It doesn't end; the insults to Israel, the attempts to delegitimize Israel, the lies about Israel.

According to the Country Ratings Poll of the BBC World Service, which was just released, the percentage of people in various nations polled that has a negative view of Israel has increased.   More than 24,000 people were polled in 22 countries.  In EU countries -- particularly Germany, Spain, Great Britain and France -- negative rating are very high. 

Is the world totally daft?  The negative ratings for Israel are similar to those for Pakistan and North Korea.

The only exceptions to this trend are the US, Nigeria and Kenya, where the percentage viewing Israel as positive has increased. 

~~~~~~~~~~

These ratings have much less to do with reality than with perceptions, which are influenced by deliberate campaigns of delegitimization.  Michael Oren, Israeli Ambassador to the US, wrote about this in the Wall Street Journal recently.

And, I must add, by anti-Semitism, which has become more politically correct these days.  It is, of course, no accident that Europe, which views Israel negatively, also has a strong tradition of anti-Semitism.

~~~~~~~~~~

I especially like the hard-nosed and optimistic take on this offered by Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, who frequently comments on the political scene.

Credit: JerusalemConnection

His position here is different from what many are saying (all emphasis added):
"World opinion should not deter Israel from enhancing Jewish roots and national security, expanding the Jewish presence in Jerusalem, Judea, Samaria and the Golan Heights, and pre-empting Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorism.

"Adverse world opinion and global pressure have always been an integral part of the Jewish people and the Jewish state. The aim of this global campaign has been to eliminate the unique national, religious, cultural and territorial features of the Jewish people, including Jewish sovereignty over the land of Israel.

"The bolstering of Jewish sovereignty generates negative world opinion (except in the U.S. and a few other countries), but enhances respect toward a conviction-driven Jewish state. On the other hand, when Jewish sovereignty retreats and Israel submits to world opinion, it just reflects weakness. Israel will never satisfy world opinion, and such action only further fuels global pressure, which erodes respect toward the Jewish state.

"...going against the grain has been a prerequisite for game-changing human endeavors in general, and Jewish initiatives in particular.

"Going against the grain has been a Jewish trait since the introduction of Abraham’s monotheism. Moreover, a defiant Jewish people has preserved and advanced the Jewish vision and strategic Jewish goals – while contributing uniquely to humanity – in the face of devastation, decimation, exiles, pogroms, expulsions, public burning, discrimination, forceful conversion and the Holocaust. If they had allowed themselves to be intimidated by world opinion, the Jewish people would have been doomed to oblivion. "

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=1896

Right on, Yoram!

~~~~~~~~~~

A very specific sort of outrage is found with regard to this:

In 1972, at the Olympic Games in Munich, Arab terrorists made their way into Olympic village, where participants stayed, and massacred 11 Israeli athletes and their coaches. 

Credit: radarsite

The games went on...

This year, prior to the Olympic Games scheduled to take place in London, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, acting on behalf of two widows of the murdered athletes, sent a letter to International Olympic Committee President, Jacques Rogge requesting one minute of silence at the games in memory of these athletes.

Rogge has refused.  Forty years after the fact, one minute is still too much.  And I have no doubt that it's too much because we're talking about Israelis.

Ayalon's response:
"Unfortunately, this response is unacceptable as it rejects the central principles of global fraternity on which the Olympic ideal is supposed to rest. The terrorist murders of the Israeli athletes were not just an attack on people because of their nationality and religion; it was an attack on the Olympic Games and the international community. Thus it is necessary for the Olympic Games as a whole to commemorate this event in the open rather than only in a side event.

"This rejection told us as Israelis that this tragedy is yours alone and not a tragedy within the family of nations. This is a very disappointing approach and we hope that this decision will be overturned so the international community as one can remember, reflect and learn the appropriate lesson from this dark stain on Olympic history."

The Foreign Ministry intends to mount a campaign in an attempt to secure a reversal of this decision.

~~~~~~~~~~

And speaking of the Olympics, Jibril Rajoub, former head of Palestinian Preventative Security Service in the West Bank, and now chair of the Palestinian Football (that is, soccer) Association, has called for Israel to be expelled from all international Olympic Committees until it "honors its international agreements."

They don't let up, do they?  No matter how outrageous, they give it a shot.  And if a particular gambit doesn't work? It still reinforces in peoples' minds the "fact" that Israel is a renegade state.

~~~~~~~~~~

As to Israel as "negative," the world pays no attention to news such as this:

Scientists at Hebrew University in Jerusalem have developed a device that allows blind people to "see," by converting pictures taken by a camera into "soundscapes," that the user can interpret.

How many people who see Israel as "negative" will benefit from this and dozens of other medical advances coming out of Israel?

~~~~~~~~~~

Shabbat is coming, and so I end with a story that can bring a laugh:

This lovely looking bird, Merops Apiaster, is commonly known as the European Bee-Eater.  A farmer in Turkey found one of these birds dead recently. When he examined it, he saw that it bore a metal band on its leg that said "Israel."  Not only that, its nostrils were unusually large, suggesting that there was a device implanted in the bird for espionage purposes.

Could I make this up?

The bird has been turned over to Turkey's security services, which are apparently not aware of the practice of banding migrating birds (of which Israel is temporary home to millions).

More evidence that the world is crazy, and that when it comes to Israel they'll believe anything.

~~~~~~~~~~

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The agreement with the prisoners that was negotiated and signed can be seen here:

http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=56768

A few points are worth mention before we move to other issues. 

The leaders, in signing the agreement, pledged to refrain from all activity that constitutes practical support for terrorism, e.g., recruitment, providing guidance.  And yes, this is a laughable proposition.  It means about as much as the pledge signed by terrorists, released in deals such the Shalit trade, that they will never return to terrorism.  

Consider the implications of this:  From within their prison cells, prisoners who are terrorist leaders have had sufficient access to the outside world to be able to get out messages that foment or promote terrorism.  This, for all their laments.

The only advantage to securing such pledges that I see is that if terrorist leaders are caught breaking it, prison officials can declare the deal void.  Whether they actually would -- or, rather, will -- is another issue.

Key aspects are elimination or reduction of solitary confinement and increased primary family visitation.
There is, obviously, a direct connection between the pledge by the prisoners to not promote terrorism and the concessions above.

Other issues relating to improved conditions are to be examined after the strike ends.  I would imagine it is here that such matters as securing Israeli academic degrees while in prison will be examined.  There had been allusions to the possible release of a few prisoners, but I have seen no more about this.

~~~~~~~~~~

There is, thankfully, no mention of administrative detention in this agreement, and you might want to see what the IDF has to say about it:

"[It] is a lawful security measure allowing the deprivation of a person's liberty for a limited time. Administrative detention orders are used as a preventative measure against persons posing grave threats to the security of the West Bank or its population, such as persons directly involved in terrorism, whose detention is considered to be absolutely necessary for imperative reasons of security."

There are many safeguards incorporated into the process of detaining someone who is deemed a security risk, and a legal procedure must be followed.  When you see this, you understand that we are not talking about the IDF arbitrarily grabbing people and locking them up.

http://www.idf.il/1283-15916-EN/Dover.aspx

~~~~~~~~~~

MK Danny Danon, who has been very much a lone voice of protest lately, says he intends to bring the signed deal to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in order to stop its implementation. 

Credit: DannyDanon

Good thought, but his chances of success are close to nil.

~~~~~~~~~~

Late yesterday the prime minister's spokesman, Mark Regev, announced that the concessions to the prisoners were made as a confidence-building gesture to PA president Abbas, in the hopes that it would bring peace closer.  Abbas had made a request that the prisoners' demands be heeded, you see.  (And, I will add, he also asked Molcho for the return of the bodies of 100 terrorists buried here, and this is to be done.)

This, even more than the commitment secured from the prisoner leaders, is laughable.  But so pathetic, it's terribly hard to laugh.

~~~~~~~~~~

First, it's quite clear that Israeli officials had other reasons for wanting to quiet things in the prisons: 

Today is Nakba day.  Nakba means catastrophe in Arabic, and refers to the day (in the secular calendar) that modern Israel was founded.  In the Palestinian Arab world it is marked by demonstrations and violence, so that every year Israeli police and security forces gear up for trouble. 

Credit: Nowtheendbegins

Today started with a rocket fired from Gaza, and Molotov cocktails in Hevron.  During the course of the day, there have been clashes between Arab demonstrators and Israeli forces in several locations.  Most disturbing is that some of the 200 Arab demonstrators at Kever Rachel (Rachel's Tomb) outside of Bethlehem threw rocks at Jewish worshippers.

Repeatedly -- in the last couple of days -- it was said that Israeli officials were hoping to quell unrest in the prisons before Nakba day, when it was anticipated the situation would get considerably out of hand.

