very biased) court of world opinion.  He's got to be the good guy, to Abbas's foot-dragging bad guy.  Presumably, there are diplomatic benefits to this, even if negotiations never happen. 

Seems that our chief negotiator, Tzipi Livni, is also playing a game. She was out there today cheerleading for talks with great fervor.  But apparently she didn't count on what her close advisor, Tal Becker, of the Foreign Ministry, would tell Maariv :

He doesn't believe an agreement with the Palestinian Arabs will be possible for several years.  In his opinion, this is the fault of Abbas,  who is "not enthusiastic about returning to talks" and is "unwilling to pay the political price" for entering into serious negotiations.

Most likely, folks, there you have it.  Kerry is still mum on what various innovative plans he has brought with him to "jump start" the talks.

~~~~~~~~~~

Yesterday I wrote about the difficulty of assessing Netanyahu's true intentions -- the quote above being yet another case in point.  There is one matter on which he is taking a proper stand that I didn't mention in the course of that discussion and would like to return to now.

On May 16, I wrote about the decision of the government to attempt to apply legal status to four communities that had been considered "unauthorized."  You can see details of the situation here:.

 http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/16/may-16-2013-dead-serious.html

There is no question but that the fact that Moshe Ya'alon is now defense minister has a good deal to do with this government position, yet it is impossible to believe that this situation would have taken shape as it has if the prime minister had not signed off on it.

According to Times of Israel, Kerry contacted Netanyahu on this directly and protested.  This interferes with his "peace plans" you see -- because Israel is supposed to be giving up (Heaven forbid) Judea and Samaria, not legalizing additional communities. The American Embassy in Tel Aviv also came out with a statement regarding the fact that this action was not constructive for peace.

There has been no stalling, however, no backing down, on the part of the Israeli government that I have been able to discover.  Yesterday, representatives for the state had to appear at the High Court to answer the petition of Peace Now regarding the need to take down those four unauthorized communities.  The state presented its position as previously outlined.  The Court has not yet ruled. 

There is however, concern about what went on in the courtroom:

For the very first time ever (Peace Now chair Yariv Oppenheimer said it's something he's never seen in all his years of petitioning the court on this issue), a representative of the US Embassy, Andrew Shut, attended the court session.  Legally, he is within his rights to do so, but there is the suggestion of impropriety.

Nachi Eyal, Director of the Legal Forum for Israel protested that:

"..the very presence of a diplomat in a legal debate about internal matters of the State of Israel" aims to exert pressure and influence the judges’ decision.

“I think there is unhealthy and inappropriate intervention here on the part of the United States. What do the Americans want there? Do they want the judges to see that [the Americans] are there to oversee them?"

http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-pressures-israel-with-diplomats-presence-at-settlement-trial/

This sure sent my blood pressure up. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Syria.  The situation remains exceedingly volatile.  Reports have come through that the Russian S-300 missiles may be on their way to Syria very soon -- but no one is talking and this cannot be confirmed.  A very, very troublesome possibility.

In the town of Qusayr, a major battle has been waging for days, with outcome still uncertain.  Both sides are claiming imminent victory and are receiving reinforcements.  There is no question but that Iranians and members of Hezbollah are in the midst of the fight, alongside the forces of Assad. This town has been in rebel hands for some time, and Syrian troops are attempting to regain control there.  The significance of this battle is that Assad's control of the town would clear the way for a direct line into Lebanon for transferring weapons to Hezbollah. 

Syria's national television reported on Tuesday that Abu Omar, a top commander with the jihadist al-Nusra Front, was killed in battle in Qusayr.

Top Israeli military personnel have warned Assad that he will be responsible if he escalates the situation with Israel.  And there have been warnings, as well, on the part of Israeli military regarding the fact that matters could seriously heat up at any point.  We here in Israel are sitting on the edge...

~~~~~~~~~~

In a turn-around of its previous position, German intelligence now believes Assad will hold out.  You can see the assessment here:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/german-intelligence-believes-assad-regime-regaining-lost-power-a-901188.html

~~~~~~~~~~

One man who does not think it is a good thing is Ephraim Inbar, Director of the BESA Center.  His concern is in breaking the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis.

I am not alone in my anguished conclusion (acknowledging that there is no good answer) that better Assad than the jihadist world-domination maniacs who would likely take over if Assad fell.  But in the interests of presenting a balanced picture, I share here the link to Inbar's piece on the issue:

http://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israels-interests-in-syria/

~~~~~~~~~~

And then, in closing, a thoughtful piece by Aaron David Miller, "The Myth of the Arab State" (emphasis added):

"From North Africa to the Levant, a process of state decentralization, perhaps even fragmentation, is underway that will have negative consequences for American interests, and there may be very little the U.S. can do about it.

"The three elements required for democratic life in any form simply aren't evident in the Arab world: leaders who rise above sectarian, religious and ethnic affiliations and govern in the best interests of the nation as a whole; institutions that are deemed authoritative, legitimate and inclusive and not mere playthings in the elites' struggle for power; and an accommodative process that contains and manages even the bitterest of debates without spilling over into violence or political pressures that paralyze national life."

http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-myth-the-arab-state-8494

~~~~~~~~~~     

Miller does not deal in any serious way with the historical background to these Arab states, which were, in some considerable measure, established by the Western powers by drawing arbitrary border lines for political reasons and without regard to internal cohesiveness.  Nor does he talk about Islam as potentially a destabilizing factor in this situation.

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/23/may-23-2013-what-comes-first.html

The notion that there can be a viable negotiation process that will result in peace with "two states side-by-side" persists whatever the overwhelming evidence to the contrary.  And so, no matter how weary we become of the delusion, we must continue to track efforts to make it happen, and combat it as effectively as possible.

As I wrote yesterday, Sec. of State Kerry is due here tomorrow.  And so there is a flurry of activity -- or, more accurately, perhaps, a deluge of words espousing one position or another -- in anticipation of his arrival.

What we have most notably are the words of Minister of Finance Yair Lapid (head of Yesh Atid), who gave an interview to the NYTimes, on Monday in which he declared that he would do everything he can to advance the discourse on peace:

“Israelis want peace and security and Palestinians want peace and justice – these are two very different things, and this is the real gap we have to close."

~~~~~~~~~~

Let's pause here, to consider this statement.  The Palestinian Arabs do NOT want peace and justice.  They want the destruction of Israel.  The failure to grapple with this reality is at the heart of the position of those who continue to push for negotiations. 

As to "justice": A very basic misconception -- which has been fueled by PLO lies -- is that the Palestinian Arabs are entitled to the land beyond the '67 line, and that "justice" requires our giving it to them.  They have no moral or legal or historical basis for this claim.  The land is Jewish -- as history and legal documentation make clear.
See here for more: http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/336554365346/

~~~~~~~~~~

Actually, when it comes to "justice," the question I would like to pose to "two-state" advocates is why they imagine the Palestinian Arabs deserve a state within any parameters.  There are probably thousands of ethnic groups -- groups with legitimate historical reality and distinct cultural traits -- who are without their own state.  And yet the world does not clamor to give them sovereignty over the land on which they live. 

What have the Palestinian Arabs done, even, remotely, to merit that sovereignty?  What would a "Palestinian state" contribute in a positive way to the family of nations?  What have the Palestinian Arabs done to develop a positive, constructive civil society that would form the basis of that state?  Their failure in this regard is all the more striking because they have received so much international support and such huge international funding.

~~~~~~~~~~

At any rate...

Lapid is far too left for my taste.  At a Yesh Atid faction meeting, he declared, "Whoever thinks we can have peace without a two-state solution is mistaken."  In fashioning the negotiations as some sort of moral imperative -- “even if it’s controversial here, and even if it is hard to trust the Palestinians.” -- I believe he is the one who is badly and dangerously mistaken.

But to certain other members of his party, and to Tzipi Livni, he is not left enough. For he came out in the interview for an undivided Jerusalem:

"We didn't come here for nothing...Jerusalem is not a place; Jerusalem is an idea...Jerusalem is the capital of Israel."

What is more, he opposes changes in "settlement" policy and supports their natural expansion.

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Lapid-backs-talks-even-if-hard-to-trust-Palestinians-313779

~~~~~~~~~~

But let me not inadvertently lend the impression that the government is solidly for that "two-state solution."  There are many within the coalition who are opposed to the formation of a Palestinian state.  This is certainly true of Habayit Hayehudi, headed by Naftali Bennett, and including members such as Uri Ariel and  Urit Struck.  Just yesterday, Struck, pictured below, declared, "Two states for two nations is not the official government position.  It's not in the coalition guidelines..."  (Emphasis added)

Credit: JPost

It is also so within Likud -- Tzipi Hotovely, Danny Danon, Ze'ev Elkin (who is now a deputy foreign minister), Ofir Akunis (who advanced legislation requiring a referendum for a deal), Gideon Sa'ar, Miri Regev, Yariv Levin, and others oppose that state. 

And within Yisrael Beitenu -- Uzi Landau, Yair Shamir (son of former prime minister Yitzhak Shamir), etc.

Avidgor Lieberman, head of Yisrael Beitenu and currently chair of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, once supported the "two-state" concept.  But he said at a committee meeting yesterday that Abbas has lost his legitimacy, and that it is impossible to solve the conflict now -- it can only be managed.

Credit: Forward

"There's no magic solution to the conflict with the Palestinians.  Why are foreign ministers always here?  Why are they so obsessed with the Palestinian issue?" (emphasis added)

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Livni-PA-must-know-peace-talks-are-the-only-game-in-town-313811

Lieberman's questions are good ones.

~~~~~~~~~~

About the prime minister himself, I will simply say this now.  It is his MO to "play the game," something I've written about often enough.  It is not his style to cross the Americans confrontationally for the most part.  This can be dangerous, as it leads him down a slippery slope, and he may (inadvertently?) set precedents that will be regretted later.

And yet, it remains important not to assume that in playing that game he is necessary stating his true intentions.  I'd be a millionaire many times over if I knew what his true intentions were. (I was told by one analyst yesterday that probably Netanyahu's closest advisors don't know his true intentions.) And so I reject rumors that are afloat -- as they were bound to be -- suggesting that he has caved; while they might contain some kernel of truth, they are based on no documentation that I am aware of.

I cringe at some of the things that he says, I recognize that sometimes he talks tough but doesn't follow through, and yet, I am mindful, for example, that he came out in support of a referendum on a "peace deal."  At that time it occurred to me that he might see this as an out: "Gee, I was really for this, but the electorate is not in favor." 

And he is holding out for parameters for that Palestinian state that he knows full well will never be accepted on the other side. I do not think he trusts the Palestinian Arabs or believes they would negotiate in good faith -- and in this respect differs substantially from Tzipi Livni.  (Yes, I fully recognize that, infuriatingly, he appointed her to head negotiations; but he also appointed the tough, right wing Elkin as deputy foreign minister -- at a time when Lieberman is absent and there is no real foreign minister.  So, go figure.) 