~~~~~~~~~~

Then too there is our relationship with Egypt with regard to the negotiations, which I've already dealt with.  Egypt was much praised by the Arab world yesterday for what was achieved. 

And there is that unfortunate sensitivity to international criticism leveled at us because we are so "cruel" to our prisoners. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Presenting the concessions as a voluntary gesture towards peace might have been an attempt to counter the celebrations in Gaza and PA areas regarding the "victory" over Israel:  It puts a different spin on matters if we were doing this by choice and not because we were coerced.

But giving something to Abbas??  How many unreciprocated gestures has Israel made by now?  And precisely where has it gotten us?  Laughable? Or shameful?

Let's circle back for a moment to the matter of Nakba Day, which Abbas's Palestinian Authority observes.  This is not an expression of longing for all the lands beyond the '67 lines, in which to establish a state.  The premise here is that Israel does not have a right to the lands within the '67 lines -- that is, that Israel is not legitimate in any configuration.

How is peace possible with an entity that maintains this position? And how is it imagined that "gestures' such as giving murders of Jews more privileges in Israeli prisons will bring us even remotely closer to peace?

~~~~~~~~~~

It's not difficult to understand what's going on, however. And this allows me to segue right into my next, related, topic:

Prime Minister Netanyahu is back in his "Look world, I'm the good guy and not the impediment to peace" mode.

Just a couple of days ago, Netanyahu's envoy, Yitzhak Molcho, carried a letter from the prime minister to Abbas.  Its contents were not revealed, officially. But as is the way in such situations, portions of the letter were leaked.  Haaretz, citing someone who saw the letter, said it "included a pledge by Netanyahu to establish a demilitarized Palestinian state in keeping with the principle of a two-state solution."

~~~~~~~~~~

A great deal has been made of this by media sources, who are saying that the letter, in writing on official stationery, represents a step forward in his commitment to the two-state solution.  I'm not at all certain that this is the case: Netanyahu has made similar statements in various public pronouncements, most notably in his speech at Ben Gurion University.

Yes, it's in writing. But it is not a document that -- to the very best of my knowledge -- had the official backing of the Cabinet or the Inner Cabinet or the Knesset.  It was Netanyahu's letter, and debate centers around whether this carries much in the way of "official" weight.  Not so very long ago, Minister Benny Begin declared that Netanyahu's Ben Gurion speech "did not speak for the government."

Is it a small additional slide down that slippery slope upon which the prime minister situates himself? Possibly.
 ``
The point is made in some quarters that while he expresses commitment to a peace deal, he sets out security parameters, including that business of a "demilitarized state," that the PLO will never, ever accept.

~~~~~~~~~~

With regard to being "demilitarized," please read what Jonathan Tobin has written regarding the fact that the PA is currently armed to the teeth and seeking additional weapons.

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/05/13/palestinians-short-of-ideas-not-guns-abbas-peace-netanyahu-obama/

They'll not agree to being demilitarized in our lifetimes.

The bottom line, says Tobin, is that "Abbas has demonstrated time and again that he isn't willing or capable of signing a peace agreement that would recognize the legitimacy of a Jewish state no matter where its borders are drawn."

Netanyahu full well knows this.

~~~~~~~~~~

I think in part the prime minister may be playing to the left flank of his enlarged coalition.  But even more he's playing to this:

The EU, after the monthly meeting of its foreign ministers on Monday, issued a statement that -- even after an effort by Italy to modify it -- was sharply critical of Israel, which is allegedly a stumbling block to "peace."  Allusions were made to marked acceleration of settlement construction, formalization of the status of three outposts, and the proposal to relocate Migron to another hill "within the occupied Palestinian territory."

The EU is totally devoid of the integrity that permits comments on these issues.  And I would prefer a different response here in Jerusalem.

But our prime minister handles matters as is his wont.

~~~~~~~~~~   

I had written about two similar versions of the "Illegal Outposts" legislation that were to be brought to the Knesset this week.  A decision on doing this is awaiting the word from the prime minister regarding allowing people to vote their consciences and not adhere to party or coalition lines.

In light of what I've just written above, I have the feeling that this is not going to be forthcoming right now.  And that will be very unfortunate, very sad, if it is so.

~~~~~~~~~~

Let me close with this short good news clip about Israel from the people who brought you "Israel Inside":

http://www.stepupforisrael.com/?house

Always, always, the good news too.

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.

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I wrote not long ago about an excellent up-beat film on Israel called "Israel Inside," with Tal Ben-
Shahar, produced by Rafi Shore. 

Now, to coincide with Israeli Independence Day according to the secular calendar, JerusalemOnlineU, the creator and distributor of the movie, is offering viewing via free streaming -- for one week starting today.  You can access it here:
 
http://www.israelinsidethemovie.com/free-stream-of-israel-inside/

Please, take the time to see it, pass it along quickly so that others might see it, and publicize it via blogs and lists.

We have so very much to be proud of, in terms of who we are. 

~~~~~~~~~~

So very much to be proud of.... But oh the angst about the things that are going in the wrong direction here.  I seem to have pushed a lot of buttons with my posting yesterday, if reader response is any indication. 

My very favorite (and very "on the mark") observation came from reader Sandor S: 

"Jews debating destruction of Jewish homes and worrying about convicted enemies who choose not to eat??

"This is the theatre of the absurd."

Yeah... it is.

~~~~~~~~~~

I wrote yesterday that a source (whom I normally find highly reliable) advised me that Israel was involving the military government of Egypt (SCAF) in negotiations on the prisoners in order to give it a needed boost.

But I have now uncovered another, related but deeper, reason for Egyptian involvement:

A small number -- perhaps as many as five -- of the prisoners currently protesting their administrative detention are people previously in Israeli prisons who had been released as part of the trade for Shalit.  They were tracked, and when it was clear they were again (or still) involved with terrorism, and thus a danger to Israel, were picked up once again and are being held in administrative detention.  (With thanks to Judith N on this.)

~~~~~~~~~~

Egypt was key to the negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding the trade of Palestinian Arab prisoners for Shalit.

Hamas is now saying that Egyptian officials assumed responsibility for guaranteeing that the prisoners, once released, would not then be rounded up again by Israel. 

(If Egypt did make such a pledge, did this include those who were again involved in terrorist activity?  I can safely conjecture that no differentiation was made -- or put the other way around, that it was assumed they would be involved in terror, no matter the promises that were extracted, and that this was irrelevant to the deal.)

Saleh Aruri, who holds the prisoners’ portfolio in Hamas, said there would have been no deal if not for  the assurances provided by Egyptian authorities:
"I think the Egyptian government is bound morally and legally to demand the immediate release of the rearrested prisoners. We are going to contact the Egyptian brothers to press them to intervene."

While Issa Karaki, PA Minister for Prisoners' Affairs, has said:

"By re-arresting some of these freed prisoners in violation of the Egyptian-mediated deal, Israel is demonstrating contempt and disregard for Egypt and its government. I believe the proverbial ball is squarely in the Egyptian court."

~~~~~~~~~~

And so now we truly see a reason for Egypt to want to be involved, as well as a reason why Israel would agree to that involvement in order to try to save SCAF embarrassment in the Arab world.

What I had yesterday was merely the surface of the story.  Here we learn a lesson, once again, regarding how complex these matters can be.

~~~~~~~~~~

As I write, the word is that Egypt has put together a proposal to which Israel and the prisoners have now agreed.   It is clear that Israel was eager to cool matters, so that it would not be necessary to deal with rioting prisoners and possibly rioting sympathizers as well. 

Credit: rfi

And so concessions have been made.

I have read that leaders of the prisoners were brought to a prison in Ashkelon to discuss the potential agreement with Israeli officials -- with the Shin Bet representing Israel.  This scenario makes my stomach very tight indeed.

All of the details of the agreement have not been released.  While Israel -- whose officials seem to be saying little -- has refused to do away with administrative detention entirely, there will apparently be some modification of this practice.  This is worrisome in terms of what it may do to the security of the Israeli populace. 

According to at least one report, there will be some prisoners released.  If they are the prisoners who had originally been released in the exchange with Shalit, and then picked up again, this will be very bad news indeed.  But I would not be surprised, for this would be Israel "redeeming" Egypt's position in the Arab world.

Other concessions involve the conditions for the prisoners -- family visitations, solitary confinement, etc. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Hard for me to believe -- that I've devoted the bulk of a posting to this prison issue.  I am not proud of what I've had to write.  The PA has the death penalty for people who sell land to Jews, and the world is trying to hold us accountable for how we treat murderers. And we cooperate.

This comment from MK Michael Ben-Ari (National Union):

"Netanyahu’s ‘just talk’ government has folded yet again instead of striking with an iron fist.

"It turns out that baby killers will keep living the high life in Bibi’s rest center."