My last thought here is that he is under the most incredible pressure right now, with regard to Syria, Russia, Iran and more.  Tough decisions have to be made concerning when to hit armaments, even armaments from Russia, in Syria and when and if to hit Iran.  I see him doing a very credible job in this respect, at least to date, and wonder if it's appropriate -- not to turn a blind eye, but -- to cut him a bit of slack with regard to criticizing his policies on "peace negotiations." 

Unless we know all of the parameters -- and we most certainly do not -- there is no way for us to know if he is taking a stance supportive of Obama with the understanding or the hope that there's a quid pro quo in terms of Obama's support for us if we hit Iran.  All speculative, I realize. But not entirely irrelevant. It may seem to him like a very unwise time to directly confront Obama, and I'm not sure he'd be wrong. 

(Rest assured, if Netanyahu -- please, may he not -- were to take a stance that is outrageous, I'd be raising my voice, figuratively, his need to make decisions on Iran not withstanding.)

~~~~~~~~~~ 

Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ya'alon have already decided on one "good will gesture" before Kerry's arrival:  The territorial limit into the Mediterranean for Arab fisherman from Gaza has been increased to six miles.  In March, Ya'alon had cut the limit back to three miles after 14 rockets had been launched from Gaza.  (The three-mile limit had been imposed after the Cast Lead operation in 2009, was increased as part of the ceasefire following the last operation, Pillar of Defense, and then was cut back again in March.)

I'm really not fond of these "gestures," in particular when they involve removing checkpoints or otherwise loosening security.  But our government acts as if they are expected, and in this instance I'm not aware of risks to Israel incurred. 

~~~~~~~~~~ 

There are a couple of positions vis-a-vis the formation of a Palestinian state that require a closer look. 

One such position states that even though Judea and Samaria and eastern Jerusalem are all Jewish -- legally and historically -- once we document this fact, we ought to show our willingness to act for peace by surrendering it to the Arabs.  Livni says something like this, and Max Singer, of the Hudson Institute, just wrote a column on this notion in last week's JPost Magazine.

This very perverse position makes me want to tear my hair out.  Who but Jews would ever espouse such a stance:  Oh, I can prove it's mine, incontrovertibly, but to keep matters quiet, to be nice, I will give it away.  What's ours is ours.  And it ought to be retained by us.  Especially as what would be surrendered would be the very heart of the Jewish heritage.  This would speak to a lack of national pride.

This need to please, to make sacrifices, to step back instead of defending our rights -- this, I firmly believe, is the legacy of 2,000 years in galut (diaspora).  And it's not a healthy attitude. What is more, in demonstrating such a position we would be seen as weak by the Arabs and the gesture would not bring peace in any event.

~~~~~~~~~~

Then there is the even more horrendous notion just advanced by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, who proposed it in a talk on Friday at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC: first create a Palestinian state, and then make peace. Peace, he suggested, must be made between two equal states negotiating with each other.

I would remind him that the whole purpose of proposing a Palestinian state was to bring peace, within a "land for peace" concept.  It turned out to be a failed concept.  But what he's suggesting here is having Israel surrender land without securing peace.  Even far leftists here in Israel understand that there would be establishment of a Palestinian state only with an "end of conflict" agreement.

~~~~~~~~~~

A slightly less horrific version of what Erdogan has suggested has come from Israeli politicians, including, most recently, Lapid:  That is, create an "interim" Palestinian state with "temporary borders" until all issues can be resolved.  Lapid proposed a three year time frame for determining permanent borders.  The idea is to give the Palestinian Arabs something, to move past the status quo.  But it's a non-starter.

Suppose all issues cannot be resolved, in three years or in 10, and we've already given them some sort of state.  If all issues are not resolved, they'll claim the "right" to "resistance." 

The Palestinian Arabs will never go for this -- out of concern that all they'd ever get in the end would be those "temporary" borders. Their position is just the reverse. Before negotiations are even begun, they want Israel to acknowledge the '67 line as the basis for those negotiations.

Lapid has called upon President Obama -- whose administration is seeking new approaches -- to endorse this idea.  Lapid, however, also calls for Obama to endorse former president Bush's position of 2004, recognizing that some settlement blocs would be retained by Israel.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-calls-for-interim-peace-deal-with-palestinians/

~~~~~~~~~~

I believe I've mentioned this before, but with Kerry's arrival imminent, I wanted to point out again that the so-called Arab League Peace Plan has not been modified -- in spite of wide-spread impressions to the contrary. 

A League delegation, which was in Washington a few weeks ago to negotiate changes in the plan, said that it might be possible to amend it so that "minor" land swaps would be instituted.  But that suggestion then had to pass muster with the full League, and it did not.

Arab League head Nabil Elaraby has stated clearly that there have been no amendments to the 2002 plan.

http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=594880

~~~~~~~~~~

And so, if you read something that suggests that Israel should be more forthcoming because now the Arabs have "moderated" their plan -- reject it out of hand. For, there has been no modification. 

But even if there had been, it would have been such a minor modification that the entire plan -- which was presented on a "take it or leave it" basis and included "right of return" -- was still not anything for Israel to remotely consider.

~~~~~~~~~~

I will mention here that this is not the first time that the Arabs have lent the impression that they have modified a document, when in reality they have not. The most notable example: Arafat's widely accepted claim that he was removing clauses calling for Israel's destruction from the PLO charter. They're still there.

~~~~~~~~~~

And the latest word from our "peace partner"?  On Monday, PLO negotiator Saeb Erekat, told a UN committee:

"Today in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem ... I can sum up the situation with one word - apartheid. Worse than that which existed in South Africa." (emphasis added)

This is not even a subtle misrepresentation, it is a bold lie -- and very typical of what we see from the PLO/PA. Does he really think anyone believes this?  In eastern Jerusalem (there is no "East Jerusalem"), live some 250,000 Arabs.  They have residency cards, are provided full rights and can move about all of the city -- in stores, restaurants, hospitals, etc. -- with no prohibitions and no danger.  Some apartheid.

Replied Israeli Ambassador to the UN Ron Prosor, "The more the Palestinians continue to fertilize the soil with hatred toward Israel, the smaller the chances that the seeds of peace in the Middle East will sprout roots."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168204

~~~~~~~~~~ 

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/22/may-22-2013-peace-process.html

There are multiple ways in which enormous strength is required of the Israeli government now.  In no situation is this more the case than with regard to Syria and armaments shipped there, either for use by Syria or for transfer to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The situation is rife with threats, claims, charges, counter-charges, and rumors.

What seems to be the case is that Russia recently shipped its Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria.  And this is bad news: 

The JPost has cited Nick Brown, editor of IHS Jane's International Defense Review, who said, "They fly at just over 2.5 times the speed of sound, have a range of about 300 kilometers (185 miles) and pack a huge punch from their 200 kg (440 pound) warhead."

"They are hard to detect and ever harder to shoot down or decoy away, so they're a powerful tool for keeping warships a long way off the Syrian shore."

Russia had previously supplied Assad with Yakhont missiles in 2011, but they were an earlier, less accurate model.

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/US-Russian-missiles-to-Syria-could-embolden-Assad-313518

Credit: Oratert

~~~~~~~~~~

A big question that hangs over this is whether Syria will attempt to transfer those Yakhont missiles to Hezbollah, which could use them to threaten Israeli ships and the Israeli gas fields in the Mediterranean -- which would just about be in reach. 

It is exceedingly unlikely that Israel would sit still for such a transfer of weaponry.  Last Thursday night, CIA chief John Brennan flew into Israel unannounced to consult with Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon about the escalating situation in Syria.  Ya'alon made it clear that Israel had no intention of allowing advanced weapons to reach Hezbollah.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/cia-chief-pays-surprise-visit-to-israel/

Last Friday, the Wall Street Journal cited US officials who said they anticipated another series of Israeli strikes in Syria, against these missiles.

~~~~~~~~~~

On Sunday, the Times of London reported that Syria had trained sophisticated Tishreen missiles on Tel Aviv, which would be used if Israel entered Syrian air space again.  It said that satellite images indicated this, but provided no source.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-training-advanced-missiles-on-tel-aviv-report/

At the Sunday Cabinet meeting, PM Netanyahu, refusing to be intimidated by this report, responded that:

"The Israeli government is acting in a responsible and measured way in order to secure the safety of Israel's citizens and prevent advanced weapons from reaching Hezbollah and the terror organizations. We will know how to do this in the future as well.

"The Middle East is experiencing one of its most sensitive periods in decades. We are following developments closely and are readying for any scenario."

~~~~~~~~~~

It's not possible to consider the current situation in Syria without looking at the role of the US -- or, more correctly, the US's failure to play a decisive role at a critical earlier point in the Syrian civil war -- as a factor in what's going on.  The vacuum left by American inaction has permitted Russia to move more vigorously in this region. 

The Russians, who want to be able to call the shots here, have even sent in warships.  Five entered the Mediterranean last Wednesday, when the Russian foreign minister announced:

"The Russian Defense Ministry started setting up a special force of warships in the Mediterranean in order to protect Russia's interests in the region." 

Yesterday, two additional Russian warships were brought in from its Black Sea fleet.

~~~~~~~~~~

US officials are concerned now that Russian shipments of armaments to Assad will allow him to prolong the war.  But I was stuck by how clueless the Americans are when I read this comment by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez.

"We can watch from the sidelines as the scales are tipped in Assad's favor, or protect US national interests by supporting the armed opposition striving to build a new Syrian future."

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/US-Russian-missiles-to-Syria-could-embolden-Assad-313518

"a new Syrian future," huh?  This might have been true a year or 18 months ago. But now there are reports of Iraqi al-Qaeda forces over-taking other rebel forces in Syria.  The Nusra Front was already Islamist, but is being splintered by the al-Qaeda forces that have a larger anti-Western, jihad, greater Islamic nation agenda.

Were the US to supply rebels with weapons, they might well end up in al-Qaeda hands.

Israel cannot say this -- is taking great care not to say this -- but me?  I'm hoping Assad, as vile and immoral as he is, does not fall.  For the very likely alternative is worse for this entire region.

Writes Reuters:

"... if the West were to intervene, it may now be under pressure to attack al-Qaeda opposition forces rather than Assad."

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Syrias-Nusra-Front-eclipsed-by-Iraq-based-al-Qaida-313501

~~~~~~~~~~

At the same time, rumors that Russia had already sent S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria have not been confirmed.  In fact, while Russia is saying that it must honor its previously signed contract to deliver them, it is not at all certain that this will happen.

Former head of IDF military intelligence Amos Yadlin is one of the analysts who is not convinced that Moscow will actually deliver the missile batteries..."in Yadlin’s assessment, the S-300s are just one piece in the complex face-off over Syria now playing out between Moscow and Washington."

http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-knows-exactly-what-the-fuss-is-about/

It is enormously irksome, when Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claims that there's no problem because the S-300 is a defensive weapon, implying that Israel just has to stop attacking and all will be fine.  He knows very well indeed that Israel attacks are not against Syria, but against the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah and are thus defensive in nature.  He is, indeed, enormously disingenuous.