~~~~~~~~~~

Much more to write about, and it will have to wait until tomorrow...

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.

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My information, as I write, is that the committee appointed by the prime minister to solve the problem of Ulpana has met twice now -- on Friday and today -- but that there is not yet resolution.  The issues are said to be "complex" and they will be meeting again.  I don't have great expectations, but there is still some modicum of hope.

~~~~~~~~~~  

In the meantime, The Legal Forum for the Land of Israel has joined with two residents of Ulpana, and today filed an appeal with the High Court requesting a delay on the demolition of five houses in this community. 

It argues, first, that the Court has violated Basic Law, which protects human dignity.

Then it states that the High Court acted unreasonably in ordering the demolition of the homes before a lower court has ruled on a lawsuit regarding ownership of the land.  People in Beit El (where Ulpana is located) have said, I will add, that they have submitted information regarding the ownership of this land that has not yet been examined. 

I am "just" a layperson.  But to me the argument regarding the necessity to first legally determine the ownership of the land is such irrefutably basic logic that anything else is unthinkable.  And yet... here we are.   

Lastly, the petition to the High Court notes that the expulsion order was issued with no discussion regarding compensation that would allow the families to purchase different homes. 

~~~~~~~~~~

No one can predict how the Court will respond to this.  A representative of the Legal Forum pointed out to me today that this was an unusual petition, because it challenges the ruling of the Court itself.

~~~~~~~~~~

For those of you who want a more serious look at this contentious and problematic issue, I share the Israelnationalnews link to a translation from Makor Rishon on the question of whether the law demands the demolition of these houses. According to the article:

"In actual fact, the courts never ruled that the law requires destroying the five Ulpana hill buildings in Beit El.

"The court never ruled that they are on private land, and that the claimants are the owners of that land.

"The court never discussed the above three questions. It [the court] asked the government what its position on the matter is, what it recommends, and the legal department answered that its position is that it is private land and that the government's policy concerning land on which Jews have settled is as follows: if construction is on government land, it must be legalized and if construction is on private land, it must be removed. The courts made decision in accordance with that government policy. (Emphasis added)

"Is the government's policy mandated by law? Does the law demand that the houses be destroyed?"

Professor of Law Shalom Lerner has written a detailed letter to the prime minister explaining why the answer to both of these questions is negative.  His thinking is outlined in this article.  Of particular note is the "good faith principle," which certainly applies in this instance.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/11644

~~~~~~~~~~

MK Miri Regev (Likud) attempted today bring a bill forward that would have extended Israeli civil law to recognized Jewish communities beyond the Green Line.  

Credit:YNet

Bravo to her.  This is something else that seems imminently logical and fair to me, and which would solve a host of problems.  It is past-due.

But it was shot down in the Ministerial Committee for Legislative Affairs after the committee understood that Netanyahu was opposed.  According to Times of Israel, Minister Benny Begin (Likud) said, "This bill is an unrealistic display, and for such displays we pay a heavy price in the international arena."

To which Science Minister Daniel Hershkowitz (HaBayit Hayehudi) replied, "We shouldn’t just think about the message this is sending to the nations of the world, but also about what message this is sending to the people of Israel."

So it didn't pass this time, but at least we know someone has his head screwed on right.  Bravo to him as well.

~~~~~~~~~~

Let's turn now to the on-going issue of the hunger strike by the Palestinian Arab prisoners, which is every bit as maddening as the above.

I learned with great bewilderment last night that the Egyptian government is doing negotiations with Israel regarding these prisoners. Egypt? Why have we sought/permitted their involvement? 

Again: We're dealing with people who have killed or attempted to kill innocent Jews and were convicted of their crimes, and others -- some smaller number -- directly associated with terrorists in such a way that Israel deems them to be an immediate threat but is unable to prosecute in open court because of the sensitivity of intelligence and the need to protect sources.  In these latter cases the courts have approved administrative detention for them.   

~~~~~~~~~~

I then called a source who has multiple Arab contacts.  What he told me is that it is the intention of Israel to involve the Egyptian government in this because it is desirable to provide prestige to the ruling military -- The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) --  as it battles with radicals for control of Egypt.  Interesting.... And, I would imagine, this promotes good will on the part of SCAF as well -- we need them for such matters as combating terrorism in the Sinai .

~~~~~~~~~~

The Arabs are using this burgeoning prison unrest to the maximum.  The prisoners themselves are threatening to riot, while the radical Islamic Movement in Israel has promoted massive rallies in support of the prisoners.  And according to one report, PA president Abbas has appealed to Secretary of State Clinton to intervene and secure the prisoners their demands.  Shall I title him king of chutzpah (moxy, gall)?  I don't know how Hillary responded.

My own sentiments are pretty much in line with those of a friend who expressed the desire to form (I am paraphrasing here) "a committee to permit the Palestinian Arab prisoners to starve to death if they wish."

But this, of course, will not happen.  At a bare minimum, those in severe condition -- there are at present six in dire shape -- will be hospitalized and put on IVs.  Every effort will be made to keep them alive.  One prisoner who is not eating described the situation succinctly: We win either way -- either they give us what we demand or we die and become martyrs.

For the record: There are 1,600 said to be on that hunger strike, of the 4,600 Palestinian Arabs in our prisons.

~~~~~~~~~~

So, the question -- painfully -- is how much the Israeli Prison Authority will cave here for the sake of quiet and avoiding bad international PR.  We don't want "martyrs."

Some things have already been conceded.  Some others will be. Hamas's Haniyeh in Gaza said yesterday that "there is an important development on the issue of prisoner demands."

~~~~~~~~~~

Some background on this:  Israeli authorities were, from my perspective, for too generous in allocations to the Palestinian prisoners for a long time.  Apparently at least some of the perks that were permitted the prisoners came as the result of prior prisoner strikes and prior negotiations.

When tensions grew over Gilad Shalit, who was not even permitted a visit by the Red Cross, as mandated by international law, authorities here decided it was time to cut back on what Palestinian Arabs were provided in Israeli prisoners.  To the thinking of many of us, this was a case of Israeli authorities finally coming to their senses.  Higher education/conjugal rights for these killers? 

But the prisoners are now saying that they had a deal with the authorities.  And, OK, perks were cut when things were bad for Shalit. But he's out now, and it's time to reinstate those perks.

This reminds me of a spoiled child who gets her way when she has a tantrum.  It's even more difficult for parents to say no once a precedent has been set.

I don't think I'm going to like how this is likely to end.

~~~~~~~~~~

Please see an NGO-Monitor statement on the way some ostensible "human rights" NGOs are handling the prisoner hunger strike:

"A hunger strike by Palestinians convicted of murdering dozens of Israeli civilians in suicide bombings and other attacks, as well as a few prisoners held in Israeli administrative detention for suspected terrorist activity, is being publicized by a number of political advocacy NGOs.

"As in the past, NGOs claiming to promote human rights are promoting a one-sided image in which the Palestinians are automatically being portrayed as victims, removing the context of violent attacks that deliberately target Israeli civilians." (Emphasis added)

http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=56748

This is important information to have, should you see publicity by these NGOs.

~~~~~~~~~~

Yitzhak Molcho, who serves as an envoy for Netanyahu, met last night with Abbas in Ramallah.  He carried to the PA president a letter that was a response from our prime minister to a letter that Abbas had sent him last month.

Credit: spacewar

The contents of the letter were not released. Scuttlebutt has it, however, that it offers to begin negotiations with no preconditions, and little beyond this.

~~~~~~~~~~

The Palestinian Arabs are already saying that they don't expect anything to come of this, and don't believe that the new coalition will change the essential situation.

The PLO Executive Committee has examined the letter.  Committee member Hanan Ashwari then put out a statement to Reuters indicating that, "The content of [Netanyahu's] letter did not represent grounds for returning to negotiations."  

A delegation from J-Street --  good old J-Street! -- visited Abbas yesterday. According to the Palestinian news agency Maan:

"Abbas said that the Palestinian side is committed to peace based on the two-state solution and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.

"He stressed that the Palestinian leadership will resume negotiations with Israel if it approves the principle of the two-state solution and halts all settlement activities in the Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem."

Entirely predictable.  Round and round we go...

~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.

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In the days since I first wrote about the "surprise" unity government arrangement forged by Netanyahu and Mofaz, I've seen next to nothing in the way of expressions of pleasure at this new arrangement. 

Could it be that Netanyahu and Mofaz are the only ones truly happy with what has transpired?

~~~~~~~~~~

On the part of members of both the Likud and Kadima factions there is an expression of frustration with how little they were truly consulted.  At some level, it was a "done deal" that they were asked to officially endorse.

That this should be the feeling in Likud is understandable. For, while the party's position may be stronger now, the strength of individual members of the Likud faction -- especially on the right -- has been diluted.

Rumors that have surfaced regarding the possibility that up to three members of Kadima may be appointed as members of the Cabinet particularly irked them: There was no mention of this in the original deal. 

All that is certain at this point is that Mofaz, who has been cleared as a deputy prime minister by the Knesset, will also be a minister without portfolio; he will sit in the Cabinet, and, most certainly, the Inner Cabinet as well.

~~~~~~~~~~

The unrest generated by this rumor -- I cannot say if it is true or not -- is, I think, a reflection of a broader discontent.  It's what happens when people directly involved in the political process believe one situation pertains, and a deal that totally changes it is then struck at 2:00 AM, without their participation.  Whatever else that is positive might come from the arrangement, the sense of distrust that it has generated is regrettable and will likely have repercussions.

~~~~~~~~~~

More surprising is that there is some of the same feeling of discontent in the Kadima faction, even though some good percentage of its members would have lost their seats had there been an election in September. 

It is coming from the members on the left, most notably -- the sense is that in joining with Likud, Kadima has lost its way.

Ironically, it is Haim Ramon, a founder of Kadima, who gave voice to this feeling most vociferously.  (What is ironic is that this former MK is hardly a model of rectitude himself.)  He had been serving as head of the Kadima Council until the new arrangement was announced.  Now he has resigned from that position and from the party.

"Kadima has reverted to being Likud," he declared.  "...Kadima is done being a centrist party."

The background on this is that Ramon had bolted from Labor in order to join Kadima.  A strange political situation -- this party was founded with people who left Likud on one side and Labor on the other. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Now Ramon says he may join up with (disgruntled former head of Kadima) Tzipi Livni and Yair Lapid to work on a new party.  I am assuming he means he and Livni will come under the tent of Lapid's brand-new Yesh Atid. 

Political musical chairs.  Enough to make one's head spin.

~~~~~~~~~~

Foreign Minister Lieberman held a press conference in the Knesset yesterday, at which he declared that a major test of the new coalition will be its readiness to pass legislation that would protect Ulpana from being destroyed:

"The residents living on the Ulpana Hill are law-abiding citizens and fulfill all their obligations: They serve in the IDF and do reserve duty, they work and pay taxes. This is not an illegal outpost; it is the government’s mistake."

~~~~~~~~~~

I could not agree more!

And, I see some reason for hope here, if reports are correct.

Apparently, two versions of a law that would prevent "unauthorized" communities in Judea and Samaria from being summarily demolished are to be brought to the Knesset next week.  One was sponsored by MK Yisrael Katz (National Union), with MKs Yariv Levin and Ze'ev Elkin (Likud) and David Rotem (Yisrael Beitenu).  The other was brought by Zevulun Orlev (Habayit Hayehudi).

The differences in the two versions remains unclear, as I write.  The version I am familiar with, broadly, says that a Jewish community cannot be taken down because of some general assumption that it is on Palestinian land; rather, there must be documentation of ownership by a Palestinian Arab that is certified by the courts.  If a certain period of time has passed, and the community has more than 20 residents, then even if Palestinian Arab ownership is documented, financial compensation or alternate property is awarded and the community still stands.

~~~~~~~~~~

According to Arutz Sheva, Orlev says that there are reports that the prime minister is giving "positive consideration" to the possibility of allowing ministers to vote their conscience on the bill, rather than being bound by party discipline. Orlev had been waiting for this.

Orlev is quoted as saying:

"Based on the count of ministers and MKs who support this law, there is a solid majority for passing it in the Knesset next Wednesday."
 
What is more, according to Arutz Sheva, Netanyahu will convene a committee tomorrow to seek a solution for Ulpana.  That committee will include Prime Minister Netanyahu, Minister Shaul Mofaz, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Justice Minister Yaakov Neeman, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon," and Minister Benny Begin.

The prime minister is reported to be considering either legislation (as alluded to above) or administrative seizure of the land by the IDF.  (If the IDF requires the land, for security or other purposes, it becomes Israeli state land.)

The second option would guarantee that the houses on Ulpana would stand -- but would apply only to Ulpana. The first would be applicable to a number of instances, including Migron.  Were Netanyahu throw his weight behind legislation, it would pass.

~~~~~~~~~~

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With apologies for the delay in getting this material -- which went out to my list two days ago -- up on this site.

________________

Israelis went to sleep last night thinking that we were on the cusp of an election campaign, and woke up this morning to the news that overnight Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had forged a unity government deal with Shaul Mofaz, head of the Kadima party. 

Credit: TimesofIsrael
 
The first of three required readings in the Knesset for legislation was done yesterday regarding the dissolving of the Knesset -- but the other two readings  were blocked so that the 18th Knesset still stands.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Whether truly happy about it or not, both Shas and Yisrael Beitenu (major parties in the coalition) signed off on this.  As did the Likud faction, which signed the coalition agreement with Kadima; MK Danny Danon voted against it.
 
This move establishes the largest coalition in Israel's history: 94 members, consisting of seven parties: Likud, Kadima, Yisrael Beitenu, Shas, Independence (Barak's break-off from Labor), United Torah Judaism, and Habayit Hayehudit.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Mofaz is pledged to seeing this through until the end of the term of the current administration -- that is, October 2013, when elections are scheduled to take place. 
 
Likud and Kadima, in their agreement, have committed to working on "changes in the system of election and governance." That such changes are sorely needed is clear, but whether this will evolve as a good thing remains to be seen, as proposals evolve.
 
Also agreed upon was work on the replacement for the Tal Law -- i.e., establishment of a law that will provide an "egalitarian and fair" system for having all parts of the population share responsibility for IDF service. There is to be a gradual increase in the enlistment of the hareidi -- ultra-Orthodox -- community, but it is unclear as to whether there will be an option for alternative national service. Kadima will head the effort to draft this legislation.
 
~~~~~~~~~~ 
 
This was a brilliant move for Mofaz, whose party was definitely on its way out -- with polls showing a serious loss in seats, were an election to be held soon.
 
Mofaz is now a Deputy Prime Minister, and Kadima will be chairing the Knesset Finance Committee.  What undoubtedly is very important to him, as well, is his role in crafting the replacement for the Tal Law.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
It is being said in some quarters that it was also a brilliant move by Netanyahu.  Brilliant or slippery or just plain sneaky.  Depends on whom you ask.  My vote is still out, depending on how he now utilizes this situation. But I confess unease.
 
What Netanyahu has gained is the upper hand over elements who were challenging him.  There is Lieberman, who, while still in the coalition, no longer has any clout: He cannot threaten to bring down the government. 
 
And there is the right, nationalist flank of the Likud party.  Netanyahu saw at the Likud Central Committee Convention that he was not solidly in control.  This, in particular, distresses me.  That increased nationalist control in the party was a democratic process.
 
Netanyahu has certainly secured increased government stability, and greater maneuverability.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
One of the big losers in this move is the Labor party, which was slated, according to the polls, to gain enormously in the September election, so that it would have been a force to contend with; party chair Shelly Yachimovich is livid about what she considers to be an underhanded deal. 

But from where I sit this is perhaps a positive with regard to Netanyahu's current move: Had there been elections, Labor might well have ended up as part of a new coalition -- and Labor is well to the left of what is supposed to be a centrist Kadima.     
 
Also losing out here is Yair Lapid and his brand-new party, Yesh Atid, which is quite likely to fizzle before elections take place in some 18 months.  Naftali Bennett, a one-time chief of staff for Netanyahu, had been talking about starting a new nationalist party, and this will also likely become moot as well.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
A bit of background here about Mofaz and Kadima: 
 
At the time of the last elections, Kadima actually secured one more mandate than Likud (28 - 27). But Tzipi Livni, who then headed the party, was not able to stitch together a coalition; thus did it fall to Likud and Netanyahu.  Livni absolutely declined to join a unity government; there was enormous enmity between her and Netanyahu.
 
Over a period of time, there were rumors floating regarding the fact that a faction of Kadima that was more rightist was going to move over to Likud.  That never materialized, but Mofaz was one of those about whom this was said -- that is, he was seen to be to the right within Kadima.  This may be relevant now.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Shaul Mofaz does not have a reputation as a straight player with integrity -- but as a political pragmatist who plays fast and loose with words.  When Ariel Sharon first broke off the Kadima party from Likud, Mofaz had written a letter to members of Likud declaring that he would never leave the party; a day later he moved over to Kadima.
 