There is no way that Israel will permit the transfer of S-300 missiles, should they arrive in Syria, to be transferred to Hezbollah. They would, I imagine, have to be hit before installation was complete.

~~~~~~~~~~

Please see what Shoshana Bryen, of the Jewish Policy Center, has to say about this situation.

While referring to Putin's "disdain for the Obama Administration" (her description of Putin's treatment of Kerry makes fascinating reading), and saying that "neither Secretary of State Kerry nor the president he serves seem to understand Russia's goals in the region, and thus neither is prepared to uphold our own interests," in the end she believes Russia's policies are shortsighted and will fail.  Putin, she says, has taken on the impossible task of controlling the Shiite-Sunni fighting.

Her vision is sharp and broad.

http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/4286/russia-playing-a-losing-hand-like-a-winner

~~~~~~~~~

One last mention of Syria here:  Last night, IDF soldiers patrolling near the border with Syria in the Golan were fired upon.  A vehicle was damaged, but no one was hurt.  The IDF issued a statement that "IDF forces returned precise fire at the source of the gunfire. They reported a direct hit."  The Syrian army had claimed that it destroyed the IDF military vehicle and everything in it.

"We will not remain silent regarding fire from Syria at our territory," said Defense Minister Yaalon.

~~~~~~~~~~

And then a correction: In my last posting, I had cited an article by Avigdor Haselkorn on the war over preemption.  In it, he spoke about the fact that Iran is trying to get Fateh 110 missiles into Hezbollah's hands because this would "deter Israel from launching a preemptive strike on its nuclear facilities by holding hostage Israel’s Dimona reactor as well as other strategic installations."

Well, it has been pointed out to me (and for this many thanks to Jeff D.) that the Fateh missiles have a range of 300 kilometers, but from where those missiles would be launched to Dimona is well over 300 km.  I never would have caught that.  Haselkorn's piece still has considerable validity, but I am eager to set the record straight here.

~~~~~~~~~~

I had hoped to address the other matter in which Israel requires strength:  Kerry is coming on Thursday to move forward that ever elusive "peace process," and there is much to say about the political dynamics this issue engenders.  But not today -- this posting is long enough.  Hopefully, this will be my key focus when next I write.

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/21/may-21-2013-strong-for-all-things.html

The NYTimes ran a piece yesterday in which it directly quoted a "senior Israeli official" -- who according to the JPost had contacted the Times (emphasis added):
 
"Israel is determined to continue to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah.  The transfer of such weapons to Hezbollah will destabilize and endanger the entire region.
 
"If  Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies, he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate."
 
http://www.jpost.com/Defense/If-Assad-reacts-to-Syria-strike-Israel-will-retaliate-313265
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
There was no response to this report from the prime minister's office, but I will tell you that these are not just idle words: Israel's government is absolutely determined to prevent sophisticated, game-changing weapons from reaching Hezbollah.  The official hinted that more strikes such as the ones we (presumably) just saw may be in the planning.
 
Author Avigdor Haselkorn, writing in the JPost today, in "The war over preemption," has provided one of the clearest explanations I've seen yet as to the dynamics involved -- and why Israel ain't just foolin' here (emphasis is added):
 
Hezbollah -- allegedly already in possession of some 50,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching Israeli population centers -- does not need more of the same to hit Israeli cities, says Haselkorn.
 
"The solid-fuel, highly accurate, long-range (300 km) Fateh-110 missiles, armed with half-ton warheads, which was reportedly targeted by the IAF in the latest strike in Syria were not meant to attack Israeli cities. The Fateh-110 is a counter-force weapon designed to attack high value, pinpoint military and strategic targets. Indeed, it is all but certain that the provision of such missiles by Iran to Hezbollah is another step in the undeclared Israeli- Iranian war over preemption already underway.
 
"...by equipping Hezbollah with the latest version of Fateh-110 – the MOD 4 – Iran is hoping to accomplish three strategic goals: First, to deter Israel from launching a preemptive strike on its nuclear facilities by holding hostage Israel’s Dimona reactor as well as other strategic installations identified in the foreign press as housing the Israeli nuclear arsenal and/or its delivery platforms...
 
"As well, Tehran is signaling Washington that any thought of a surgical strike on Iranian facilities is a dangerous hallucination as the outcome would be a nuclear catastrophe in the Middle East, given Iran’s ability to accurately attack Israeli nuclear installations via Hezbollah’s upgraded missiles...
 
"Second, by providing its Lebanese proxies with highly accurate missiles the Iranians are attempting to turn the tables on Israel – they are developing their own capability to launch a preemptive strike against Israeli strategic facilities. Iranian leaders have already threatened to undertake such action...
 
"Third, by boosting Hezbollah’s stock of highly accurate missiles Tehran is seeking to enable its proxy to launch heavier salvos, perhaps in conjunction with the Syrian-provided Scud-D missiles reportedly already in Hezbollah’s arsenal. The aim is to assure hits on key strategic targets despite Israel’s missile defenses. Clearly, irrespective of its pooh-poohing of its capabilities, Tehran is worried by the recent stellar performance of the Iron Dome system.

"The bottom line is that Iran is laboring hard to prevent an Israeli preemption while developing its own option – via Hezbollah – of launching a preemptive attack on Israel’s most vital strategic assets.
 
"It should be noted that the Iranian effort is being pursued despite repeated Israeli warnings and forceful action to stop it. Some in Israel have interpreted this Iranian determination as forced by growing fears of the mullahs and their Hezbollah brethren that...they will not be able to make use of the Tehran-Damascus-Beirut corridor much longer to transport arms and fighters. However, a more important reason is Iran’s fear of an imminent Israeli preemptive attack. In spite of Iran’s public ridicule, it appears it views with mounting concern Israeli statements that 2013 would be a year of decision.