This is relevant now because questions are being asked about how much of what he says can be trusted. 
 
In one regard there is a clear dissonance between his recent words and his current behavior:  Just days ago -- as head of the opposition with a national election pending --  he was criticizing Netanyahu as unfit to be prime minister.  While before the Kadima primary, he had written:
"Listen up: I won't join Bibi's government. Not today, not tomorrow and not after I head Kadima on March 28. This is a bad and failed government and Kadima under my leadership will replace it in the next elections. Is that clear enough?"

And now he has signed on with him.  Yachimovich is making a good deal of this.
 
The fact that he may not mean what he says (perhaps more so than most politicians) makes it difficult to predict where he will fall with regard to certain policies in this new unity government.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
It is only weeks ago that Mofaz soundly defeated Livni for the position of head of the party, in a Kadima primary.  He was formerly IDF chief of staff, and served as Minister of Defense under Sharon.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
So when we finish discussing the benefits of this to Netanyahu and Mofaz, where does this leave the nation?
 
No election now.  Greater stability.  The strength of the new unity coalition makes it more possible for Netanyahu to deal with Obama with strength.  All to the good -- if there is intention to stand up to Obama.
 
Aside from the questions of reform in government and the Tal law replacement, I see two major issues, and I cannot at this point predict how they will play out.
 
The first is Iran.  Netanyahu is in a stronger position to take on Iran with the more solid coalition.  It is well known here that he is in favor of doing so, in fact believes it necessary to do so.  The question now is what has transpired in this regard in his arrangements with Mofaz.
 
Mofaz recently came out against attacking Iran. But that was when he was playing as the opposition -- taking stands contrary to what Netanyahu stood for.  What is truly his position?  He speaks about security for Israel a great deal.  Will he cooperate with Netanyahu when push comes to shove on this?
 
A good deal is made of the fact that he is the only member of the government who was born in Iran.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
The other issue of importance is "the peace process" and the government stance on defending Israel's right to build in Judea and Samaria.  It is here, perhaps, that I am most unsettled.  For the nationalist wing of Likud has been sidelined to some degree, and someone further to the left -- whether identified as centrist or not -- has been brought in.
 
There is talk about how negotiations with the Palestinian Arabs can proceed more effectively with Mofaz in his current position -- this is certainly something Mofaz himself refers to.  And I want to know what this means, as we lack a "peace partner."  Doesn't matter who sits in the government if the other side has destructive intentions. 
 
Are we talking about more concessions?  Are we looking at a refusal to acknowledge Jewish rights to the land?  Rhetorical questions, perhaps.  And prospects that bring unease. 
 
The issue of how much Mofaz is committed to Israel's security will play into matters here.  As will Netanyahu's intentions, of course.
 
The PA is already saying that, with the new unity government, settlements should be frozen immediately.  How Netanyahu responds will give us our first clue as to what we might expect.
 
Theoretically, it is possible that there was a trade-off with respect to this  -- with Mofaz getting a reprieve for his party and a chance to manage the Tal law replacement in return for not pushing on this issue. 
 
And it is conceivable that a failure to bring even a tentative "deal" while there is a new "pro-peace" element in the government will ultimately highlight to the world where the failure of good intentions lies.
 
All theoretically possible.  It should only be. But I'm not holding my breath.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Obviously, all of this must be tracked carefully over time.  But at this moment in time, there is the burning issue of Givat Ha'Ulpana -- the Ulpana neighborhood of Beit El.
 
Yesterday, a ruling was announced from the High Court with regard to the government petition in late April that more time be given before the dismantlement of Ulpana that was supposed to take place by May 1, so that a new policy might be developed.
 
The Court has now said Ulpana has to be dismantled by July 1.  This was confusing to many, including yours truly.  What I have learned is that the government requested the opportunity to review policy, but the Court had not accepted the validity of that request -- it said, OK, take two more months, but take Ulpana down.  The "two more months" was not a concession with regard to reviewing policy -- as many had assumed.  (Today's announcement, I've been told, was just a reiteration of what had already been decided.)
 
And so now there is only one hope for Ulpana: legislation.  There has been talk of this.  I've written about this on more than one occasion.  In fact, there was concern that the dissolving of the Knesset would not have given time for this legislation to go through.
 
Now there is time.  The sole issue is one of intent of the government in its new formulation.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
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Little Zakkai is home.  He's not yet "all clear" as some of that problem with air in the cavity surrounding  his lungs remains -- or remained when he was discharged yesterday.  As he was not having trouble breathing, and it was thought that there was no leak in his lungs, he was sent home with the hope that the situation would resolve itself.  He became much happier once the drain was removed from his thorax.  He will be closely monitored, returning to the hospital for a scan in about two weeks.

Here you see a somewhat confused or retiring little boy (all the transitions likely being bewildering) sitting in front of the very large cupcake his grateful parents got him for celebration.

Please G-d, may there be only good news from this point on.  Keep praying, with gratitude for his progress in recovering.

~~~~~~~~~~

And then other happy news of medical progress.  I had asked for prayers for a student in Toulouse who had been injured in the attack on the school and was at one point unconscious.  For this information I thank my friend, Sharmaine, in Paris:  Aaron Ben Leah is out of danger but still recovering.  Keep praying for him, please.  A group of women in Paris will be coming together tonight for prayers on his behalf, as well.

~~~~~~~~~~

Is this "progress"? 

At the Likud Central Committee Convention which opened yesterday in Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Netanyahu, just up from sitting shiva for his father, announced that for the sake of "governmental stability," elections would be held in four months. 

There had been talk of September 4 as the date, but he didn't specify this in his declaration yesterday.  That announcement he saved for the Cabinet meeting this morning.

~~~~~~~~~~

What Netanyahu also said was that he intended to form "a wide and stable coalition."  Which elicits from me a huge, "Uh oh!"

The redeeming information here has to do with what's going on right now inside the Likud Central Committee, where Netanyahu is being challenged by the right flank of the party.

While hesitant to overload my readers with too much political minutiae, I want to provide sufficient information to make a very complicated picture as clear as can be at this point.

Down the road, it will be the placement of right wing nationalists high on the Likud list that will determine the nature of the ruling party, and then influence the nature of the coalition.  Likud rules for establishing that list are controlled by the Central Committee -- thus my feelings of encouragement that a right wing inside the Committee is bent on challenging the prime minister.  The rules for the list are very complicated; I will not describe them here, as they are expected to change.

Anyone interested in learning more (not everyone will be) can see here:

http://www.timesofisrael.com/a-warning-shot-from-the-likud-right-in-netanyahus-direction/

What I will mention is that there is tremendous resistance to including Barak in the party in any way.

Indubitably, more to follow...

~~~~~~~~~~

In doing an analysis of the electoral situation at the end of last week, I took a look at possible reasons why Netanyahu might be seeking elections -- and a stronger mandate -- at this particular time. One of those was his intention to take on Iran.

And now I see that this thought, in different permutations, is being advanced by various analysts. 

According to Amnon Abramovich, who is considered to be a knowledgeable commentator, speaking on Channel 2 TV news at the end of last week, Netanyahu hopes to deal with Iran in September or October, while he is heading a transition government and Obama is occupied with his own elections.

~~~~~~~~~~

A transition government:  If all goes as expected, the Likud will garner the greatest number of mandates (seats) and Netanyahu will then be asked to form the new coalition.  This requires negotiations with various parties and takes some time.  That period of time, after the elections and before the new coalition is established, is transitional.

In a way it's a period without normal accountability. The electorate will have already voted, and there will not yet be in place the new members of the coalition who might call him to task.

But there are possible problems with acting during this period: according to High Court rulings, a transitional government should not make major decisions unless they are critical. The argument would be, of course, that this was critical.

Defense Minister Barak, following the announcement of early elections, made this statement:
"The political-security system will make decisions as needed, even under challenging circumstances.  We must separate the issue of Iran from the subject of elections.

"The moment of truth [re: Iran] is approaching.  The diplomatic- security system will make decisions if necessary." 

Was he referring to the transitional period?  It's not clear.  But Abramovich thinks so.

~~~~~~~~~~

According to Ron Ben-Yishai on YNet, the fact that the Israeli populace will heavily support Netanyahu in the elections, even as they know that he's in favor of striking Iran, will demonstrate that the country is behind him with regard to this.  This, says, Ben-Yishai, would give Israel -- should Netanyahu decide to act -- two months to move against Iran before winter rain clouds interfered with air force flights.  Two months during which a pre-election Obama would be reluctant to criticize Israel.

What the election also does, says Ben-Yishai, is give greater credibility to Israel's threat to hit Iran -- thus increasing the effectiveness of negotiations.  (Although I fail to see why negotiations should still be going on by then.)  It is, so to speak, the stick behind the West's carrot: Credible threat of attack is the only thing that might move Iran.

~~~~~~~~~~

The theory advanced by Yediot Aharonot is that Israel will bomb Iran immediately before the elections.

~~~~~~~~~~

Informed speculation, perhaps. But speculation, none-the-less -- as is clear from the diversity of scenarios being advanced.  No one really knows what will happen with regard to Iran, and that is precisely as it should be.

The prime minister's office is denying any connection between Iran and early elections.

~~~~~~~~~~

Before moving past the issue of elections, I will mention that Avigdor Lieberman, head of Yisrael Beitenu, had asked that the Knesset not be dissolved quite yet.  (He was not saying there should not be new elections.)  What he wanted to do was advance his version of the law to replace the Tal Law while the Knesset was still in session.  Other parties -- notably Kadima -- then began to come forward with their versions of this replacement law, however, and once this happened movement on legislation would not have been as speedy as Lieberman seemed to imagine it might be.

At the moment, this has all become moot: The Knesset House Committee has given the OK to the acceleration of legislation to dissolve the Knesset -- legislation that had already been approved by the Ministerial Committee on Legislative Affairs; it is expected to pass before the end of the day.

~~~~~~~~~~

The Ministerial Committee had agreed to submit several proposals for Tal Law replacements before the Knesset for preliminary votes before the Knesset dissolved, but they have been tabled.

And so, while this issue is temporarily being held in abeyance, it is a hot and divisive issue that will be revisited in due course.

~~~~~~~~~~

The Telegraph (UK) today cited an (unnamed) "senior Israeli military officer" with regard to a strong warning to Hezbollah, should it launch a war on Israel:

"Despite the inevitable international outcry, Israel would be left with no choice but to lay waste to swatches of southern Lebanon because Hezbollah has entrenched itself so deeply within the civilian population, he said.
"...'The situation in Lebanon after this war will be horrible,' the officer, a senior commander on Israel's northern border with Syria and Lebanon, said.

"'They will have to think about whether they want it or not. I hope that Iran will not push them into a war that Iran will not pay the price for but that Lebanon will.'

"...the officer, speaking on the condition of anonymity, suggested that Israel had taken too cautious an approach in the [previous] conflict, leading to the deaths of dozens of Israeli soldiers.

"No such mistake would be made in the next conflict, he said, especially as Hezbollah had built military sites in the centre of many villages and towns in southern Lebanon. Pointing to a satellite map of the town of Khiam, he identified a series of buildings that the movement had allegedly taken over for military purposes.

"In these villages where Hezbollah has infrastructure I will guess that civilians will not have houses to come back to after the war," he said.

"The Lebanese government has to take this into consideration. Many of the villages in southern Lebanon will be destroyed. Unfortunate, but we will have no other solution. The day after [we attack] the village will be something that it will take 10 years to rebuild."

~~~~~~~~~~

This, obviously, is a warning not to get involved if Israel attacks Iran.  But hopefully, in some measure, it also represents more with regard to policy.  The sound of it is most welcome.  

It has been maddening, watching the ways in which terrorist groups totally devoid of morality have twisted situations in combat that have left Israeli military frozen, for fear of hitting civilians. 

The IDF, the most moral of military forces in the world, must be able to fight its wars in order to win them.  As Hezbollah has deliberately placed its rockets -- by the tens of thousands -- in the heart of civilian areas, it is Hezbollah that must bear responsibility. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Please see the piece below by Barry Rubin.   It is particularly important if you read the NYTimes or know people who are influenced by it. But instructive even if this is not the case.

Rubin is writing about the new, highly biased Times correspondent in Israel, Jodi Rudoren.  Many of us knew what she was like from the moment she set foot here, because she put out a very biased twitter message. 

What Rubin is concerned about, here, is the way in which Rudoren describes the hunger strike launched by Palestinian Arabs in our prisons.

He shares what Rudoren has written on the subject:

"The newest heroes of the Palestinian cause are not burly young men hurling stones or wielding automatic weapons. They are gaunt adults, wrists in chains, starving themselves inside Israeli prisons."

And then he comments:
"This is not news coverage but revolutionary romanticism. And consider the implications:

" [] The article does not tell us that they are in prison for a reason. These are overwhelmingly people who have murdered or tried to murder civilians...

" [] They were in fact 'burly young men…wielding automatic weapons' when thrown into prison after trials. Most of them admit — indeed brag about — their crimes and make it clear that they would continue such deeds if released.

" [] Consequently, these people are not heroes to Palestinians, a macho society generally, because they are pitiful, gaunt, and starving but because they were heroes of an armed struggle defined in genocidal terms.

" [] The Palestinian Authority and Hamas hold these people as role models to young people so that they will be inspired to grow up to kill more Israelis.

" [] 'Gaunt adults, wrists in chains' seems pulled from the nineteenth century novels of Victor Hugo."

http://pjmedia.com/barryrubin/2012/05/04/new-york-times-coverage-of-israel-what-comes-after-ridiculously-biased/

~~~~~~~~~~

What is maddening -- truly, truly maddening -- here is that Israeli authorities are responding because the hunger strike is being used as a PR weapon against Israel.  (With the assistance of people like Rudoren, who make heroes of murderers.)

Already a committee has met with representatives of the prisoners and some concessions have been made: visits of family members from Gaza, restoring satellite television channels that had been removed, increased canteen rights and improved canteen conditions as well as transfer of sick prisoners by ambulance instead of military vehicles.. 

Can you imagine? Satellite television channels.  Nothing about this in international law. But they are on a hunger strike.  Some 10 prisoners have been hospitalized and the Arabs are saying that if any die it will be on our heads.  In fact, Islamic Jihad is saying any deaths may spark an intifada.

~~~~~~~~~~
 
There are some ridiculously small demands, such as being allowed to take photos with their families once a year.  But, hey, they're on a roll, so why not demand as much as possible?

And these vile people with blood on their hands also want to get degrees from Israeli educational institutions.  They had that right once and it was discontinued when certain authorities came to their senses.  But it's being considered again.

~~~~~~~~~~

My fury at all of this runs deep. 

~~~~~~~~~~

The big demand is the end to administrative  detention -- arrest without charges.  The simple fact is that we are at war.  When individuals are placed in administrative detention -- with the approval of a court! -- it is because they represent an immediate security threat to the nation.  No charges are brought publicly because to do so would be to publicly compromise our intelligence.

This will not be conceded.  It's too important.  Quite literally, innocent Jewish lives are at stake.

Just today, the High Court rejected the petition for release of two prisoners in administrative detention.

~~~~~~~~~~

Physicians for Human Rights condemned this decision, saying, "The court's decision is a death sentence for both of them,"  This is a prime example of what a crazy world we live in and what bleeding-heart far left thinking is like. 

Hello?  Israel isn't starving these men, they are starving themselves.

~~~~~~~~~~

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We here in Israel are being deluged by news and analysis regarding what are most likely to be the elections coming in September.  Although perhaps inevitable, this, in and of itself, is not a good thing.  There is, after all, the business of government to attend to, to report on and to analyze.

Having said that, however, I would like to offer my own take on what many are saying:

Prior to the announcement about beginning the elections process, a struggle had ensued between the Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Lieberman, head of the Yisrael Beitenu party, which is a part of the coalition.

 
Credit: Telegraph

Lieberman has a reputation as a maverick, who speaks out as he sees fit. 

The issue at hand in this instance was something known as the Tal Law, which provided military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox people who study in yeshivot.  That law had just been shot down by the High Court and the question was what was going to happen next.  There were those who insisted that all ultra-Orthodox would now have to serve, while many others saw it as essential that a new compromise bill -- perhaps permitting exemptions in limited cases and requiring alternate national service for others who did not wish to go into the IDF -- be brought forth.  These are contentious issues, and Netanyahu was doing a balancing act -- so as to not alienate the ultra-Orthodox.

( I will add that this has been the situation since the founding of the State, when Ben Gurion struck a deal with ultra-Orthodox parties in return for their political cooperation in other spheres.)

~~~~~~~~~~

Lieberman, who is solidly for universal IDF service, became restive with the pace of what was happening and began to make noise about this.  Some claim he threatened to break apart the coalition by leaving.  He says he did not threaten this but was simply pushing for resolution of the issue.

Whatever the case, it was immediately following this that Netanyahu began to talk about elections.  The conclusion drawn was that Netanyahu was showing Lieberman that he wouldn't permit him to either challenge his authority or damage the coalition -- he would, instead, dissolve the coalition and begin again.  And so we've had comments such as, "Boy, did the prime minister one-up Lieberman!"  and "This whole election thing is Lieberman's fault."  There has been some near-hysterical analysis about how the prime minister let the quarrel with Lieberman get out of hand in a way that should never have happened.