"For its part, Israel, by acting to destroy new additions to Hezbollah’s counter-force capabilities and the means to defend them...signaled its determination to keep its preemptive option open. Further, the operational successes of the IDF’s recent military undertakings in Syria communicate to Tehran the credibility of Israel’s intentions and capabilities in this regard. Thus, as long it races toward the bomb, Iran is likely to persist if not escalate its efforts to block and/or counter the Israeli preemptive option.

"The ongoing conflict over preemption has produced two paradoxes. First, even before any military strike had been unleashed against a nuclear facility, armed conflict has erupted. The Israeli threat to use force as a last resort to stop Iran’s nuclear march had the effect of forcing Jerusalem to exert its military muscle without delay, ostensibly to preserve the final option..."
 
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-Ed-Contributors/The-war-over-preemption-313261
 
So it's going to get tougher before it's over, but in point of fact, Israel is already at war with Iran.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu took action of another sort in an attempt to prevent an escalation of the situation in Syria with a potential shift in the balance of power:  On Tuesday morning he flew to the Black Sea city of Sochi to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with regard to the announced intention of Russia to sell state-of-the-art anti-aircraft S-300 missiles to Damascus.
 
Netanyahu was accompanied by National Security Council Head Ya'akov Amidror, Head of Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi, and Deputy Foreign Minister Ze'ev Elkin, a native Russian speaker.  Press was not permitted to participate.  Kochavi is believed to have provided Putin with intelligence regarding the situation in Russia.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
All we have from that meeting is a joint press conference during which they declared their intention to keep in touch, both personally and between special services.

Credit: alarabiya
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
As for Putin, it is clear -- and this is hardly new -- that he is motivated at least in part by a desire to subvert Western, and particularly, American involvement in the area.  We might say that he gave the old one-two to Obama with the announcement of intention to sell those missiles, which followed almost immediately an announcement about Russia and the US working together to address the crisis in Syria:
 
Last week Moscow and Washington had announced an agreement to facilitate political dialogue between the Assad regime and rebels, and to facilitate an international conference on Syria. 
 
(A reflection of the tenuous relationship between Russia and the US can be found in the arrest on Tuesday by the Russians of CIA agent Ryan Christopher Fogle, who was working in the American Embassy in Moscow and was caught in a sting operation when trying to recruit Russian double-agents.)
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
The placement of those anti-aircraft missiles in Syrian hands would be no small matter for Israel, and worse still should they be transferred to Hezbollah.
 
I have picked up reports -- unconfirmed, for example from  Al-Quds Al-Arabi  -- that the missiles may already be in Syria.  In one version, it was said that only Russian technicians were managing them, in another, there was indication that Syrian technicians were already trained.   
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
For the first time this morning, mortar shells fired from Syria hit Mount Hermon in the Golan.  There were no casualties. 
 

Credit: Greenprophet

And, for the first time it is clear that the mortars didn't cross the border with Syria accidentally, during the course of fighting between Assad's troops and rebels. 
 
This time, a group by the name of (are you ready?) Shahid Brigades of the Abd al-Kajr al-Husseini Jihad Brigades which is part of the "Free Palestine Movement" took credit via a video it released.  It said that the mortars were fired for "Nakba Day," which was just observed by Palestinian Arabs as a day of mourning that marks Israel's founding.: "We tell the Zionists that we are opening a campaign of revenge.”"
 
I have no information about the source of fire being identified and destroyed.  IDF patrols in the area have increased and the IDF is now re-evaluating the earlier determination that the other mortars hit Israeli soil by accident.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
It was announced just days ago that the Civil Administration (which means the administration of Judea and Samaria that works under the Ministry of Defense) was working diligently to establish a new Palestinian Arab city near Jericho, reportedly to be called Nu'aimah, which would house tens of thousands of residents and require the transfer of almost 2,000 dunam (500 acres) of land from the Jordan Valley Regional Council to the PA for the project.
 
The Yesha Council responded to this insanity immediately:
 
"The state of Israel is advancing programs for thousands of dwelling units in Area C [which is under full Israeli control] while there are wide sections of Areas A and B [under full and partial PA control] where they can be settled and they are stopping the tenders for building for Israeli settlement in Area C."
 
Before I had the opportunity to write about this, came the announcement that Minister of Defense Moshe Ya'alon has frozen the project.  According to Israel National News:
"MK Motti Yogev (Bayit Yehudi), who heads a subcommittee of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee which deals with issues pertaining to Judea and Samaria, contacted Yaalon...asking for details about the project. According to Ma’ariv, Yaalon told Yogev that upon learning of the plan he ordered that it be immediately stopped.

"An Israeli defense official confirmed the details, telling Ma’ariv that the Defense Minister is interested in learning the details of the plan and any consequences that may result from its application, and has asked that it be delayed until he can formulate a position on the issue."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168021