~~~~~~~~~~

My take is somewhat different: 

I have referred to Binyamin Netanyahu as a savvy politician.  He is that, but more: calculating and, on occasion, slick.  The coalition has been stable until now because he has managed to put out fires and control situations.  Had he wanted to control the Tal Law issue and retain his coalition in its present formulation I believe he would have found a way to do it. 

What I think happened is that he looked around and saw all the benefits for himself and his party in holding elections now, and utilized the tensions inside the coalition as a rationale for doing so.  I think he knows that he is now at the height of his popularity and didn't want to risk losing that -- he wanted to emerge even stronger than he is now.

~~~~~~~~~~

I have referred already to some of the pending situations that he may have had in mind (I cannot see into his mind!) in making this decision. 

One is contention with, and pressure from, Obama.  Some people are speculating that Obama will be so busy with his own electioneering process that he will have less time to meddle in our election if it is held in September.  (And make no mistake, the meddling would be an attempt to weaken Netanyahu.)  Others project that should Obama win a second term -- Heaven forbid -- he would be less able to pressure Israel if Netanyahu was able to point out that the election has given him a new, stronger than ever, mandate to adhere to certain policies.

The other, of course, is the issue of taking on Iran.  For this Netanyahu would hope for the strongest possible mandate from the people.

If indeed these are considerations of the prime minister, and if he seeks to act on behalf of the country with the greatest possible strength, then I am able to embrace the prospect of elections now. 

(I do remain mindful of the possibility that matters might work the other way: That he might, for example, refer to his increased mandate as giving rationale and support for greater concessions for "peace.")

~~~~~~~~~~

Two factors within this electoral process loom before me as significant.  The first is the question of lists for the election.  Each party presents a list, with those on the list, in descending order, gaining seats in the Knesset according to the percentage of votes that party garners.  The place on a list that a particular person secures is thus of critical importance.  If, for example, Kadima is projected by the polls to win 10 seats in the election, then being placed 13th on the list offers dismal prospects for inclusion in the Knesset.

The Likud will have a primary for determination of its list (not every party works this way).  It is not a cut and dried matter, but involves some very intense jockeying and political game-playing -- with the head of the list, Binyamin Netanyahu, doing his best to exert control. 

Those who have been members of the Likud party for a designated minimal period of time will be allowed to vote in the primaries.  Since the last election, there has been an active attempt by right wing factions within Likud to get more people to join, precisely to this end.  We now have to see how the Likud list evolves.  Having Moshe Ya'alon, Ze'ev Elkins, Tzipi Hotovely, Danny Danon, etc. as Likud MKs makes a difference -- and I am looking for, praying for, a preponderance of nationalists on the Likud list.  

~~~~~~~~~~

The other issue is the size and composition of the new coalition.  Netanyahu might opt to rely to a good measure on nationalist / religious/ or right wing parties, or might move towards the significant inclusion of center/leftist parties such as Kadima.  All of the talk about a stronger Likud and right wing Likud MKs may tempered by the nature of the full coalition -- as demands of coalition members must be taken into account. 

(Note here: a coalition must include at least 61 MKs.  As Likud, while strong, will not remotely reach this number, Netanyahu will then be required to invite other parties to join the coalition.  He might go with a narrow coalition, consisting primarily of parties that are in line to a significant degree with Likud policies, or he might offer to include a larger number of parties, akin to a "unity" situation, that includes parties at variance with Likud policies.  In each instance a coalition agreement is drawn up.  Positions on  such matters as the legitimacy of communities in Judea and Samaria will be affected by this.)

~~~~~~~~~~

Let me add, before closing, that I have read a legal opinion that the Tal Law will stay in effect, if the Knesset is dissolved this week, until after elections (and the formation of a new coalition).

What is more, certain business of the government will proceed -- such as the projected new policy on Ulpana that the government is committed to bringing shortly to the High Court.

The Knesset can be convened for legislative matters on the signatures of 25 MKs but, at present, I remain unclear as to what will happen with legislation being proposed to alter government policy on "Palestinian land" and communities in Judea and Samaria.  Can it proceed, or will it be frozen?

To be discovered in due course... Now my Shabbat preparations call to me.

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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.

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First, an update on little Zakkai, for whom the prognosis is excellent, but who is having a very hard time -- as are his parents.  At this point he's cranky and miserable.  And who can blame him? There's only so much, if anything, that you can explain to a toddler about how it will get better and how the nasty procedures he's enduring are necessary. 

I believe he's past the very worst of the post-surgical pain, which required a host of medications including morphine. And he no longer has to tolerate multiple IVs.  So, even though he doesn't realize it, he's getting there.  The main problem now has to do with the fact that the surgery punctured the barrier protecting the thoracic cavity, which houses the lungs.  This has caused "pneumothorax" -- air in the space between the lungs and the chest wall, which creates pressure on the lungs so they cannot expand fully.  The solution is a very uncomfortable suction tube that draws out the air.  Tests so far have indicated it must still be used.  But hopefully not for much longer...

~~~~~~~~~~

And then, a bit of clarification with regard to possible dates for these elections.  The High Holidays begin in mid-September, not October as I erroneously wrote yesterday, and end mid-October.  The coalition, and Likud in particular, are seeking elections before the holidays.  Other parties would prefer that they be mid-October, after the holidays -- which gives them more time to prepare, time Likud would prefer they not have.

It's easy to see why Likud wants to seize the day, as it were, and take advantage of the enormous lead they currently are showing in the polls: According to a Dahaf Institute poll released yesterday, Likud would garner 31 seats -- compared to its current 27, while Kadima -- which has 28 seats now -- would fall all the way back to 10 seats. 

With 17 seats, Labor would become the second largest faction.  Currently the Labor party, headed by Shelly Yachimovich (below), has 8 seats.  Remember that 5 people from Labor, including Barak, broke off to form the Independence (Ha'Atzmaut) party, which, the poll now indicates, would not make the electoral cut-off for getting into the Knesset. 

Credit: Haaretz

Third largest party would be Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu, with 13 seats, down from its current 15.  And following this would be Yair Lapid's new party, Yesh Atid, with 12 seats, and then Shas, which currently has 11 seats, down to 8.

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The same poll, however, shows that 67% of the people do not believe an election is really necessary now.

Benny Begin, who is a minister without portfolio, is the first one, and perhaps will be the only one, in the government to concur publicly, saying that early elections are a "mistake" because the coalition has been so stable.

 
Credit: Tess Scheflan

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According to the Times of Israel, MK Yitzhak Vaknin of Shas said: "If you held a secret ballot, 118 [of the 120] MKs would vote against early elections."  Don't know if the number would be that high.  The point is that not everyone is in favor, by a long shot.  But if people are not speaking up, it becomes moot, as party leaders have given the nod for elections.

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One of the questions that comes to mind with all of this is how it will affect Israeli government policy on/and readiness to act against Iran.

Defense Minister Barak says there will be no effect.  Writing on his Facebook page, he declared:

"Elections will not affect deliberations of the professional echelon [on] everything regarding the Iranian issue." Military force was still among the "options on the table."

Minister of Security Affairs Moshe Ya'alon reflected the same approach in a statement to Ma'ariv:

"The election will not be a consideration in the Iranian issue. If we need to make decisions we will make them."

~~~~~~~~~~

I'd like to believe this -- that politics won't affect security decisions, but it's a bit of a stretch.  There are so many potential factors to be considered. 

One source suggests that Netanyahu would be reluctant right before the election to initiate a strike on Iran that might bring retaliatory rockets from Hezbollah onto the northern population.  Another source says there are precedents for a major military strike prior to an election.

Maybe Netanyahu wants the increased strength and credibility of a large election victory in order to bolster himself -- domestically and internationally -- before he takes action on Iran.  Maybe he has promised Obama (this would be under duress) that he won't act until after the US elections, so our elections are irrelevant in this regard. 

We don't know...

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Another question, and it's a huge one, is what sort of coalition Netanyahu will put together following elections. A great deal rests on this.

Coalition Chair, Ze'ev Elkins, one of the really good guys, is worried.  He has told Arutz Sheva that:

"...the [Likud] party may have an interest in elections, but for the state elections are not the best thing, and I think that for the right wing they are not good.
"The current coalition is the most right-wing one that I can see on the horizon. I am afraid that the next coalition will be less nationalist, or that the specific weight of the nationalist forces within it will be less than what exists in this coalition."

 ~~~~~~~~~~

Minister of the Environment Gilad Erdan disagrees.  Arutz Sheva quotes him as saying that "the larger and stronger the Likud is, and the less dependent it is on its coalition partners, [the more] it will be able to stand firmly regarding its ideological positions, and not – as we saw in the past, regrettably – do things that do not reflect the Likud ideology.
"The stronger Likud is, the more we will be able to explain our right to this land in a strong and clear fashion..."

But it all depends on who is in the coalition.  Elkins is concerned that Kadima, under Mofaz, will join, as will Yair Lapid's new party, thus diminishing the relative weight of the Likud faction.