Well then, a small sigh of relief and a tentative "bravo" to Minister Ya'alon.  Now we'll have to wait to see what position he formulates.

~~~~~~~~~~

If truth be told, actions by the government are so schizoid that it's difficult to determine precisely what policy truly is -- or, for that matter, where our prime minister stands.

Here we have some very good news with an announcement that the State is seeking to authorize four communities -- called outposts -- in Judea and Samaria.  The announcement came in a statement to the High Court submitted on Tuesday with regard to a Peace Now petition with regard to six communities.  Good old Peace Now had demanded removal of them all.

The four communities: Givat Assaf, in the Binyamin region of Samaria; Givat Haroeh, one of the largest unauthorized communities, in the Shomron; Maale Rekhavam, in the Gush Etzion region; and Mitzpe Lakhish, in the South Hebron Hills. 

Three had been determined to have been built on State land, so there was no legal barrier to their authorization. 

Some portion of the fourth, Givat Assaf (pictured here), was built on what had been privately owned Arab land, but residents of this community -- some 30 families -- had told the court that they had purchased that land.

Now the State has accepted the residents claims.  According to the JPost, orders had come from the "upper political echelon" to the Civil Administration to "weigh the possibility of legalizing Givat Assaf."

Credit: Flash 90

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/State-seeks-approval-of-four-West-Bank-outposts-313292

The State is working out compromises for the other two communities mentioned in the Peace Now petition, as well: In Mitzpe Yitzhar, near Yitzhar in the hills of the Shomron, two homes built on private Palestinian Arab property have been taken down and a third home will also be demolished; the implication here is that ultimately authorization may be possible for this community as well.  

In the case of Ramat Gilad, some of its homes are on State land and an agreement has been reached with its residents for many of the homes to be moved to a different part of its hilltop location.

~~~~~~~~~~

Contrast the upbeat position by the government, above, with this shameful action.  I had mentioned the issue of an Israeli failure to assert sovereignty the other day, and here we are:

A plan had been set in place to bring Jewish children to the Temple Mount today, as an educational follow-up to Shavuot, which was a time when first fruits were brought to the Temple.

In response to chatter on Islamic websites that the children would be met by rioters, police closed entry to the Temple Mount to all non-Muslims, out of concern for "public safety."

Wrong, wrong, wrong.  I don't care how many police or soldiers would have had to have been called out to protect the children, it should have been done.  To cave before threats of violence, so that Jewish rights are denied, is a bad move.

What is more, Jews who made it to the Mount over Shavuot (yesterday) and the day prior were severely harassed by Muslims and received scant police protection.  At one point Jewish entry at the Mughrabi Gate was blocked by Muslims. When a riot broke out, the Jews were removed from the Mount. 

I am ashamed to write this, but I must.  What is ours must be claimed as ours, and our rights made clear.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168039

~~~~~~~~~~ 

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 
 
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

 http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/16/may-16-2013-dead-serious.html

Tomorrow night begins the holiday of Shavuot (one day here in Israel, two days elsewhere), which celebrates the receiving of the Torah (or the Commandments) and is marked by study through the night.

Credit: ou

A good time, once again, to mark our priorities: to remember what comes first and what must guide us.  A time to turn our focus heavenward and step away from the political nonsense of every day.

And so, to all, a Chag Shavuot sameach.

~~~~~~~~~~

But for today, there is still that political nonsense...

Right now, we seem to be a whipping boy for the Syrians.  On both sides.  It's a great irony. 

The rebels are saying that we are conspiring to keep Assad in power. The Turkish daily Zaman reports that the claim was made by Abdulkader Saleh, commander of the al-Tawhid Brigade, which, I am reading, has ties with the Muslim Brotherhood:

"The opposition was going to take over arms, so Israel attacked. There is evidence pointing to this. There were some high-ranking officers with whom [the opposition forces] got into contact. [Those officers] were going to defect from [the Assad administration], handing over arms to the opposition. Israel hit these posts in fear that the opposition would take over the arms."

"...This assault, of course, was intended to support the Assad administration."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/167965

This is, of course, not exactly what was going on with the alleged Israeli hit on Iranian weaponry in Syria.  The Israeli concern was and is that major game-changing weaponry such as sophisticated missiles not fall into hands of terrorists groups, whether Hezbollah or jihadist groups associated with the Syrian rebels, who would then turn those weapons on Israel.  This was not about the sort of weapons defecting Syrian officers would likely be in a position to turn over to the opposition for use in fighting Assad. 

What caught my eye, however, is that this rebel commander said that, "Assad [father and son, actually] has protected Israel's border for 40 years."  This is as I wrote, and is one more indication that if rebels take Syria, they will feel no compunction about attempting to move into Israel.

~~~~~~~~~~

What intensifies the irony is the claim by the Syrian government that they can now go into the Golan whenever they want.  According to the Syria SANA news agency, Syria’s Information Minister, Omran al-Zoubi, claims this right because of Israel's act of aggression against Syria in hitting Syrian sites (that is, storage depots with weapons). 

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/167962

But, as was made very clear at the time, any Israeli attack on those sites (not officially acknowledged) would be to prevent a transfer of weapons and was not intended as an attack on Syria.

This is mostly saber-rattling, but....

~~~~~~~~~~

Putative PA president Mahmoud Abbas is doing his own version of saber-rattling these days.  His accusation is that Israel is attempting to harm the Al-Aksa Mosque on the Temple Mount:

"If Israel is dreaming about establishing facts on the ground through its daily attacks against the Al-Aksa Mosque, then it is deluded.

"Eastern Jerusalem is our capital city, Al-Aksa belongs to us, the Church of the Holy Sepulcher belongs to us, and we will not accept [the Israelis'] harassment."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/167957

This, undoubtedly, is the come-back for recent statements regarding Jewish rights to pray on the Temple Mount.  If our leaders are serious about asserting on rights, on the Mount and elsewhere, we must understand that the battle ahead will not be easy.  But, it is necessary.

~~~~~~~~~~

I say "If" because of news that has broken today that is generating more than a little unease.

The major story is that secret talks were held two years ago between the Israel and the PA.  Avi Issacharoff, writing in the Times of Israel, reports on information he has secured via an interview with the head of PLO Executive Committee, Yasser Abed Rabbo.  And so even as I report on this, we must remember that it all comes from Abed Rabbo. 

Credit: AFP/Abbas Momani

What he says is that there were secret meetings between Israel and the PA in late 2010 and early 2011 either in order to conduct negotiations or initiate them.  A series of meetings was held between Yitzhak Molcho, Netanyahu's envoy, and Abed Rabbo, at Molcho's home in Israel.  And then Prime Minister Netanyahu himself met with Rabbo, after which communication terminated.

"According to Abed Rabbo...Netanyahu seemed ready to renew negotiations within the framework of two states based on the June 4, 1967, lines. But the prime minister subsequently backed away from the contacts and the channel was discontinued."

Not unsurprisingly, there is no comment from the prime minister's office.

~~~~~~~~~~

Abed Rabbo is reported as saying, with regard to his meetings with Molcho:

"We discussed all the issues. But I sat and demanded in those meetings that Israel present its map for a two-state solution concept, and publicly declare its willingness to speak about the 1967 lines as the framework for the meetings. Molcho was not prepared to present a map and the meetings were truly exhausting, a lot of chatter without agreement." (Emphasis added)

http://www.timesofisrael.com/revealed-netanyahus-secret-talks-with-the-palestinians/

Is Abed Rabbo's description of a Netanyahu who "seemed ready to renew negotiations within the framework of two states based on the June 4, 1967 lines" consistent with the picture of a Molcho who would not present a map and talked a great deal with no agreement?

“Molcho," says Abed Rabbo, "was willing to include a military official in the meetings, a map expert who would present Israel’s security demands to me. Molcho emphasized in the meetings the importance of the Jordan Valley, settlement blocs, and early-warning stations on West Bank mountains. I ruled this option out. He claimed that he wanted to show me these considerations on a map, but I told him that Israel’s security concerns are not a starting point — it’s a non-starter and under the pretense of ‘security,’ you can claim anything. I made it clear that, first of all, we need to agree to speak about 1967 lines, and then start debating security issues, or even both in parallel.

"...From our standpoint, it was possible to discuss borders and security issues, but it cannot be that ‘security considerations’ would determine the borders." (Emphasis added here and above)

Was Molcho, on behalf of the prime minister, prepared to talk about giving away the store?  Myself, I would not talk about surrendering a square centimeter, but it doesn't sound like he was conveying a readiness to give it all away.

~~~~~~~~~~

Abed Rabbo describes a Netanyahu who was prepared to begin serious negotiations:

"Netanyahu didn’t rule anything out. He mostly listened. He asked me about the idea of a joint committee to manage issues related to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem — as Olmert had suggested...In the end I said to him, ‘If you want to start something serious, if you agree to the 1967 borders as a basis, including Jerusalem, then we can talk about the other things.'

“He asked if we were ready to start negotiations immediately. I said yes...

"He said to me, 'Give me two days and I’ll get back to you.' We said goodbye. He asked me to send his regards to Abu Mazen. And from that point on, I didn’t hear from Bibi or Molcho. A year later, I relayed him a message through a third party that I’ve been sitting waiting by the phone for a year, but Netanyahu did not respond."

We could speculate unendingly on what was going on here.  Maybe Netanyahu was testing the PA; maybe he was serious and then thought better of it or was dissuaded.  Perhaps Abed Rabbo read more into Netanyahu's words than was intended.  The meetings were not documented.

~~~~~~~~~~

There are those who will panic at this, because Netanyahu allegedly met in secret with a PLO representative and asked about a joint committee for Temple Mount issues, as Olmert had proposed. But what I see in the end is that the prime minister did not pursue those talks and stonewalled Abed Rabbo.  And, in fact, as the meetings were not documented, he left nothing on the record to weaken Israel's position.  And there were no maps.

In point of fact, this interview may have been provided by Abed Rabbo right now as a political tool: a way to make Netanyahu look less than forthcoming on negotiations and thus bring pressure to bear.

I will state here what I have said many times: I do not always trust Binyamin Netanyahu.  He has given me scant reason to do so.  And, demonstrating a particular weakness, he is all too ready to show himself as accommodating -- which leads him down a dangerous and slippery slope. (See more on this below.)

I have never believed, however, that he is an Ehud Olmert clone, simply itching to give our country away.  And, whatever my unease, whatever my distress, I have not yet seen clear evidence that he is that clone.  I pray that I never do.

~~~~~~~~~~

What is disconcerting, annoying, worrisome is the announcement that the prime minister has ordered a delay-- of "at least three weeks" (we shouldn't hold our collective breath) -- in issuing tenders for building 1,500 units in Ramat Shlomo, which is over the Green Line, even though all procedures were in place.

Credit: Ariel Jerozolimski/The Jerusalem Post

According to the JPost, the holdup was because of "political sensitivity."  You may remember when Vice President Biden was here and a routine announcement came out about building plans in Ramat Shlomo.  US officials responded as if Israel had deliberately mortified their vice president, and used this issue to generate quite a scene (with Hillary Clinton doing quite a bit of that generating). 

Ramat Shlomo construction was held up for some time after that, which was unfortunate, because new housing is needed in that neighborhood.  It's not all about politics here, folks -- it's about needing places to live.  If the project was now set to go forward, it should have gone forward.

~~~~~~~~~~

I will add here in closing, with regard to fears of our prime minister "giving away" eastern Jerusalem, that, to the very best of my understanding legislation is on the books since November 2010 that requires approval in a public referendum and the votes of at least 60 Knesset members before any withdrawal from East Jerusalem or the Golan Heights.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3988447,00.html

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/13/may-13-2013-life-goes-on.html