~~~~~~~~~~

These are the sort of news items -- among many others -- that make me highly dubious about the success of sanctions against Iran:
[] "The Islamic Republic News Agency, reporting this week from Beijing, says that the Chinese Shipping Association has announced that it guarantees the transportation of Iranian oil tankers.

"China is a big importer of oil especially from Iran, therefore Chinese ministries of finance and transportation, Chinese commission of development and reforms and insurance companies are to insure and guarantee transportation of Iranian oil tankers."

 http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=56660

[] The state-run General Insurance Corp. of India (GIC) has announced that it will provide third-party liability cover of up to $50 million for ships bringing crude from Iran.

"India, which depends on imports for about 80% of its energy needs, buys 14-15 million tons of crude oil a year from Iran..."

http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=56661

[] In spite of a UN arms embargo, Iran managed to import over $560 million in weapons over a three-year period. This is according to The Telegraph (UK), which has secured data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

According to Anna MacDonald, Oxfam Control Arms campaigns manager, Iran's success in accessing the international arms market showed the ineffectiveness of current restrictions.

"If you are an unscrupulous government, it's quite easy to find your way around them."

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4224335,00.html

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In light of all of the above, news coming out regarding Iran's expectations for the next round of negotiations is nothing short of sickening:

"Iran has made no secret of its hopes for the next round of nuclear negotiations with world powers: Pledges by the West to ease sanctions as a step toward deal making by Tehran....

"Iran has been careful about avoiding ultimatums in a possible sign that it sees the meeting scheduled for later this month in Baghdad as a stepping stone, not a showdown."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-nuclear-talk-agenda-aims-at-easing-western-sanctions/2012/05/02/gIQAr1EowT_story.html

So far the US has rejected the idea of reducing sanctions as a confidence building measure, but I'd be less than honest if I said I wasn't nervous about this possibility.  Hillary Clinton talks about a negotiating process. What I see is Iran conceding some small point, and then the US crowing about this and making that gesture, even though what has been conceding is sorely insufficient.

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In the mixed Arab-Jewish neighborhood of Abu Tur, yesterday, a bus carrying children aged 3 - 13 was set upon by local Arabs throwing cinderblocks.  The driver sped away -- no one was injured but the bus was damaged.

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In cooperation with the New Wave Research institute, Israel Hayom conducted a special poll last week for Independence Day.  The results are heartening:

Amongst the representative sample polled, 93% are proud to be Israeli and 70% are very proud. A full 80% would rather live here than anywhere else.

Gives a perspective that is different from that of most news reports, doesn't it?

Jerusalemites, those over 55 and the religious are happiest. 

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An ancient seal, dating back roughly 2,600 years to the time of the First Temple, has been found near the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.

It bears the name Matanyahu in Hebrew.

Credit: Israel Antiquities Authority

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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.

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Early elections, that is. 
 
The prospect has gone past the rumor stage, as Coalition Chairman Ze'ev Elkins (Likud), with the approval of most parties in both the coalition and the opposition, has just submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset on Wednesday.  It will be approved by the Ministerial Legislative Committee on Sunday, expediting the process, and it is expected to come up for a preliminary vote as early as Monday.
 
This is news that is less than an hour old as I write.  Earlier today Knesset Speaker Ruby Rivlin had announced that different versions of such a bill would be submitted on Monday by Labor and Meretz.  What we're seeing is that Likud and the ruling coalition is not only in favor, it is taking the lead.  Originally it was said that the motion would not be submitted until Netanyahu had completed his week of shiva on Sunday, but Likud is moving even faster than this -- although votes won't take place until after the prime minister's initial mourning period for his father is over.
 
The Knesset has to be dissolved before there can be elections -- right now elections are set for October 22, 2013.  Once the Knesset  -- Israel's 18th -- is dissolved, a recess will be declared; 25 or more MKs can call it into session, however, to attend to legislative matters.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
This coalition, headed by a politically astute Netanyahu, had for an extended period of time seemed exceptionally stable, so that predictions were that it might last for its complete term.   It is his political savvy that has motivated him now to sanction early elections -- so that he might take advantage of his current strength.  He, of course, fully anticipates that he will be returned to the head of the ruling coalition, and thus to the office of prime minister, after elections.  And if, indeed, that does turn out to be the course of events, he anticipates that he will be riding on even greater strength.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
I had cited a (rumored) prospective date for elections of August 4.  Turns out that it will likely be later than this -- with Likud said to favor September 4.  The idea here is to move before Shaul Mofaz, new head of Kadima, fully has his act together, and before Yair Lapid (below), who left his position as a TV news anchor to go into politics, fully consolidates his new party.  Whether he presents a real challenge of any sort, or is, as I strongly suspect, simply a flash-in-the-pan novice with a pretty face and a TV reputation remains to be seen.

Credit: Guardian
 
At the latest, elections are likely to take place before the Jewish High Holiday season, which this year begins mid-October.   I've heard thoughts that completing our electoral process before the US election is also a consideration.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Ehud Barak announced today that his party, Independence, which he formed in January 2011 when breaking away from Labor, would run on its own in the coming election -- not jointly with any other party. There is considerable question as to whether this party can garner enough mandates to pass the threshold for entering the Knesset.  What is significant here is that for a time there was talk of Netanyahu arranging for Barak to have a place on the Likud list that would ensure him a seat in the Knesset.  There was, however, tremendous opposition to this on the part of many in Likud, and this notion has apparently been abandoned.
 
(A note of explanation: parties, not individuals, run for the Knesset. These parties compile lists; the number of people on the list, in descending order, who end up with seats in the Knesset is determined by the percentage of votes the party receives.  Those high up on a Likud list will be assured of Knesset seats.)
 
It must be kept in mind, however, that someone who is not in the Knesset can still be appointed as a minister in the government; failure to achieve a Knesset seat would not mean that Barak could not still be Defense Minister in a new government.
 
All this, and more, is yet to be determined as the new political drama plays out.
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
I will mention here just a couple of articles that merit attention, and then move to get this out:
 
The first is by Khaled Abu Toameh, who consistently tells it straight.  In "Pro-Palestinian or Anti-Israel?" he writes:
"Pro-Palestinian groups and individuals in the US and Europe are doing Palestinians injustice by devoting all their energies only against Israel.

"There is a feeling in the West Bank and Gaza Strip that most of these groups and individuals are more interested in campaigning against Israel than helping the Palestinians.

"Being pro-Palestinian does not necessarily mean that one also has to be anti-Israel.

"...Those who care about the Palestinians should come to the Gaza Strip and work toward promoting human rights under Hamas -- of children, women, and journalists.

"It would help immensely if hundreds of pro-Palestinian activists came to the West Bank and Gaza Strip to teach Palestinian children English and expose them to the benefits of democracy and Western values, such as equal justice under law, free speech and a free press, and financial transparency and accountability

"It would also help immensely if these activists came to the West Bank and Gaza Strip to offer advice on, and help in building, proper government institutions, and in combating administrative and financial corruption.

"But as far as many of the pro-Palestinian activists in the West are concerned, the interests of the Palestinians are not as important as hating Israel."

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3035/pro-palestinian-anti-israel

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And then, there is the astute Fouad Ajami, writing in the Wall Street Journal, "Can Obama Run on His Foreign Policy Record?"

"...this administration has done its best to take the vital matter of America's place and interest in the foreign world off the board. The strategic retreats, the concessions made to Iran and Syria, the lack of faith in liberty's place in the order of nations have been hidden and brushed aside. (Emphasis added)

"...He heads into November with that complacent view of things. Always the cool, cerebral man unfazed by history's turbulence and pain.  The joke was on those foreign lands, in Paris and Berlin and Cairo, who embraced him as a new kind of American leader.

"He had present himself as a cosmopolitan man -- the un-George W. Bush. But the cosmopolitanism was just a veneer. Underneath the affectation of worldliness, there lay a calculating politician with superficial knowledge. They have caught on in Karachi and Cairo, where the star of 2008-2009 has come down to earth. And they've caught on in Tehran and Damascus, where tyranny has had little to fear from the standard-bearer of American power. (Emphasis added)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304050304577376424124490992.html

From where I sit, painfully, painfully true.

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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.

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